Miami @ Denver props

The matchup against Denver is a challenging one; when the Nuggets are on their home court, they have allowed the 7th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PFs this year (14.0). The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games. The Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games in their home stadium, which should decrease plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Caleb Martin will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium tends to worsens stat production across the board.

The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to 3-point attempts. The matchup against the Heat is a tough one; they have given up the 12th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting Cs this year (11.9). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing at home. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets. The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting Cs have attempted a lowly 2.4 foul shots per game this year (14th-least in the NBA).

Aaron Gordon has converted 54.2% of his field goal attempts playing at home this year, ranking in the 84th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Aaron Gordon has played 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.6 higher than he's played overall this year. The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists). When playing away from home, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Heat may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.6 free throws per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the league).

Jamal Murray has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's been called for in all games this year. The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to 3-point attempts. The matchup against Miami is a difficult one; when the Heat are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 12th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting PGs this year (16.2). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing at home. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets.

Jeff Green has made 50.0% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 23.0% higher than he's converted from three overall this year. The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists). When playing away from home, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). Jeff Green has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 27.4% more than he's made over the course of the season. The matchup against the Heat may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.6 free throws per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the league).

Bruce Brown has averaged 2.3 personal fouls per game at home this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling. The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to 3-point attempts. The matchup against Miami is a difficult one; when the Heat are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 12th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting PGs this year (16.2). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing at home. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets.

Kevin Love has converted 54.2% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games, 22.5% more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this season. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA away from home this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc. The Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Nuggets may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 6.1 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (30th-most in the NBA).

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 7.7 baskets per game this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among all players in the league. Bam Adebayo has been on the court for 34.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 94th percentile. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA away from home this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc. The Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo has attempted 5.1 foul shots per game this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among all players in the NBA.

Max Strus has committed 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA when it comes to getting T'ed up (81st percentile). The matchup against the Nuggets is a tough one for three-pointers; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the 7th-least 3-pointers per game in the league this year (1.8). The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games. The Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games in their home stadium, which should decrease plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Jimmy Butler has attempted 20.2 shots per game over the last 10 games without the home court advantage, 5.1 more than he's attempted in all games this year on the road. Jimmy Butler has sunk 1.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 more than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season. Jimmy Butler has played 40.0 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.7 higher than he's played overall this year. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA away from home this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc. The Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Kyle Lowry has made 47.9% of his field goals over the last 15 games on the road, 5.5% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season on the road. Kyle Lowry has averaged 29.0 minutes per game while playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA away from home this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc. The Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Kyle Lowry has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 11.7% more than he's sunk over the course of the year.

Gabe Vincent has converted 3.4 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 more than he's made from three over the course of the year. Gabe Vincent has been on the court for 32.9 minutes per game over the last 10 games on the road, 6.4 more than he's been on the court for overall this year on the road. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA away from home this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup against Denver is a strong one for 3-pointers; when the Nuggets are on their home court, the opposition's starting PGs have shot for the 28th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (38.3%). The Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Duncan Robinson has gone over 7.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Haywood Highsmith has gone over 4.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Michael Porter Jr. has gone over 15.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has gone over 9.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.