And while Murray is coming off his best game of the playoffs so far (32 points), he’s only topped 34.5 points, rebounds, and assists in two of his last four and now must face the best defense in the NBA. Minnesota ranked first in the NBA this season in both points allowed (106.5) and defensive rating (109.0) and has a nightmare trio of perimeter defensive options. As a result, the T-Wolves held teams to the third-fewest 3-pointers per game this season (11.4).
Jokic averaged 16.2 rebounds per game in the opening round series and put an exclamation mark on the series with 20 rebounds in Game 5. In five games against the Lakers, he had at least 12 rebounds in every game with Over 12.5 in four of five.
Ant's usage has been wild with 39.5 minutes, 20.5 field goals attempts, and 7.8 free throw attempts — and it’s only increasing with back-to-back games of over 40 minutes and over 30 combined field goals and free throw attempts. Coming off a 40-point game to send the Suns to the golf course early, Edwards should be able to build on the momentum.
The Timberwolves welcome Aaron Gordon shot attempts. They let Karl-Anthony Towns guard Nikola Jokic, largely one-on-one, with Rudy Gobert on Gordon so Gobert can float further from his assignment and provide the defensive help that separates Minnesota from the rest of the league. Gobert will leave Gordon open, especially when Gordon spaces to the corner. In this five-game matchup last postseason, Gordon hit a 3-pointer in three of the games, going 4-of-12 overall. He will get his looks, and they may be uncontested. All he has to do is make one.
Towns averaged 19.25 points against the Suns, a worse defense than the Nuggets but also a worse matchup for Towns. Against Denver, he should feast. The Nuggets will sell out to stop Anthony Edwards more often than Phoenix did, learning from the Suns’ mistake. That will create chances for Towns. Furthermore, he was not hunting his shot until late in that first-round series, taking 16 total in the first two games and then averaging 16.5 in the last two. His lower-body strength is gradually returning after his meniscus surgery just seven weeks ago. That will help Towns most on the offensive end.
Minnesota should have two of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards on the court for all of Jamal Murray’s minutes. Their intention will be to force the ball out of his hands, especially in the fourth quarter. Murray will have open teammates capable of knocking down 3-pointers, namely Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, not to mention Nikola Jokic open on some rolls. Even if Murray has only two assists heading into the final frame, a Timberwolves defensive emphasis could boost it.
Conley picks his moments. When the Timberwolves absolutely need a bucket, when the game is teetering in the clutch, when tensions are highest, those are the moments Conley squares up from 3. And those always seem to go in, especially late in the season. Conley shot 44.1% from deep following the All-Star Break on 5.6 threes per game. But if the logical adjustment for Minnesota to consider is more Nickeil Alexander-Walker and less Conley, then the veteran point guard will not get looks in those moments. His scoring could plummet.
Minnesota used the week before the playoffs to come out of the gates to a 61-51 lead against the Suns in Game 1. Before closing that series, the Wolves openly wanted to get another week off before this round. Meanwhile, the Nuggets may have spent much of this week catching their breath, thanks to the minutes their starters logged to slip by the Lakers. Four of their starters averaged more than 39 minutes in what was supposed to be an easier series. Denver can trust its clutch performances as long as Jamal Murray is on the court. Minnesota knows it cannot wait to find its footing.
Total PicksMIN 359, DEN 177
Ducnrun13 is #1 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (48-35-3) and +13250 units on the season.
elodoya24 is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (36-22-1) and +12150 units on the season.
BeeRAD is #2 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (41-24-1) and +11400 units on the season.
Jtdc76 is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (18-9-0) and +9150 units on the season.
jr5601 is #5 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (23-19-1) and +8900 units on the season.
hogster is #7 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (46-38-2) and +8450 units on the season.
Alexandr1966 is #8 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (42-32-2) and +8250 units on the season.
pastorhollywood is #9 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (35-19-2) and +7580 units on the season.
rcarr31 is #9 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (24-20-2) and +8250 units on the season.