Indiana @ Oklahoma City picks

Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 1.6 steals per game in the playoffs but really made a difference on defense in the Western Conference finals. He recorded two or more steals in three of the five games and has posted at least two swipes in 10 of his 16 playoff contests heading into the Finals. The Pacers’ offensive trademark is a frenetic passing scheme, averaging 314.3 passes per game in the postseason. The Thunder are a team that loves to jump the passing lanes – anchored in SGA’s tremendous off-the-ball defending – and is generating 18.0 turnovers and 10.8 steals per playoff game. The spike in opponent passing in this series gives natural cause to think the Thunder’s forced turnovers and steals should also increase. Gilgeous-Alexander’s player projections sit at 1.7 steals for Game 1 and my number is closer to 2.0.

Pascal Siakam has shown his title experience this postseason, scoring at least 20 points in eight of 16 games, including three of six in the Eastern Conference Finals to win ECF MVP. For all of OKC's excellent defenders, Siakam may still present a matchup problem. He is not as loose with his dribble as most players standing 6-foot-8, and if he can get into the midrange on drives, he will be comfortable hitting runners or pull-ups. Indiana’s path to winning the NBA Finals will hinge on having two offensive initiators, Siakam joining Tyrese Haliburton. Logic says that has been emphasized this week in prep, and getting Siakam going early will be a Pacers focus.

The Pacers ranked No. 3 in opponent 3-point attempt rate after the All-Star Break, opponents taking just 39.0% of their shots from deep. And they made only 34.5% of those, the fourth-lowest percentage in the NBA. Those trends have effectively continued in the postseason. Indiana will stick to its plan to start this series. Perhaps it backfires and Rick Carlisle needs to adjust, but initially, the Pacers will not give up open looks from deep. SGA will not much mind that, given he is an atrocious 3-point shooter, hitting just 30.0% this postseason. He will appreciate the closeouts, using them to get an edge on defenders that should already be scrambling to prevent his drives.

OKC bases its defense on allowing looks from the corners. As much as corner 3s have come to define much of the modern NBA, the Thunder bet on themselves closing out strongly enough to fluster those open shooters. And this has obviously worked, producing the best defense in the NBA. But at 6-foot-9, Obi Toppin will not be easily flustered by those closeouts. There is a reason he hit 45% of his corner 3s this season — 54-of-120 — while taking them on a full 20% of his field goal attempts. Only Ben Sheppard shot in the corner more often among Indiana’s rotation, but his postseason action has dwindled, particularly compared to Tobbin’s.

Williams averaged 22 points and almost seven rebounds versus Minnesota in the WCF and his Game 1 Finals forecast calls for another busy box score. Projections have Williams lined up for 23 points and seven boards on Thursday. He’s proven he’s capable of shouldering the scoring load for OKC if the Pacers pinch on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his advanced metrics show Williams in position for 10.4 rebounding chances in the postseason. His solo prop totals sit at 22.5 points O/U and a juiced Over 5.5 rebounds and if you combine the 20-plus points and five-plus rebounds at some books, you get a SGP paying only -120. But if you make this same Williams accumulator at bet365, you can get +105 for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Dort draws the key assignment of slowing down Tyrese Haliburton in the NBA Finals. The burly shooting guard will try to get the ball out of Haliburton’s hands and with the Pacers point guard a primary passer, it should put Dort in good position to crash the boards. His advanced stats show 7.6 rebounding chances in the playoffs, with that metric jumping to 8.2 in the conference finals. He averaged 3.6 boards against Minnesota while checking scorer Anthony Edwards and snatched four or more rebounds in three of the four final games of the WCF. Player models for Game 1 of the NBA Finals have Dort pegged between 4.1 and 5.2 rebounds versus Indiana. During the two regular season run-ins with the Pacers, Dort recorded five and seven boards in OKC victories.