NBA Picks

Desmond Bane is trading at -120 for the over 3.5 assists, and that’s a number I’m happy to attack as I price it closer to -230. Bane is averaging 9.3 potential assists over his last three games, which is a strong indicator of playmaking volume when the line is set at just 3.5. He’s facing a Mavericks team that lacks a true point-of-attack defender to slow him down. With how well he’s been shooting the ball lately, Dallas will need to stay attached and chase him around screens to limit his three-point looks. That should open up opportunities for Bane to put the ball on the floor, get into the lane, and create advantages, allowing him to generate assists against a defense that has been slow to rotate this season.

Orlando’s defense has held opponents to under 110 points in five of their last seven and will keep the Mavs offense in check tonight. 

Keyonte George has cashed the Over in back-to-back games with ease. On Monday, George put together a 36-point game against the Nuggets in a tight loss. The Jazz then fell by just four points on Wednesday evening versus the 76ers, but George put his best foot forward, balling out for 30. The Wizards are in the gutter of the East and sit 29th in defensive rating. George will go off again. 

As it relates to three-point shots, the Utah Jazz's feeble 32.9% rate of successful threes when playing on the road measures as the 2nd-worst in the NBA this year.

The Nets are a patheitc 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 in that role dating back to last season, while Miami is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a double-digit favorite. Form couldn’t be more different either, with Miami ranking 4th in net rating over the last 10 games and Brooklyn 29th. After Bam Adebayo called out the team for settling as a play-in squad, the Heat responded with back-to-back double-digit wins, including a 26-point blowout of Brooklyn.

The Heat blew out the Nets in Brooklyn on Tuesday, and there's no reason to expect anything different now that the action turns to Miami tonight. I'm taking the Heat to cover again at home.

Horford’s floor time jumped in the past seven outings, logging more than 26 minutes and hauling in an average of 5.2 rebounds. He’s snagged six or more boards in four of those showings and his rebounding chances spiked to 9.2 in that frame, up from 7.7 before that uptick in action. Projections sit north of six rebounds from Horford.

Gui Santos has tallied 16.2 points per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 9.2 higher than he's tallied in all games this season on the road.. The 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Golden State Warriors.. The Golden State Warriors check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the away team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).. This year when they are on the road, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 3.5 free throws per game (6th-most in the league) against the Houston Rockets, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.

One-sided wins and a few bad shooting nights have impacted his output, which naturally slimmed his scoring props. Fox’s points totals were as high as 18.5 O/U, but we’re getting an opportunity to buy back a discounted total in a marquee matchup. Player projections have Fox logging his standard 30+ minutes and putting up 18 points versus the Pistons, with some sharper books priced Over at -131.

The Pistons have been the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the NBA on the road this year with respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The 9th-slowest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Pistons.

This is a matchup of Top 10 defenses and the Raptors' inconsistent scoring has made Toronto one of the best Under bets this season at 24-37 O/U.

There’s a lot to like about this Immanuel Quickley points prop on Thursday, whether it’s the price, the matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves, or the potential impact of the injury report. The Over 17.5 points is trading at -105, while I price it closer to -170. We all know Rudy Gobert is one of the best defenders in the NBA, but he achieves much of that by playing a deep drop coverage that takes away scoring opportunities for slashers. That isn’t really Quickley’s game. He’s very comfortable dribbling into rhythm three-pointers or pulling up for floaters in the lane before reaching the rim protector. Both of those shots should be available based on the way Gobert defends. Quickley could also get a boost if Brandon Ingram, who is currently questionable with an injury, ends up sitting. My price assumes Ingram plays, but if he’s ruled out, Quickley’s usage would naturally increase.

Chicago’s rotation is limited such that a bench piece is now counted on to initiate the offense. That is going badly, and has directly led to five straight Unders.

The Chicago Bulls will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from facing the slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).. The Bulls rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Some teams are not tanking. They are just bad. To be clear, just being bad is preferable to tanking. Even bad basketball can yield quality results, while clearing out a rotation of all trusted contributors largely produces only deflating losses. The Sacramento Kings are tanking. The New Orleans Pelicans are just bad.

The Pelicans check in as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the league while on the road this year.

LeBron James has upped his efforts in the rebounding department in recent outing, bringing down six or more boards in four of his last five games. James has seen 9.2 rebounding chances over those past five outings and projections range from 5.9 to 7.4 rebounds tonight.

Austin Reaves is trading at -125 for the Over 18.5 points, and that’s a number I’m comfortable attacking as I price it closer to -195. With the Nuggets missing Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon, they simply don’t have enough defensive options to handle the trio of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves. Christian Braun will likely draw the primary assignment on Doncic as Denver’s top perimeter defender, which leaves the Nuggets without many reliable options to slow down Reaves. That creates a clear advantage for him, especially when he’s working off Doncic. When defenses pressure Doncic, Reaves becomes the natural release valve, allowing him to attack weaker defenders in space. Given the limited defensive personnel Denver will have available Thursday, the matchup dynamics set up very well for Reaves to find scoring opportunities.