Houston @ Golden State picks

Buddy Hield scored 17 and 15 points in Games 3 and 4 for the Golden State Warriors, respectively. In 24 starts this season, he averaged 11.9 points and finished with at least 10 in 14 of them. Hield reached that scoring milestone in 45 of 88 games overall. He excelled when given meaningful minutes, dropping 10 or more points in 11 of 12 games played with at least 30 minutes. The sharpshooter reached that mark in 25 of 30 games played with at least 25 minutes. I’m counting on him seeing at least 25 minutes again tonight, and I love the longer -105 odds on this low scoring line.

Fred VanVleet couldn’t have opened the playoffs much worse, as he totaled just 17 points on 6-of-27 shooting through Games 1 and 2. That included a 3-of-20 mark from downtown. FVV put those two games in the rearview quickly, and he’s been superb as a scorer across his last three. In Games 3 through 5, VanVleet has averaged 22.7 points and five triples on 52.5% shooting from the field and 55.6% shooting from beyond the arc. VanVleet has scored at least 16 points in 14 of his last 20 playoff games while averaging 17.8 points. He’ll need to be at his best tonight if the Houston Rockets hope to force a Game 7 back home.

Dillon Brooks isn’t just on the court to throw hands with Draymond Green. He’s actually been quite effective as a scorer against the Golden State Warriors this season, and his scoring line is set advantageously low. Brooks scored at least 12 points in 49 of 80 games this season, including five of 10 against Golden State. In those 10 games against the Dubs, Brooks averaged 13.7 points, but he’s been even better this postseason. He averaged 15.8 points on 58.5% shooting (50% from deep) at Chase Center this season compared to 12.3 points on 43.9% shooting (34.6% from deep) in home games against the Warriors. I’ll happily take the Over on this mispriced scoring line.