NBA Picks

James Harden and Donovan Mitchell could both be sidelined for Cleveland on Friday, leaving the Eastern Conference's top seed ready to strike at home. I'm all over the Pistons covering in a blowout.

In contrast to last season's 7.0 clip, Sam Merrill's points per game have increased this season to 13.0.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Cleveland Cavaliers grade out 8th-best in the NBA when playing on the road with 12.3 offensive boards per game this year.. Over the last 10 games, opposing starting SGs have attempted 4.8 free throws per game (2nd-most in the league) against the Detroit Pistons, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

The Brooklyn Nets are at the bottom of the Atlantic Division and among the worst rebounding teams, ranked 26th in rebound rate. Pritchard has grabbed four or more boards in two of the past three matchups with Brooklyn and is projected for as many as 4.9 rebounds tonight.

Big number, but I love this spot for Boston. It’s their first home game since Feb. 11, they’re off tomorrow, and they’re coming off an ugly loss. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in the second leg of back-to-backs and ranks dead last in offensive rating this month, while Boston is first in defensive rating. The Celtics have covered in six straight as double-digit favorites. The Nets are on an 0-7 ATS slide as a double-digit dog and their losses on the road have come by a league-worst average of 19.3 PPG.

Before being limited to five FGAs vs. Cleveland, KAT averaged more than 15 shots in the first three outings back from the break. The New York Knicks' big man has actually been hot all of February, upping his average points to 19.6 and shooting 55.4% from the field.

He won’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo in pursuit against the Milwaukee Bucks after struggling in the first two matchups with Milwaukee (4 for 20 with Giannis). His projections sit between 19.2 and 20.2 points tonight, giving good value to Over 18.5.

In terms of 3-point shots, the Bucks's exceptional 40.8% rate of made threes playing at home measures as the highest in the league this year.. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 44.7% on threes (best in the league) against the Knicks, labeling this as a favorable matchup.

The Grizzlies have been without leading scorer Ja Morant (19.5 ppg) since mid-January, and standout rookie Cedric Coward (13.3 ppg) is also sidelined. That means plenty of shots for former Top-10 pick Taylor Hendricks, who was acquired in the Jaren Jackson trade. W

With Santi Aldama and Zach Edey injured, Hendricks has blossomed in an increased role in the frontcourt, dropping 10+ points in four of his last six games. The Mavericks' defense has collapsed with the departure of Anthony Davis and injuries to Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington. Dallas ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating while playing at the sixth-fastest pace over the last month.

The matchup against Memphis is a challenging one for shots from the field; when the Memphis Grizzlies are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 2nd-least shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (9.7).. The Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).. Over the last 12 games, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (3rd-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Grizzlies, making it tough to draw fouls.

Returning Gilgeous-Alexander is huge for OKC but keeping him healthy should be the priority. Not only does he need to meet the bar for MVP consideration, but the Thunder own a mere 1.5-game buffer atop the conference. Projections are tempered for SGA with a full workload promising 30+ points but most models range from 18.4 to 23.7 points with his minutes capped. I believe OKC plays it safe.

The matchup against Denver is a difficult one for three-point attempts; when the Nuggets are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied the least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.5).. The Thunder have played at the 8th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

With Steph Curry ruled out, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis listed as game-time decisions, and Jimmy Butler done for the season, expect the Lakers to get the best of the Warriors for the second time this month.