NBA Picks

File this under a name you never expected to see in an NBA write-up again—and you definitely didn't expect it to be the reason we're placing a trade. I think Ben Simmons is the key to this matchup. When he gets minutes against the Los Angeles Lakers' backups in a preseason game, he should be able to create efficient offense for his teammates and the Sacramento Kings' bench players. Meanwhile, the Lakers could lack a primary creator on offense and struggle to generate much when their starters leave the floor.

I'm surprised to see the Charlotte Hornets trading as such heavy favorites in a preseason matchup with Kon Knueppel out due to injury and Coby White also sidelined. Charlotte is missing two of its primary offensive weapons while still working new additions like Grayson Allen and Naz Reid into the rotation. That makes the Hornets' current price difficult to justify for me. At 40%, I'll take the Nets, as I have Brooklyn closer to a 44% win probability in this matchup.

The Thunder have nearly every key player listed as questionable for this matchup, yet they're still trading as 59% favorites. That makes the Pelicans at 42% particularly appealing, as I expect their probability to rise once the injury reports are finalized. If Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both sit, who is going to protect the rim against Zion Williamson? That potential frontcourt disadvantage is too significant to ignore, especially at this price. I'm hitting the button on the Pelicans at 42%.

I had my eye on this matchup after watching the teams meet in the first preseason game, and I’m going right back to Utah at 49%. The Jazz are a slight underdog, but I think their price should be higher. Utah’s size was a major factor in the first meeting, with Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, and Jusuf Nurkic forming a massive frontcourt and Ace Bailey coming off the bench. Nikola Jokic already has limited interest in preseason basketball, and that matchup appeared to make matters worse, as he managed just three points in the first meeting. I’m more than comfortable hitting the button on the Jazz at 49%.

This is the second night of a back-to-back for the Lakers, and it's only the preseason. It's difficult enough to get a quality effort out of an NBA team on the second night of a back-to-back during the regular season, let alone in the preseason. With the Lakers traveling after playing in Sacramento on Monday, I don't expect many, if any, key players to suit up. Once the injury reports are released, I expect the Golden State Warriors 61% win probability to be long gone, with that number likely to trade significantly higher.

I’ll gladly take the Boston Celtics as an underdog against the Detroit Pistons on Opening Night. The Jaylen Brown-for-Paul George trade raised plenty of eyebrows, but this matchup shows why Boston made the move. George gives the Celtics another versatile perimeter defender who can switch onto Cade Cunningham and hold his own, even if Detroit uses actions to get Derrick White off Cunningham. That versatility is valuable against a Pistons team built around Cunningham creating advantages. There’s also a major question mark surrounding Jalen Duren. Will he even be on the floor for this matchup, or will he still be on the roster by Opening Night? I also think George’s fit in Boston will play out better than people anticipate. His three-point-heavy shot diet fits the Celtics’ offense, while his ability to make quick decisions and connect the offense as a passer adds another dimension. Give me the points with Boston.

The Philadelphia 76ers are loaded and rightfully among the favorites to win it all, but I’m not backing them on Opening Night. There are too many high-usage players who still need to find their rhythm together, while the New York Knicks have the advantage of continuity and familiarity — the same foundation that helped them win the title. Philadelphia still has to figure out its rotations, offensive actions and how to divide minutes and usage to maximize its roster construction. The Knicks already have those answers. If this matchup were later in the season, I’d view the spread differently, but on Opening Night, give me New York.

The San Antonio Spurs are a brutal matchup for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and nothing that happened this offseason has changed my mind. If anything, San Antonio widened the gap by adding Tobias Harris for additional depth, while Oklahoma City had to sacrifice key role players like Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort, and Aaron Wiggins to create cap space. The Thunder thrive on using their multiple elite perimeter defenders to disrupt actions, force live-ball turnovers, and turn those takeaways into easy offense. San Antonio's advantage is that it doesn't have a primary point guard who has to initiate every possession. The Spurs can have De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, or Dylan Harper bring the ball up and attack whichever matchup is most favorable, allowing them to avoid pressure defenders like Alex Caruso. Give me the Spurs on Opening Night to continue their dominance over the Thunder.