Indiana @ Oklahoma City picks

Obi Toppin has cleared this prop twice in the NBA Finals, netting a 1.3-unit profit for anyone betting it every game. More importantly, Toppin has taken at least five 3-pointers in three of the four games. As long as he is shooting that often, getting this prop at plus-money is a summer delight.

Lu Dort has been shooting well in the NBA Finals, let's not deny that. He has hit 11-of-18 threes, 61.1%, but taking only nine in the last three games is a worry for the OKC offense. With Dort reluctant to shoot, it becomes that much more unlikely he hits multiple 3-pointers in Game 5.

Oklahoma City's shooting abandoned it in Game 4, going 3-of-16 from deep. The greater concern was the 16, not the 3. And the Thunder have been trending down in their 3-point rate, taking only 22 in Game 3 after heaving 36 in Game 2. As long as Indiana is so cutting down on OKC's perimeter shooting opportunities, doubt should be poured into Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assists props.

This is not a glamorous pick, but it has cashed in every game of these NBA Finals, and there is no reason to think Tyrese Haliburton is going to start handling the ball less now. The Pacers have effectively accepted that he is going to turn over the ball a few times per game against the Thunder.

Luguentz Dort has successfully made 53.9% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 13.0% more than he's put through the net in all games this year.. Luguentz Dort has converted 61.8% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 24.6% higher than he's converted from three over the course of the year.. Luguentz Dort has averaged 33.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.6 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.. As it relates to shooting, the Oklahoma City Thunder's remarkable 124.6 points per game at home measures as the highest in the NBA over the last 25 games.. This year, opposing starting SGs have registered 19.0 points per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Pacers, identifying this as a favorable matchup for offensive effectiveness.

Obi Toppin has sunk 2.0 threes per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this year.. Obi Toppin has played 25.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 higher than he's played over the course of the year.. In terms of offense, the Pacers's excellent 118.2 points per game when playing away from home rates 3rd-strongest in the league over the last 25 games.. The 7th-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Pacers.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to get a boost in plays in this contest from competing against the 5th-quickest pace home team in the league this year (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

As it relates to shooting, the Oklahoma City Thunder's remarkable 124.6 points per game at home measures as the highest in the NBA over the last 25 games.. The matchup vs. Myles Turner is a favorable one for shots from the field; when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a monstrous 5.2 baskets per game (100th percentile).. The 5th-fastest pace home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Pacers have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Thunder.. Isaiah Hartenstein ought to see an increase in productivity across the board as a result of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 3.4 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.1 higher than he's converted from downtown overall this year away from home.. In terms of offense, the Pacers's excellent 118.2 points per game when playing away from home rates 3rd-strongest in the league over the last 25 games.. The 7th-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Pacers.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to get a boost in plays in this contest from competing against the 5th-quickest pace home team in the league this year (the Oklahoma City Thunder).. Aaron Nesmith has sunk a whopping 90.0% of his free throw attempts this season, a sizeable increase from his 81.5 mark last season.

Myles Turner has compiled 1.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 0.7 higher than he's compiled in all games this year on the road.. Out of all players in the NBA, Myles Turner slots into the 80th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 29.4 minutes per game on the road this year.. The 7th-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Pacers.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to get a boost in plays in this contest from competing against the 5th-quickest pace home team in the league this year (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

In regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 8th-most aggressive team in the NBA with the home court advantage this year has been the Thunder.. The 5th-fastest pace home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Pacers have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Thunder.. Chet Holmgren is expected to see an increase in productivity in all facets of the game considering holding the home court advantage in this game.

The 5th-fastest pace home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Pacers have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Thunder.. Chet Holmgren is expected to see an increase in productivity in all facets of the game considering holding the home court advantage in this game.

Obi Toppin has played 25.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 higher than he's played over the course of the year.. The 7th-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Pacers.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to get a boost in plays in this contest from competing against the 5th-quickest pace home team in the league this year (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has totaled 7.2 assists per game over the last 5 games while at home, 0.8 more than he's totaled overall this season at home.. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on the court for 34.2 minutes per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.. The 5th-fastest pace home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Pacers have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Thunder.. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands to see a spike in efficiency in all stat categories on account of owning the home court advantage in this contest.

Luguentz Dort has averaged 33.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.6 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.. The 5th-fastest pace home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Pacers have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Thunder.. Luguentz Dort will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court usually improves player production for all stats.