NBA Picks

It’s a simple equation, really. No Joel Embiid for Philadelphia plus no Jarrett Allen for Cleveland equals a monster night for Evan Mobley. Mobley finished with 24 points and eight rebounds in yesterday’s loss to the Boston Celtics, and I’m counting on similar production here in the starting center role. 

He’s off to a bright start in March, with 19.7 PPG and 8.7 RPG, and there’s room to push those numbers up against a 76ers team that’ll be turning to backups for big minutes tonight. Mobley even posted a 17-13 line in Philly last month.

The Cavaliers are on the second night of a back-to-back against the Sixers and are currently 12.5-point favorites, so the main concern here is how many minutes James Harden will actually play. Even with that in mind, I’m still comfortable backing this prop because we maintain a solid edge on Harden even if his minutes are slightly reduced due to the scheduling spot. Harden is one of the best in the league at manipulating drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. With the young Adem Bona expected to handle most of the minutes at center for Philadelphia due to injuries, this sets up well for Harden to create opportunities for his bigs, particularly as a lob passer. The challenge for the Sixers is that it won’t just be Evan Mobley they need to account for, as Jarrett Allen also appears set to return to the lineup. No matter who Harden finds in those actions, they should be in position to convert potential assists. I price this prop at -135. 

Nikola Jokic goes up against an OKC frontcourt that is running short on size. Hartenstein is sidelined with a calf injury and Holmgren is battling illness, leaving him as questionable. Along with backup Branden Carlson’s absence, 6-foot-9 Jaylin Williams is the lone big left to battle Jokic on the glass. Jokic has been positioned for 20.6 rebounding chances per game since the All-Star break (fifth most) and projections sit between 11.9 and 13.3 boards.

Nikola Jokic is trading at -102 for the Over 27.5 points, and that’s a number we’re going to hit the button on, as I price it closer to -165. This bet is all about the injury report because, on the surface, it looks like an MVP showdown against the top defense in the NBA with the bigs to slow Jokic down. However, those aren’t necessarily the matchups he’ll face tonight. Isaiah Hartenstein is out, and Chet Holmgren is questionable with an illness, which significantly weakens the Thunder frontcourt Jokic will be going up against. Even if Holmgren suits up while under the weather, not having Hartenstein available is a major loss for Oklahoma City’s defense against Jokic. On the Nuggets’ side, Jamal Murray is questionable with a sprained ankle. If Murray is unable to go, Jokic’s usage would likely increase significantly.

The Grizzlies have won two of their last three away from FedExForum, easily covering the spread against the Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers. 

Memphis has scored 112+ points in 15 of its last 16 games, showing this offense is producing regardless of who's in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Nets have allowed at least 112 points in 13 of their last 16 and rank dead-last in defensive rating over the past 10 games. Memphis also owns a major edge from three, ranking 4th in 3-point percentage in that 10-game span, while Brooklyn sits 29th in 3-point percentage allowed.

This is my favorite prop on the board for Monday. There are several reasons to like this spot against Utah. The Jazz have an undersized frontcourt and consistently struggle with defensive rotations. With Green operating as a facilitator on the perimeter, he should be able to pull Utah’s limited rim protection away from the basket, opening up driving lanes and cutting opportunities for the Warriors’ supporting cast to convert his potential assists. Utah’s lack of size should also allow Green to collect plenty of defensive rebounds, push the pace, and create easy assist chances with hit-ahead passes in transition. And if that wasn’t enough, Stephen Curry is listed as probable. That’s a major boost for this prop, as Curry and Green run a ton of actions together, and Curry is one of the best players in the league at converting the looks Green creates. I price this prop closer to -220.

Strong defense certainly hasn’t been a hallmark of the Utah Jazz this season as the team ranks dead last in defensive rating. Utah is 37-27 to the Over, including an NBA-high 22-10 at home. Utah has hit the Over in three of its last five at Delta Center.

Golden State’s defense has been better than Utah’s, but the Warriors are 36-27 to the Over and 12-5 as the road favorite. The Warriors have hit the Over in seven of their last 10 games, and the teams have gone Over in three of their last four head-to-head matchups.

Josh Hart is an engine for this New York offense, especially in tight turnarounds. His energy on the boards and dribble-drive attack lead to high-percentage looks. Hart also bounces back from poor performances, averaging 13.5 points over his last 11 games in which he failed to register double digits. Projections all sit north of 11 points with a ceiling closer to 12.

The 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play team in the NBA this year has been the Clippers.. The Clippers will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the league over the last 25 games (the Knicks).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the LA Clippers rank 1stworst in in the league while playing at home with just 8.4 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.