Indiana @ Miami Picks & Props

In comparison to last season's 32.8% clip, Aaron Nesmith's three-point effectiveness has spiked this season to 44.0%. As it relates to shooting, the Pacers's exceptional 127.9 points per game on their home court places best in the league this year. The fastest tempo home offense in the NBA this year has been the Pacers. The Heat have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home city, which ought to increase plays for the Pacers. This year when they are away from home, the other team has secured 9.6 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat (losing possessions that could otherwise result in bonus opportunities for offense).

Orlando Robinson has made 0.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc on his home court since the start of last season, putting him in the 4th percentile among all players in the NBA. Orlando Robinson has attempted 0.2 3-pointers per game while at home since the start of last season, ranking in the 10th percentile among all players in the league. The Heat check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). On the road, the Pacers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (13.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Since the start of last season when they are away from home, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 16.4 points per game (10th-fewest in the league) vs. the Heat, marking this as a difficult matchup for offensive performance. The Pacers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Since the start of last season, opposing starting PGs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (14th-fewest in the league) against the Miami Heat, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line. Tyrese Haliburton should see a decline in efficiency for all stats as a result of playing away from hom in this contest.

Compared to last season's 41.8% mark, Haywood Highsmith's shooting prowess has spiked this season to 51.7%. Haywood Highsmith has tallied a terrific 23.1 minutes per game this season, significantly higher than his 15.2 minutes per game last season. The Heat have been the 7th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing away from home. The Miami Heat have played at the 9th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this game from competing against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Pacers).

The Heat check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). On the road, the Pacers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (13.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists). This matchup is a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing teams have attempted a colossal 28.8 free throws per game this year (most in the NBA).

Kyle Lowry has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game at home this year, putting him in the 88th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling. The Heat check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). On the road, the Pacers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (13.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jimmy Butler has failed to convert 2.6 attempts from beyond the arc per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.9 more than he's missed from beyond the arc overall this season playing at home. The matchup against the Pacers is a difficult one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled the 15th-least three attempts per game in the league this year (2.5). The Heat check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). On the road, the Pacers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (13.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

This year when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied 4.9 three attempts per game (13th-fewest in the league) against the Indiana Pacers, identifying this as a difficult matchup. The Heat check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). On the road, the Pacers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (13.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Pacers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Obi Toppin has converted a mere 60.0% of his foul shot attempts this year, significantly lower than his 78.4 rate last year. The matchup against Miami is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Miami Heat are on their home court (8th-least in the league). Obi Toppin will not hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage tends to worsen player production across the board.

Andrew Nembhard has converted a mere 2.9% of his treys this year, quite a bit lower than his 33.3 rate last year. Since the start of last season when they are away from home, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 16.4 points per game (10th-fewest in the league) vs. the Heat, marking this as a difficult matchup for offensive performance. The Pacers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Relative to last season's 79.5% mark, Andrew Nembhard's foul-shot effectiveness has diminished this season to 50.0%. Since the start of last season, opposing starting PGs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (14th-fewest in the league) against the Miami Heat, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

In contrast to last season's 4.9 rate, Myles Turner's missed shots have jumped this season to 7.2 per game. In contrast to last year's 33.6% mark, Myles Turner's three-point performance has diminished this year to 14.9%. Among all players in the league, Myles Turner measures in the 98th percentile for personal fouls, posting a colossal 3.5 fouls per game this year. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting Cs have scored 12.1 points per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, making this a difficult matchup for offensive performance. The Pacers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Buddy Hield has committed 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 0.9 higher than he's committed in all games this year on the road. This matchup is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Miami Heat are the visiting team, opposing teams have compiled the 8th-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA against them this year (37.4%). The Pacers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Buddy Hield will likely suffer a reduction in performance for all stats on account of being on the road in this game.

Caleb Martin has successfully made a mere 36.1% of his field goal attempts this season, significantly less than his 46.7 mark last season. Caleb Martin has successfully made a lowly 24.8% of his 3-pointers this season, quite a bit lower than his 33.5 mark last season. In contrast to last year's 28.9 clip, Caleb Martin's playing time has diminished this year to 21.1 minutes per game. Caleb Martin has tallied 0.3 technical fouls per game this season, significantly more than his 0.0 technicals per game last season. The Heat check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

In comparison to last season's 30.9% mark, Bruce Brown's 3-point ability has dropped this season to 6.7%. Bruce Brown has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's averaged in all games this season at home. This year when they are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have notched 13.3 points per game (6th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, creating a hard matchup for offensive effectiveness. The Pacers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. Miami is a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a mere 2.4 free throws per game this year when the Heat are the visiting squad (7th-least in the league).

Josh Richardson has gone over 11.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Bennedict Mathurin has gone over 13.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Kevin Love has gone over 7.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

T.J. McConnell has gone over 7.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.