NBA Picks

Boston tends to respond emphatically after losses, and the trends back it up. They went an NBA-best 18-8 ATS in games after a loss during the regular season, most recently going 8-1 ATS in that spot. During their 2024 Finals run, they answered each loss with dominant wins of 20, 13, and 18 points. Philadelphia may be coming off a win, but they’ve struggled as underdogs overall, going 3-10-1 ATS since March 1. I expect the Celtics to pull away and win comfortably tonight. 

Jalen Suggs is the Magic’s most consistent 3-point threat and has gone 3 for 10 from distance in each of the first two playoff contests. Nineteen of his total 20 shots from downtown have been either “open” or “wide open” with Suggs making good on just five of those attempts. Suggs’ shooting sees a surge at home, with his 3-point success jumping from less than 30% on the road to 37.4% in Orlando.

Game 3 projections aren’t bullish on Suggs’ shooting, pegging him for two 3-point makes. But with Detroit keeping its heels below the arc and Suggs shooting almost double his usual 3PAs, the opportunity is there to hit at least three treys – especially when you consider his shooting splits at home and a game script that has Orlando playing from behind.

Following the Suns' Game 2 loss, Devin Booker ripped the officiating crew and called out referee James Williams by name, calling him “terrible” and questioning his integrity. Dillon Brooks called Shai Gilgeous-Alexander “frail” and noted the lack of physicality in the current NBA. Both Booker and Brooks will surely be playing with chips on their shoulders, feeling slighted by the referees playing favorites and making unfair calls in favor of their opponents.

Booker’s comments triggered an investigation from the Association that found nothing to substantiate his claims, but the public call-out could lead to an overcorrection, and the refs may swallow their whistles.

The Suns can’t afford to lose this game and fall into an 0-3 hole, so I expect them to scrap and claw with a Thunder team missing SGA’s No. 2, Jalen Williams. I’ll take Phoenix to cover, and I like their chances of winning this one outright.

When the playoffs roll around, Jalen Brunson elevates his scoring to a new level. Since 2023-24, Brunson is one of just four players to average 30+ points per game, and he’s the only one to play in more than six games. With an average of 30.4 points across his last 34 playoff games, Brunson has a proven track record in critical games. 

The T-Wolves will need their role players to stay hot this weekend to grab a 3-1 lead, and that means a neon green light for DiVincenzo, who’s nailed this points prop Over in all three games so far in the series.

That includes 11-for-22 shooting from downtown, and the Nuggets have struggled to contain his speed and quick release coming off screens and DHOs. This O/U line is right around his regular-season mark of 12.2 PPG, but Minnesota is asking even more of DiVincenzo without Ant Man at full health.