Denver Nuggets Picks
4th in Northwest
(1 - 1)
Next Game
GS @ DEN Picks
NBA PicksI project a win by double digits, so I’ll trade the spread up to -9.5. The Nuggets have won eight straight home games against the Warriors, winning by an average of 10.7 points and shooting better than 50% from the field in five of them.
This line is set far too low, and I’ll trade it to 29.5. He finished with only 17 PRA across 29 minutes in his debut, but Lendeborg has averaged 38.5 PRA across 36.5 minutes over his last two appearances.
Lendeborg sits behind only Steph Curry for team lead in scoring (18.7), and he leads the Dubs in rebounds (8.0). The rookie is the second leading facilitator at 4.3 assists per game.
I’ll trade this scoring prop up to 11.5 points.
Brazile’s 17-point game came with Cameron Johnson sidelined, and Johnson is expected to sit again tonight. Alpha Diallo is also sidelined, and Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther have yet to make their season debuts.
Minutes in the 25-30 range could be available for Brazile, and given Golden State’s porous defense, he should be in for another strong performance.
Who's guarding Nikola Jokic here? The 6-foot-7 Draymond Green, a 40-year-old Al Horford, or rookie Yaxel Lendeborg? Golden State has serious roster concerns, though Stephen Curry should return after resting Saturday. Denver's defenders can blitz Curry without worrying about secondary playmaking from his supporting cast. That helps offset the Nuggets' defensive flaws, making Denver a strong play at 72%.
Polymarket doesn’t have a triple-double prop, so I’m trading one the old-fashioned way by taking the Over on Jokic’s assists and rebounds at 10 and 12, respectively. Combining these props into one combo yields a 2.62x multiplier, but I like these props even better paired with the spread pick.
Across his last eight matchups with Golden State, Jokic has averaged 30.5 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists, recording a triple-double in half of those appearances.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus58% picking Golden State vs Denver to go Under
Total PicksGS 166, DEN 230
GS @ DEN · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Green
(PF)
o6.5 Points Scored
8.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
20.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Murray
(PG)
u23.5 Points Scored
21.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
19.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
B. Podziemski
(SG)
u15.5 Points Scored
14.76 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
18.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
N. Jokic
(C)
u27.5 Points Scored
25.73 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
16.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Melton
(PG)
o9.5 Points Scored
10.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
13.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
GS
Y. Lendeborg
(SF)
u14.5 Points Scored
13.58 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
12.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. DeRozan
(SF)
u13.5 Points Scored
12.55 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
12.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
G. Santos
(PF)
o8.5 Points Scored
9.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
12.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Gordon
(PF)
u15.5 Points Scored
14.91 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
11.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
C. Braun
(SG)
o11.5 Points Scored
12.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
8.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
DEN
T. Brazile
(PF)
u9.5 Points Scored
9.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
5.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
S. Curry
(PG)
u24.5 Points Scored
24.06 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
18.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Braun
(SG)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
5.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
13.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
S. Curry
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
12.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Melton
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
2.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
GS
Y. Lendeborg
(SF)
o6.5 Total Rebounds
7.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
6.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
N. Jokic
(C)
o12.5 Total Rebounds
12.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
DEN
T. Brazile
(PF)
o6.5 Total Rebounds
6.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
G. Santos
(PF)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Gordon
(PF)
o5.5 Total Rebounds
5.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
B. Podziemski
(SG)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
4.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-13.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Green
(PF)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
4.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Murray
(PG)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
4.31 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
N. Jokic
(C)
u10.5 Total Assists
8.91 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
18.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Murray
(PG)
u6.5 Total Assists
5.49 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
14.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Melton
(PG)
u2.5 Total Assists
2.19 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
11.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
GS
Y. Lendeborg
(SF)
u3.5 Total Assists
2.88 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
11.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Braun
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
8.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
B. Podziemski
(SG)
o3.5 Total Assists
3.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
7.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Gordon
(PF)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
2.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
0.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
S. Curry
(PG)
o4.5 Total Assists
4.54 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-5.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Green
(PF)
o5.5 Total Assists
5.55 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-11.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
B. Podziemski
(SG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
2.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
9.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. Murray
(PG)
u3.5 3-Pointers Made
2.95 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
7.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
C. Braun
(SG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.08 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Green
(PF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
5.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
GS
Y. Lendeborg
(SF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
4.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
G. Santos
(PF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
4.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Melton
(PG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-2.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Gordon
(PF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-8.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
N. Jokic
(C)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-11.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
S. Curry
(PG)
u4.5 3-Pointers Made
4.12 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
GS @ DEN · Trends
Top User Picks
More Picks'CygXanadu' picks Golden State vs Denver to go Over (234.5)
CygXanadu is #1 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'moneyformo' picks Golden State vs Denver to go Over (236.5)
moneyformo is #2 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'jaw4423' picks Golden State vs Denver to go Over (236.5)
jaw4423 is #3 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Enelra18' picks Golden State vs Denver to go Over (236.5)
Enelra18 is #4 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'liveactiondockery' picks Golden State vs Denver to go Under (236.5)
liveactiondockery is #5 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Smmiou07' picks Golden State vs Denver to go Over (236.5)
Smmiou07 is #6 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Gunner28' picks Golden State vs Denver to go Under (234.5)
Gunner28 is #7 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Raw72' picks Golden State vs Denver to go Under (236.5)
Raw72 is #9 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.