NBA Picks

The Oklahoma City Thunder are listed as 16-point favorites on Monday against the Philadelphia 76ers, and I’m comfortable laying that number—I make it closer to -21. With Jalen Williams returning, the Thunder are fully healthy. That not only strengthens the starting lineup but also reinforces the lineups responsible for closing the game and preventing any backdoor cover. If there is a concern about a late cover, it’s hard to find a path for Philadelphia. The Thunder bench has a clear edge over the 76ers’ starters, and that gap only widens once rotations kick in. Even in non-starter minutes, Oklahoma City should be able to maintain—or extend—the lead. Offensively, it’s difficult to see how the 76ers generate consistent scoring. It’s one thing to lean on VJ Edgecombe against a team like the Sacramento Kings, but this is a completely different level of defense. 

The Thunder just covered the 15-point spread in back-to-back games against the Nets and Wizards. They’ve also won by an average of 24.6 points against the 76ers across the last three meetings. 

With Cade Cunningham sidelined, the Detroit Pistons need an all-hands effort filling that hole on offense. Ausar saw his touches increasing alongside his shooting activity. He finished just 4 for 10 for eight points over 25 minutes in a one-sided win against Golden State. Thompson has been on a minutes restriction since returning from a sprained ankle earlier this month but with Cunningham out and L.A.’s high-octane offense on deck, Detroit needs his defensive and offensive output. Player forecasts all sit north of 9.5 points from Thompson with a ceiling of 13.3.

The Pistons have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The Detroit Pistons have played at the 10th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 20 games.. The Detroit Pistons are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays today from competing against the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 5 games (the Los Angeles Lakers).

Paolo Banchero is very clearly operating as a point forward in this Magic offense right now, but he still isn’t being priced like it in the assists market, so we’re going back to the over once again. Banchero is averaging just over 12 potential assists per game over his last five, which really stands out when you’re looking at a line of 5.5 with plus money on the over. He’s facing the Pacers, and this sets up as a drive-and-kick clinic, with Banchero consistently finding shooters for wide-open jump shots. Indiana has struggled significantly with allowing paint points and shots at the rim, which should lead to over-helping and late rotations in a panic on Banchero’s drives—opening up plenty of passing lanes and assist opportunities. There’s also strong potential for Banchero to rack up assists in transition, especially when he pushes the ball himself off defensive rebounds in this matchup.

Desmond Bane has cashed the Over in four of his last seven appearances, and he has played better at home, averaging 22.5 PPG compared to 19.5 on the road. Most notably, he’s averaged 24.5 PPG against the Indiana Pacers this season, who are losers of 16 straight contests.

Since scoring an historic 83 points against the Washington Wizards, Bam Adebayo has averaged 25.3 points across his last four outings, going for 22+ three times. He leads the Heat in minutes in that span, clocking in at a whopping 39.1. Bam dropped 31 in his first meeting with the Spurs, and I expect him to stay hot in what should be a high-scoring matchup in South Beach.

The Miami Heat have played great basketball at home this season, winning 23 and covering in 36 games at Kaseya Center. Miami sports the second-highest cover percentage as home underdog, going 7-2 ATS. The San Antonio Spurs have won nine of their last 10 games but covered only five times in that span. The visitors are just 10-10-1 ATS as the road favorite. The Spurs sport a top-10 defense and top-10 offense on the road, and Miami sports the same at home. With a mostly healthy lineup and homecourt advantage, I’ll take the Heat and the points.

Atlanta has a point differential of +12.8 over its last 10 games. The Grizzlies are coming off a 23-point loss to the Charlotte Hornets, and have lost each of their last three road games by 16 points or more. I’m taking the Hawks to cover a big spread at home against a hobbled Memphis team.

The Hawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2026. The gap in form is undeniable, with Atlanta ranking 1st in net rating over the last 10 games compared to Memphis at 25th. The Grizzlies have dropped 10 of their last 11, including five straight double-digit road losses. Atlanta’s last 13 wins have come by an average of 17 points, and with playoff seeding tightening up, don't expect them to take their foot off the gas.

I had absolutely zero hesitation hitting this number—this is my favorite prop on the board for Monday. Reed Sheppard has stepped into the starting lineup in place of Tari Eason and is now running the point, initiating a ton of the offense. In his last game against the Miami Heat, he dished out 14 assists on 21 potential assists, and now he draws a Chicago Bulls defense that lacks both point-of-attack resistance and rim protection—two things that are critical for slowing down a playmaker like him. In two-man actions with Sengun, Bulls guards will be forced to chase over the top because of Sheppard’s lethal jump shot. That opens up everything: his ability to snake the dribble, force Jalen Smith to commit, and create easy looks—whether it’s pocket passes to Sengun or drop-offs to Amen Thompson in the dunker spot. At +128 for over 5.5 assists, this line feels way off—I have it priced closer to -225.

The Rockets are the second-most methodical team in the Association, and they can dictate pace against the Bulls, who play fast and loose on offense. Houston struggles to cover big spreads, though, so I like that narrative to manifest in another Under, despite the lower total.

I'm not sold on the Raptors laying this many points in this spot. While the Jazz are just 3-8 SU in March, they are 6-5 ATS and 21st in net rating. The Raptors are just 17th in net rating over that same period and 1-4 ATS in their last five games when double-digit favorites.

Immanuel Quickley is priced at +115 for over 6.5 assists, and we’re definitely hitting that number—I have it closer to -155. Quickley is on the second night of a back-to-back, but he didn’t log heavy minutes in the first game, as the Raptors were blown out by the Suns. His projected minutes here are also slightly below his season average. He’s facing a Utah Jazz team that has ruled out all of its primary rim protectors due to surgeries, clearly leaning into the tank. This is a young defensive unit that’s slow to rotate and offers virtually no rim protection on the back line. Quickley won’t need to do anything spectacular—this really comes down to his teammates. Jakob Poeltl and the wings should have an easy time converting his potential assists at the rim, with plenty of uncontested layups and dunks available due to blown rotations.

Podziemski has topped 10 points only once in that span after averaging just shy of 20 points in the first seven games of the month. A lineup of stingy opponents has worn down the Warriors guard, with five of the past six contests coming against Top 11 defenses. The Dallas Mavericks, however, are a welcome break. The Mavs are 25th in defensive rating since the All-Star break. Podziemski is getting the minutes and touches to top his scoring total, with most projections flirting with 16 points tonight.

In regard to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 119.4 points per game comes in as the 6th-best in the league over the last 5 games.. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Portland has been dominant early, ranking 2nd in 1st half net rating and point differential over the last 10 games, while Brooklyn sits dead last in both categories. These teams just met a week ago in the exact same back-to-back, while coming off a loss spot that the Blazers are in tonight. Portland led by 24 at the half in that matchup. Add in Portland’s 3rd-ranked defense versus Brooklyn’s last-ranked offense over the 10-game span, and this sets up for another lopsided first half.
 
 
 

This year, opposing starting PGs have shot 29.8% on three-pointers (3rd-worst in the league) against the Portland Trail Blazers, designating this as a hard matchup.. The 4th-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Brooklyn Nets.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Nets rank 5thworst in in the league as the visting team with just 10.0 offensive boards per game this year.

The Clippers boast the ninth-best offensive efficiency in the NBA, which will help against a Giannis-less Bucks team that can't stop anyone. Milwaukee has struggled recently, particularly against good teams. It had lost six of seven before winning Saturday.

This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PGs have shot 42.1% on shot attempts from the field (8th-lowest in the NBA) against the Clippers, designating this as a difficult matchup.. The 6th-slowest pace team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Bucks.. Offensive rebounds save possession and generate additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks rank 1stworst in in the league with only 8.7 offensive boards per game this year.. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.9 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Clippers, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.