Denver
4th West57-39
Oklahoma City
1st West83-21
Denver @ Oklahoma City picks
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DEN vs OKC Picks
NBA Picks
Points Scored

Aaron Gordon o5.5 Points Scored (-110)
Projection 12.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Aaron Gordon has sunk a terrific 41.5% of his three-point attempts this year, quite a bit more than his 26.9 mark last year.. Aaron Gordon has averaged 37.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 7.3 more than he's averaged in all games this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Denver Nuggets.. The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder may be a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a whopping 4.5 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (10th-most in the league).
Points Scored

Michael Porter Jr. o10.5 Points Scored (-110)
Projection 15 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Michael Porter Jr. has made 6.4 baskets per game this year, placing him in the 86th percentile among all players in the league.. Out of all players in the league, Michael Porter Jr. measures in the 88th percentile for three-point attempts without the home court advantage, registering 5.9 per game this year.. Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. ranks in the 91st percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 33.5 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Denver Nuggets.. The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Points Scored

Nikola Jokic u30.5 Points Scored (-115)
Projection 25.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Nikola Jokic has accumulated 4.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.8 higher than he's accumulated overall this year on the road.. In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.. The Nuggets have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.. Nikola Jokic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling generally worsens player performance in all facets of the game.
Points Scored

Russell Westbrook u10.5 Points Scored (+100)
Projection 8.5 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Russell Westbrook has sunk 37.1% of his field goals over the last 10 games on the road, 6.8% less than he's made over the course of the year while playing away from home.. Russell Westbrook has shot and missed 3.6 3-point attempts per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's missed from three over the course of the year.. Russell Westbrook has tallied 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's tallied overall this year.. In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.. The Nuggets have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
Total Rebounds

Aaron Gordon o2.5 Total Rebounds (-110)
Projection 5.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Aaron Gordon has compiled 3.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games, 1.6 higher than he's compiled in all games this year.. Aaron Gordon has averaged 37.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 7.3 more than he's averaged in all games this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Denver Nuggets.. The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Total Rebounds

Chet Holmgren u9.5 Total Rebounds (-118)
Projection 7.9 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Chet Holmgren has been called for 2.3 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, placing him in the 78th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.. The Thunder will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from squaring off against the 10th-least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Nuggets).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 10thworst in in the NBA while on their home court with just 10.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.
3-Pointers Made

Aaron Gordon o0.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)
Projection 1.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Aaron Gordon has sunk a terrific 41.5% of his three-point attempts this year, quite a bit more than his 26.9 mark last year.. Aaron Gordon has averaged 37.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 7.3 more than he's averaged in all games this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Denver Nuggets.. The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
3-Pointers Made

Christian Braun u1.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)
Projection 1.3 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Christian Braun has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.9 higher than he's committed over the course of the year.. In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.. The Nuggets have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.. Christian Braun will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage usually decreases player performance in all facets of the game.
Total Assists

Aaron Gordon o1.5 Total Assists (+125)
Projection 2.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Aaron Gordon has compiled 4.4 assists per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's compiled over the course of the year.. Aaron Gordon has averaged 37.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 7.3 more than he's averaged in all games this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Denver Nuggets.. The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
DEN vs OKC Consensus Picks
View all Consensus Picks
66% picking Denver
Total Picks DEN 616, OKC 312
Spread
DEN
OKC
70% picking Denver vs Oklahoma City to go Over
Total PicksDEN 533, OKC 228
Total
Over
Under