New York @ Indiana picks
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
NY vs IND Picks
NBA Picks
Points Scored

Jalen Brunson u29.5 Points Scored (+105)
Projection 26.2 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Jalen Brunson has been called for 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 more than he's been called for in all games this season.. The Knicks have been the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of three-point attempts.. The matchup against the Indiana Pacers is a tough one for 3-point attempts; the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged the least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.6).. The Knicks have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA on the road this year.. Jalen Brunson will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduce stat production across the board.
Points Scored

Aaron Nesmith o11.5 Points Scored (-110)
Projection 14.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Aaron Nesmith has made 2.9 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's made from downtown over the course of the season.. Aaron Nesmith has played 31.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.4 higher than he's played in all games this season.. The Indiana Pacers rank as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.. The matchup against New York is a positive one for threes; when the Knicks are away from home, the other team's starting SFs have compiled the highest 3-point rate in the league this year (48.0%).. The 9th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA this year has been the Indiana Pacers.
Points Scored

Josh Hart o8.5 Points Scored (-130)
Projection 10.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Josh Hart has converted an impressive 51.8% of his shots from the field this season, quite a bit higher than his 41.6 rate last season.. Among all players in the league, Josh Hart registers in the 100th percentile for playing time, registering a whopping 37.5 minutes per game this year.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league this year, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Knicks.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks rank 4th-best in in the league with 12.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.. Josh Hart has made 4.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.2 more than he's sunk over the course of the season while on the road.
Points Scored

Mitchell Robinson o5.5 Points Scored (-118)
Projection 7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Mitchell Robinson has successfully made an impressive 62.1% of his field goals this year, a significant increase from his 55.2 mark last year.. The number of shots drained against Myles Turner has been very high (5.4 per game) when matched up against fellow starting Cs this year (100th percentile).. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league this year, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Knicks.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks rank 4th-best in in the league with 12.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.. Mitchell Robinson has successfully made a terrific 48.8% of his free throws this year, a big improvement over his 39.1 rate last year.
Points Scored

T.J. McConnell u8.5 Points Scored (-110)
Projection 7.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
T.J. McConnell has attempted 0.6 three-point shots per game this year, putting him in the 15th percentile out of all players in the NBA.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-most lethargic pace visiting offense in the league this year (the Knicks).. The Indiana Pacers have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
3-Pointers Made

Mikal Bridges o1.5 3-Pointers Made (-104)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Mikal Bridges has sunk 37.8% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games on the road, 9.7% higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season when playing away from home.. Among all players in the league, Mikal Bridges registers in the 98th percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 37.1 minutes per game when playing away from home this year.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league this year, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Knicks.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks rank 4th-best in in the league with 12.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
Total Assists

Karl-Anthony Towns o1.5 Total Assists (-115)
Projection 2.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Karl-Anthony Towns has been on the court for 35.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 95th percentile.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league this year, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Knicks.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks rank 4th-best in in the league with 12.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
NY vs IND Consensus Picks
View all Consensus Picks60% picking New York vs Indiana to go Over
Total PicksNY 388, IND 256
Total
Over
Under