Denver Nuggets Picks
5th in Northwest
(0 - 1)
Next Game
NO @ DEN Picks
NBA PicksThe newcomer went from a 10% preseason usage rate to 25% in the opener, near his career average. He's already gelling with his teammates better and should be more aggressive in finding his shot in game two.
The spread is big but Denver has covered two of the last three 11-plus spreads against New Orleans. I'd stick with it at close to 50%, since the moneyline isn't going to get low enough to be worthwhile. Denver lost the opener against a title contender, while New Orleans struggled in close loses to two 60-loss teams.
Yves Missi and Derik Queen are the only obstacles between Nikola Jokic and a triple-double Saturday night. The Pelicans are also playing the second night of a back-to-back after facing Utah in Salt Lake City, adding another altitude challenge. Denver is trading at a high probability, but I still see value on the home team at 86%.
Denver's offense will miss Spencer Jones and possibly sharpshooter Cam Johnson. New Orleans saw interior bright spot Yves Missi leave Friday's game with injury, all of which should keep point totals low.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus
41% picking New Orleans
Total Picks NO 199, DEN 284
53% picking New Orleans vs Denver to go Under
Total PicksNO 152, DEN 170
NO @ DEN · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
T. Murphy III
(SF)
o15.5 Points Scored
17.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
24.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Queen
(C)
o11.5 Points Scored
12.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
17.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o14.5 Points Scored
16.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
13.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
C. Braun
(SG)
o12.5 Points Scored
13.32 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
10.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
N. Jokic
(C)
u27.5 Points Scored
26.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
9.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
17.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
T. Murphy III
(SF)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
4.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
17.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Murray
(PG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
4.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
13.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Murray
(PG)
o5.5 Total Rebounds
5.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
9.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Fears
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
8.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Z. Williamson
(PF)
u5.5 Total Rebounds
4.80 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
7.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Braun
(SG)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
5.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
4.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
N. Jokic
(C)
o12.5 Total Rebounds
12.50 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-9.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Z. Williamson
(PF)
o2.5 Total Assists
3.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
23.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Braun
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
13.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Fears
(PG)
o2.5 Total Assists
3.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
12.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Queen
(C)
o2.5 Total Assists
3.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
10.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o3.5 Total Assists
3.52 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
8.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Gordon
(PF)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
7.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Murray
(PG)
o5.5 Total Assists
6.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
T. Murphy III
(SF)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
5.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
T. Murphy III
(SF)
o2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
4.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Murray
(PG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.52 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
4.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-5.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Gordon
(PF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-8.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
N. Jokic
(C)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-10.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. Murray
(PG)
o2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-13.1%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
NO @ DEN · Trends
Top User Picks
More Picks
'DKSTACKER' is picking Denver to cover (-11.5)
DKSTACKER is #1 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'DKSTACKER' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Over (239.5)
DKSTACKER is #1 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'ckope1' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Over (239.5)
ckope1 is #1 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'Technique' is picking New Orleans to cover (+11.5)
Technique is #10 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Technique' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Under (238.5)
Technique is #10 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Enelra18' is picking New Orleans to cover (+11.5)
Enelra18 is #10 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'Enelra18' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Over (239.5)
Enelra18 is #10 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'bestfriendbb' is picking New Orleans to cover (+11.5)
bestfriendbb is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'bjs129' is picking Denver to cover (-11.5)
bjs129 is #3 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'bjs129' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Over (239.5)
bjs129 is #3 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'jaw4423' is picking New Orleans to cover (+11.5)
jaw4423 is #5 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'PaullyWallnuts' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Over (238.5)
PaullyWallnuts is #5 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'PaullyWallnuts' is picking Denver to cover (-11.5)
PaullyWallnuts is #5 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'bruisers69' is picking Denver to cover (-11.5)
bruisers69 is #6 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'plastikman200' is picking Denver to cover (-11.5)
plastikman200 is #7 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'plastikman200' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Under (239.5)
plastikman200 is #7 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'YAL15M' is picking New Orleans to cover (+11.5)
YAL15M is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'YAL15M' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Over (239.5)
YAL15M is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'CygXanadu' is picking New Orleans to cover (+11.5)
CygXanadu is #9 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'CygXanadu' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Over (239.5)
CygXanadu is #9 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'steelsteve' is picking Denver to cover (-11.5)
steelsteve is #9 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'steelsteve' picks New Orleans vs Denver to go Over (239.5)
steelsteve is #9 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.