NBA Picks

We backed this Tyler Herro prop against the Charlotte Hornets just a couple of games ago, and he cleared it comfortably with nine assists. There’s a strong case to go right back to it in the rematch, especially at the current price, as many of the same conditions still apply. This is a meaningful game for the Southeast Division standings, and Miami comes in well-rested with two days off and another off day tomorrow. That setup should allow the starters to play full minutes, putting Herro firmly in the 30+ minute range. The production also isn’t fluky. Herro is averaging over nine potential assists per game across his last five, which stands out when his line is sitting at 4.5 at plus money. From a matchup standpoint, he should be able to manipulate Moussa Diabate in pick-and-roll coverage and create easy potential assists, particularly with Kel’el Ware as a lob threat. I price the Over at -145, making this a spot worth attacking again.

Charlotte has just three losses in its last 11, and are holding teams to 105.1 points per game, which is third in the NBA over that time.

The Wizards have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Detroit Pistons.. The Detroit Pistons have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Chet Holmgren has averaged 10.9 rebounds per game since the All-Star break, the eighth-most in the NBA. The OKC center has logged Over 8.5 boards in seven of his last eight outings.

The Orlando Magic are on the second night of a back-to-back, but I’m still backing them at +9.5, as I make this line closer to Thunder -7. Jalen Suggs is the key to this matchup. He’s one of the top point-of-attack defenders in the league and has the ability to make life difficult for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, potentially forcing him into a less efficient performance. A major strength of Oklahoma City’s offense is getting into the paint, collapsing the defense, and kicking out to shooters. Orlando is better equipped than most teams to handle that style. Their length and positional size allow them to stay home on shooters without overcommitting to drives. With their defensive personnel, size, and the benefit of home court, the Magic have the tools to keep this game competitive and stay within the 9.5-point spread.

OG Anunoby ranks among the NBA’s elite 3-and-D weapons, but he’s much more than a role player – and this combo Over feels like a value pick, with Anunoby nailing it in three of his last four games.

Just look at his numbers this month – OG is averaging 19.2 PPG and shooting 45% from beyond the arc. He dropped 25 points on the Pacers last week, and there’s a path to more offense with Brunson listed as doubtful. I see Anunoby chipping in on the boards too, where he’s grabbed 5+ rebounds in six of his past nine outings. 

This one could get out of hand early given the spread, but the value is on the total. The Pacers are a brutal offensive matchup against the Knicks’ No. 5-ranked defense and shouldn’t generate much scoring. New York could also be without Jalen Brunson, and with the Pacers, Nets, and Wizards coming up, the Knicks have every reason to limit his minutes or sit him entirely. Take away their top-scoring option, and this total starts to look inflated. The Under is firmly in play.

The Timberwolves are expected to see a decline in plays in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Phoenix Suns).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, but the Minnesota Timberwolves grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.. The matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns may be a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 1.6 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the NBA).

The Timberwolves are expected to see a decline in plays in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Phoenix Suns).. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, but the Minnesota Timberwolves grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

The Cavs are in a prime bounce-back spot after an embarrassing loss to the Mavs as a 15-point favorite. They’ve consistently responded with authority in these situations, going 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after an outright loss with multiple blowout wins. The Bucks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA, ranking 29th in net rating over their last 10 games. Even with Giannis in the lineup they've been pathetic with recent home losses of 27, 18 and 15.

The matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a hard one for 3-point attempts; the other team's starting SFs have averaged the 3rd-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (3.9).. The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 6th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Bucks.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the league with a mere 8.7 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Jamal Murray had a brutal showing against the Lakers, finishing with just five points on 1 of 14 shooting. In eight games prior, he averaged 29.9 points and scored 25+ six times. He's averaging a career-best 25.1 points per game, and he’s scored 25+ in 30 of 63 games.

The Denver Nuggets check in as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.. The 5th-fastest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Nuggets.. The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 9th-quickest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should raise possessions for the Nuggets.

The Spurs have run a gauntlet of contenders in recent weeks and after a close road win at L.A. last night, San Antonio is set up for a classic letdown spot as double-digit road chalk. Sacramento heads into this homestand with some heat. It’s won four of the past five games while covering in all of those outings. Sacramento is 6-3 ATS when getting 10 or more points at home this season.

De’Aaron Fox is trading at +115 for the Over 19.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -150. If there are concerns about a potential blowout, they’re already baked into the projection—this projection assumes Fox plays under 30 minutes. On the second night of a back-to-back, if the Spurs choose to limit anyone, it’s more likely to be Victor Wembanyama, which could shift even more offensive responsibility onto Fox. There’s also a strong narrative element with Fox facing his former team in Sacramento, but this isn’t just narrative-driven—it shows up in the data. Fox consistently plays with increased aggression in this matchup, with his usage rate jumping by over 7% against the Kings. All signs point to Fox taking on a heavy scoring role, making this price too good to pass up.