Good thing it's Festivus, because Toronto Raptors fans need to air some grievances.
The Raptors have looked awful in back-to-back losses, particularly on offense. Some will try to blame the results on injuries, but my Raptors vs. Heat predictions see the lack of effort as troubling.
And not putting in effort against a team like the Miami Heat, even one in a slump, is a recipe for disaster.
Toronto fans could receive a lump of coal this Christmas, but as long as you back these NBA picks, you’ll at least have some cash in your stocking.
Raptors vs Heat prediction
Raptors vs Heat best bet: Raptors team total Under 111.5 (-115)
Ever since RJ Barrett went down with a knee injury, things have kind of imploded for the Toronto Raptors.
They are 4-8 straight up and 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games overall. And it would be one thing just to blame the injuries (Jakob Poeltl has missed some time as well), but that would overlook the lack of effort as well.
Just look at Toronto’s last game, a 96-81 debacle against the Brooklyn Nets. That’s a bad final score in 1995, and a catastrophe in 2025.
The numbers back that up. The Raptors enter Tuesday night’s game against the Miami Heat dead-last in offensive rating during this 12-game stretch.
Now, the Heat are also in a bit of a slump, going 2-8 SU/ATS in their last 10 overall. But generally speaking, the defense has still been there for Miami, ranking eighth in NBA in defensive rating.
The Heat’s biggest weakness on defense is that they prefer to clog the paint with Bam Adebayo, leaving the perimeter open. But the Raptors aren’t equipped to take advantage of that, making the eighth-fewest threes per game this season.
All that has me thinking buckets will be tough to come by for Toronto. The Raps have a team total of 111.5, and that’s a number they’ve played below in nine of the last 12 games, including the last five in a row.
Air your grievances Raptors fans. They stay below this number once again, but at least you can give yourself a gift of cash with a bet on the Under.
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Raptors vs Heat same-game parlay
The Heat run a high-tempo, ball-movement offence. In fact, they lead the NBA in pace. That creates a lot of opportunities for assists, even for a big like Adebayo.
The Heat big man averages 2.4 assists per game this season and had four assists just two games ago against Boston.
With Poeltl sidelined again, the Raptors could be forced to collapse on Adebayo to get the ball out of his hands, where he will hopefully find his teammates for some open looks.
That pace of play, and playing pretty small this season, also means there are a lot of rebounds up for grabs in Heat games. Miami surrenders the most opponent rebounds per game this season.
That has me looking at Scottie Barnes’ rebounding prop which is sitting at 8.5. He is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game this season and has gone Over this number in eight of his last 13 games.
Raptors vs Heat SGP
- Raptors team total Under 111.5
- Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 assists
- Scottie Barnes Over 8.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Boom, boom, Powell
The Heat don't leave the perimeter open at time. But the Raptors can't shoot so that should mean long boards for Norman Powell in this one.
Raptors vs Heat SGP
- Raptors team total Under 111.5
- Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 assists
- Scottie Barnes Over 8.5 rebounds
- Norman Powell Over 3.5 rebounds
Raptors vs Heat odds
- Spread: Raptors +5.5 | Heat -5.5
- Moneyline: Raptors +175 | Heat -210
- Over/Under: Over 228 | Under 228
Raptors vs Heat betting trend to know
The Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 53 of their last 83 games for +21.80 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.
How to watch Raptors vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Tuesday, December 23, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, FDSN-Sun |
Raptors vs Heat latest injuries
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