Gordon was his usual steady self in Game 1, ending up with 17 points and eight rebounds, and I’m going back to the well tonight for another do-it-all performance from AG in this very familiar matchup against the T’Wolves.
Most of all, this pick banks on Gordon’s ability to go up a level in the playoffs. He averaged 16.2 PPG and 7.6 RPG in last year’s postseason, and he’s a natural beneficiary in the paint when Nikola Jokic draws a swarm of Minnesota defenders.
Imagine looking at a total of 10.5 assists and thinking it’s too low—that’s how good Nikola Jokić is. It’s not the number itself that stands out, but the +118 price that really gives us the edge. I make this prop closer to -115 for Jokić to record 11 assists in Game 2 against the Timberwolves. Jamal Murray torched Minnesota in Game 1 with 30 points, and if the Timberwolves get more aggressive by blitzing him to force the ball out of his hands, it should lead to Jokić operating as the release valve. That puts him in prime position to find open teammates and rack up potential assists. The other factor is Rudy Gobert, who doesn’t apply enough pressure on Jokić and often allows him to operate like a quarterback in a clean pocket with clear passing lanes. Jokić finished with 21 potential assists in Game 1, which reinforces the upside in this spot.
As the Timberwolves have made the Western Conference Finals in each of the last two years, their franchise cornerstone has crashed the glass more aggressively in the postseason. In 2023-24, Edwards averaged 5.4 rebounds per game in the regular season. In 2024-25, he averaged 5.7. In the 2024 playoffs, Edwards grabbed at least six rebounds in 10 of 16 games, averaging seven across three series. In the 2025 plays, he grabbed at least six rebounds in 12 of 15 games, averaging 7.8 across three series.
Total PicksMIN 50, DEN 43
sandhog1 is #5 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (40-34-0) and +8300 units on the season.