Denver Nuggets Picks
Northwest
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DEN @ OKC Picks
NBA PicksHartenstein's assist prop is playable up to 58%. He recorded three assists in only 17 minutes Tuesday, and his playing time has historically increased against Denver. More minutes should mean more chances to facilitate for OKC's loaded offense.
Under 236.5 is playable down to 234.5. OKC has multiple bodies to throw at Jokic and elite perimeter defenders for Murray, while both teams ranked near the top of the NBA in half-court frequency last season.
Oklahoma City's defense just gave Victor Wembanyama problems, and Nikola Jokic is next. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein provide the size to challenge Denver's star, while Aday Mara and Alex Caruso add even more defensive versatility. A 74% probability is steep against a Western Conference contender, but I still see value in the Thunder, pricing Oklahoma City closer to 77% favorites on Thursday.
A slower half-court game should keep Gordon around the glass while giving Hartenstein plenty of touches as a facilitator. If both bigs handle those roles, their props can cash naturally within a lower-scoring Nuggets-Thunder script.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus66% picking Denver vs Oklahoma City to go Over
Total PicksDEN 293, OKC 148
DEN @ OKC · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
237.5 Total
234.82 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.7
DIFFERENCE
6.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
I. Hartenstein
(C)
o8.5 Points Scored
9.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
13.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o12.5 Points Scored
13.82 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
12.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. McCain
(SG)
o10.5 Points Scored
11.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
M. Bagley III
(PF)
o5.5 Points Scored
6.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
5.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Williams
(SG)
o18.5 Points Scored
19.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
C. Braun
(SG)
o10.5 Points Scored
10.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-4.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
C. Johnson
(PF)
o12.5 Points Scored
12.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-5.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Mitchell
(SG)
o10.5 Points Scored
10.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-7.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
19.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
S. Jones
(SF)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
2.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
8.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Braun
(SG)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
4.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
6.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
I. Hartenstein
(C)
o7.5 Total Rebounds
8.49 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
1.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Johnson
(PF)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.87 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
0.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
M. Bagley III
(PF)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.82 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-2.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Mitchell
(SG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
2.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Wallace
(SG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
2.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-4.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Murray
(PG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-5.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander
(PG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.87 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-7.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Caruso
(SG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
2.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-9.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Holmgren
(C)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
15.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o2.5 Total Assists
3.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
12.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
I. Hartenstein
(C)
o2.5 Total Assists
3.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
5.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Wallace
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
5.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Braun
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
1.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Johnson
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-0.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
M. Bagley III
(PF)
o0.5 Total Assists
0.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Mitchell
(SG)
o2.5 Total Assists
3.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-1.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Williams
(SG)
o4.5 Total Assists
4.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-2.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Caruso
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-5.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. DeRozan
(SF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
11.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
C. Holmgren
(C)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
C. Johnson
(PF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
2.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-3.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
S. Gilgeous-Alexander
(PG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
N. Jokic
(C)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.51 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-11.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. Murray
(PG)
o2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-13.1%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
DEN @ OKC · Trends
Top User Picks
More Picks'RusticHunk' picks Denver vs Oklahoma City to go Under (235.5)
RusticHunk is #1 on picking games that Oklahoma City is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'TPSreport' picks Denver vs Oklahoma City to go Under (234.5)
TPSreport is #3 on picking games that Oklahoma City is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'norkbills23' picks Denver vs Oklahoma City to go Over (235.5)
norkbills23 is #5 on picking games that Oklahoma City is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.