NBA Picks

The Timberwolves need to win to keep pace with the Rockets for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference, while the Pistons can cruise into the postseason as the top seed out East and hope Cade Cunningham will return before life on the court becomes dire. Minnesota has a receipt to give Detroit, and it is in a moment that the Timberwolves already had plenty reason to show up.

This year, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled 3.0 3-point attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the league) vs. the Detroit Pistons, resulting in a tough matchup.. The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 8th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Detroit Pistons).

Phoenix is banged up and thin up front, and that’s a bad combo against a Charlotte team that’s second in the league in defensive rebounding. No second-chance points means no safety net.

On top of that, the Suns are coming off a physical road loss in Orlando. This shortened Phoenix roster looked fatigued against the Magic, and that’s not a good look against these Hornets. 

Take the Hornets to cover tonight. 

 

The 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Suns.. The Suns are expected to see a decline in plays today from being pitted against the slowest pace home team in the league over the last 5 games (the Hornets).. As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been poor at getting to the charity stripe while playing away from home: 2nd-worst in the league this year, drawing a measly 19.4 free throws per game.. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Charlotte Hornets, struggling to draw fouls.

LeBron’s willingness to be a No.3 option has unlocked the Lakers, and he’s still putting up strong numbers in that role, including 6.9 RPG and 7.0 APG in March. I’m targeting those statistical categories tonight against the Thunder, and James has cashed this Over in five of his last seven contests.

He can still control possessions with his passing, and he’s dished 8+ dimes in four of his past five outings. Coming off 34.4 MPG in March, LeBron has his bounce back, and he finished with 10 assists and six rebounds against OKC in February.

For all its success, Los Angeles continues to get bullied on the blocks. The Lakers allow more than 53 points in the paint per game during this hot streak and a smaller rotation and ineffective interior defenders allow those foes to fire at a 69.5% clip within five feet of the rim. Hartenstein has had success versus the Lakers this season, putting up 10 and 11 points on a collective 9-for-15 shooting while logging 20 and 22 minutes in those two meetings. His projections for Thursday range between 8.8 and 9.0 points through 23 minutes of work.

Despite some inconsistent performances lately, Mitchell has topped this number eight times in 12 games this month and now gets a great matchup against a banged-up Warriors team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating and is giving up the seventh most points to opposing guards since the All-Star break.

With Steph Curry still out, Brandon Podziemski is a threat to hit all his Overs tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I’m pairing his scoring and rebounding for this prop pick. Podziemski has breezed past this combo number in four of his last five outings – in fact, he’s nailed it on points alone in three of those games.

Podziemski continues to be a sneaky-good rebounder too, and he’s hauled in 6+ rebounds in six of his past eight games. The Warriors are probably locked into the No.10 seed at this stage, but look for Podz to make the most of the extra reps.

Portland has quietly emerged as the league’s top defensive unit in recent weeks, allowing just 104.5 points per game over its last 10 while ranking first in defensive rating. The Blazers have held 11 of their last 14 opponents under 112.5 points. Meanwhile, the foot has come off the gas for the Pelicans as they've lost five straight and have nothing to play for. With a layoff until Monday after this game and a chance to climb the standings, Portland should bring a strong defensive effort here.

The Trail Blazers have it going right now. They went into L.A. and dumped the Clippers, 114-104, making it seven wins in their last nine outings. The Blazers are doing it with defense. Over this stretch, they own the NBA’s best scoring defense at 104 points per game, allowing teams to shoot just 44% from the field and 32.3% from 3-point range. New Orleans fits into what Portland is doing, as they have dropped five straight and are scoring just 107.6 points per game during this slide.

Over his last 16 games, the French phenom has averaged 27.7 points, 12.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists, good for 43.5 PRA. He’s gone for 40+ nine times in that span.

After serving up consecutive 41-point clinics, Victor Wembanyama is coming for the rest of the NBA, and he might just be hitting the next level in time for the playoffs. Wemby averaged 26.8 PPG in March, and he’s nailed this Over in nine of his last 14 outings.

I like tonight’s matchup against a Los Angeles Clippers squad that’s thin in the frontcourt. We’ll likely see L.A. put wings on Wemby here, and he should feast in the paint and on the offensive glass. He may not add to his 40-point run, but I’ll grab the Over on this reasonable O/U line.