NBA Picks

The Washington Wizards aren't even trying at this point, while the Philadelphia 76ers are healthy and motivated to move up the Eastern Conference standings. Even on the road and with a large spread, I like Philadelphia to cover tonight.

With respect to shooting, the 76ers's poor 46.2% field goal rate measures as the 9th-lowest in the league this year.

Quin Snyder’s group is 8-2 in their last 10, and they’ve covered tonight’s spread in back-to-back contests. The Atlanta Hawks have also won four straight versus the Orlando Magic, covering the four-point spread in all of those meetings.

Atlanta has been the far better team, ranking 6th in net rating over the last 10 games compared to Orlando at 23rd. The Hawks have also dominated this matchup, going 3-0 straight up and ATS this season, including double-digit wins in the last two games. This is a brutal scheduling spot for the Magic, playing their second game of a back-to-back and third in four nights, with three of their starters playing minutes into the high 30s last night. Atlanta is on a 12-2 ATS tear as a favorite.

Boston’s top trio of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Derrick White have shared the court just six times over the last 10 games. The team is 5-1 straight up when all three play together, and the C’s won each of those games by five points or more. 

Boston’s love of the three-point shot will be beneficial tonight against Miami’s lackluster perimeter defense. Boston has made and attempted the third-most three-pointers and ranks ninth in three-point percentage this season. Over the last 10 games, the Heat have surrendered the 10th-most made three-pointers and sixth-highest three-point percentage.

Boston loves to shoot the three-ball, but volume has been King for the C’s, as the team ranks fifth in field goal attempts but just 20th in field goal percentage. Over the last 10, Miami has given up the fifth-most points and eighth-highest field goal percentage.

The matchup against the Miami Heat is a positive one for shots from the field; the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (12.2).. The Heat have played at the speediest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased plays for the Celtics.. The Celtics rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup against the Miami Heat may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a monstrous 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the league).

The New York Knicks have won their last six as double-digit favorites and their last eight have been against teams currently .400 or worse. They’ve only covered in about half of those games, however. Meanwhile, the depleted Memphis Grizzlies have lost their last six as double-digit dogs and covered just two of those. Memphis is already without seven players with a combined 133 starts this season who are now out for the year.

This year when they are on the road, opposing starting PGs have totaled 22.8 points per game (2nd-highest in the league) against the Memphis Grizzlies, identifying this as a strong matchup for offensive performance.. The New York Knicks will likely get a boost in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 5th-fastest tempo home team in the league this year (the Grizzlies).. Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Knicks rank 5th-best in in the league with 12.9 offensive boards per game this year.. The matchup against Memphis is a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted an enormous 5.2 free throws per game this year when the Grizzlies have the home court advantage (most in the NBA).

Indiana no longer needs to emphasize losing. But know who should? The Chicago Bulls should emphasize losing. They are barely holding off the Bucks for the No. 9 spot in the lottery. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Bulls have lost four straight, including at Memphis as 5-point favorites.

Both the Bulls and Pacers are terrible defensively and play at a fast pace. They're also eliminated from the playoffs and will likely give even less effort on D which is why the total is set at a whopping 249. That has me taking the Over 24.5 points for Indiana's leading scorer Pascal Siakam (23.8 ppg). The All-Star forward has been dealing with lingering knee pain but is probable for tonight. He's fresh off a 30-point performance against Miami and has dropped 25+ points in five of his last nine games. 

The Rockets have the edge at every position tonight. Is Kyle Kuzma really going to slow down Kevin Durant? Houston should take advantage of Milwaukee’s ambivalence early, and the second half should become an unpredictable exhibition.

This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SGs have shot 24.8% on threes (lowest in the NBA) against the Rockets, designating this as a hard matchup.. The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.. The Houston Rockets have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Bucks.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.7 offensive boards per game this year.

If sticking it to the Raptors again wasn’t enough motivation to feed him the ball, DeRozan is just nine points away from 17th on the NBA’s All-Time scoring list and 51 points out of 16th. Sacramento should be actively looking to get DeRozan involved early on with little else to play for. Projections are mixed on the Kings star. Some sit just shy of 17 points while others call for closer to 19 points for DeRozan. Given his rest, usage and motivations, I like him to top 17.5 points tonight.

This sets up as a strong bounce-back spot for Toronto, who can’t afford to slip further in the standings. We saw a similar scenario about a week ago when the Raptors lost to the Suns, then turned around the next night and beat the Jazz in Utah by 16. While recent form favors Toronto (10th vs 26th in net rating over the last 10 games), their home dominance stands out even more—they rank 3rd in net rating at home since the start of March. Sacramento, meanwhile, continues their race to the bottom, with five double-digit losses in their last seven games.

Anytime Jokic is playing significant minutes these days, he should be expected to collect a bounty of rebounds. He has cleared this lofty prop in five straight games and in eight of his last 10, with one of those exceptions being a 25-minute jaunt against the 76ers.

Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is always filling up the stat sheet but his work on the glass lately has been especially impressive. The superstar center has pulled down at least 14 boards in five-straight games and is averaging 16.4 rpg over that span. Tonight, Jokic and the Nuggets are coming off two days of rest and travel to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz tonight. Since the start of January, Utah is 26th in the league in rebounding rate (48.3%) while playing at the second-fastest pace. That should lead to plenty of rebounding opportunities for Joker. 

The San Antonio Spurs’ 7-footer averaged a dozen rebounds throughout March on 17.3 rebounding chances across 15 games and closed the month with 16, 15, 15, and 15 boards in his last four outings. It helps that the Spurs defense is tightening the screws down the stretch, checking foes to less than 44% success from the floor. Player projections call for Wemby to dominate the window again, with forecasts between 12.6 and 14.2 rebounds tonight.

The race for NBA MVP is heating up and it's become clear that Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama wants it. The ultra talented big man is coming off a a game where he scored 41 points on a season-high 27 shots while adding 16 boards. Wemby is averaging 28.2 ppg over the last three weeks and has grabbed at least 15 boards in four straight games. He should dominate the Warriors who are weak in the frontcourt with Kristaps Porzingis, Quinton Post, and Al Horford all injured.