NBA Picks

The Clippers have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The LA Clippers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jarrett Allen has totaled 20.1 points per game over the last 15 games, 4.9 more than he's totaled overall this season.. The Cavaliers have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.. The Heat have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should increase plays for the Cavaliers.

The most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA this year has been the Heat.. The Miami Heat rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Boston just came off a statement win over OKC so this screams letdown spot. With Jaylen Brown a game-time decision, there’s added uncertainty. Atlanta thrives in chaos, and if they push pace, this turns into their kind of game. Grab Hawks +4.5 and trust the tempo to keep it tight.

The Hawks are expected to experience a decrease in plays today from squaring off against the least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA this year (the Boston Celtics).. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Atlanta Hawks rank 8thworst in in the NBA on the road with only 10.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.. This year, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.3 free throws per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Celtics, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Grizzlies.. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The Memphis Grizzlies will likely see a spike in opportunities today from squaring off against the 7th-speediest pace away offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Rockets).

OKC is a Top 5 scoring team in the NBA, that’s also allowed just 106.3 points per game in their last 13.

The Thunder have played at the 8th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 15 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Chicago Bulls.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Bulls grade out 5thworst in in the league away from home with a mere 10.1 offensive rebounds per game this year.

When it comes to threes, the New Orleans Pelicans's lackluster 11.3 converted threes per game comes in as the 5th-lowest in the NBA this year.. The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The Pelicans will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Raptors).

Jakob Poeltl has put up 14.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.8 higher than he's put up over the course of the season.. The Toronto Raptors have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Denver Nuggets are trading as 18-point favorites, but I make the number closer to -22 against the Jazz on Friday. The matchup itself is extremely lopsided, starting with Nikola Jokic going up against Kyle Filipowski in the paint. That’s one of the biggest mismatches you’ll see, and it’s a spot where Denver should be able to generate offense at will. Beyond the starters, Denver’s health is a major factor. When you’re laying a number this large, bench production becomes critical, and the Nuggets are in a great position there. With a fully healthy rotation, players like Peyton Watson, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr. should be able to come in and maintain—or even extend—the lead. On the other side, Utah is on the front end of a back-to-back, which only adds to the risk of this game getting out of hand early. When you combine the matchup, depth, and scheduling spot, this spread still feels too low.

In terms of shooting, the Denver Nuggets's stellar 121.2 points per game places best in the NBA this year.. The 7th-quickest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Nuggets.. The Utah Jazz have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which ought to raise opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.

As it relates to scoring, the Trail Blazers's feeble 45.4% field goal percentage measures as the 2nd-weakest in the league this year.

The matchup vs. the Portland Trail Blazers is a challenging one for 3-pointers; opposing starting PGs have shot for the 3rd-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (29.8%).. The Mavericks check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over his last 12 games, Gui Santos has averaged 16.5 points, going for 16+ seven times and exactly 15 points once more. Santos has scored at least 16 in two straight games, including his career-high 31-point eruption against the Nets on Wednesday.

Santos has averaged 14.5 points across 25 starts compared to just 4.7 points off the bench. He’s scored 16+ in 11 of 25 games as a starter, including six of 10 starts at home, where he’s averaged 16 points. He finished with 18 points against the Washington Wizards in his first matchup.

The Wizards own the NBA’s worst defensive rating at 120.7, and the team has surrendered the second-most points to opponents (124.1). The Wizards will offer no resistance, and I expect Santos to build on his career-best performance with at least 16 points. He’ll need to shoulder some additional scoring responsibilities for Golden State’s depleted roster.

The Golden State Warriors have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Wizards.. The Wizards check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

With respect to 3-point attempts, the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year has been the Brooklyn Nets.. The matchup against Los Angeles may be a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 3.2 foul shots per game over the last 17 games when the Los Angeles Lakers have the home court advantage (10th-most in the NBA).

In terms of 3-point shots, the Lakers's impressive 38.0% rate of made threes at home comes in as the 3rd-most in the NBA over the last 25 games.