NBA Picks

Detroit may not be built for this moment, as their offense has completely stalled in this series. They rank dead-last in playoff offensive rating and are the only team averaging under 100 points per game, despite getting to the free throw line at a high rate. Including the play-in, the Magic are allowing just 98.5 points per game this postseason.

RJ Barrett is trading at -110 for over 19.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking—I make it closer to -180. He’s been a matchup nightmare for the Cavaliers in this series. Smaller defenders like Sam Merrill and Max Strus can’t handle his physical, downhill style, while bigger options like Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen struggle to stay in front of him on the perimeter. It’s a tough in-between matchup that Barrett has consistently exploited. He’s averaging 24.3 points per game in the series, but the real story is his role and minutes. After playing around 30 minutes per game in the regular season, Barrett has logged 38+ minutes in each of the last three games—two of which the Raptors won. With his expanded role and clear matchup advantages, this sets up as another strong scoring spot for Barrett.

Regardless of how you feel about the player, it’s tough to ignore Jabari Smith Jr.’s points prop at 16.5 with -110 on the over. Smith is averaging 42 minutes per game in this series, and in each of his last two outings, he’s taken 10 three-point attempts. For a player logging that kind of workload and shot volume—especially with Kevin Durant out—16.5 points feels too low. He’s clearly being relied on to carry more of the scoring burden. With the Rockets facing elimination again, there’s little reason to expect anything less than 40+ minutes. When you combine that role with his shot profile, this number looks mispriced. I have it closer to -170, which makes the current line a strong value on the over.

Karl-Anthony Towns scored 14 points in the first half of Game 5 and the Hawks had no answer for the Knicks 7-footer. Then he managed only two more points in the 2H, as he logged limited minutes in the blowout. KAT continues to grow as a playmaker out of the high post, dishing out 16 total assists the past two contests. With Game 6 expected to be tighter, Towns logs major minutes and packs the box score with points and assists, going Over his combo prop of 22.5 O/U.

Pritchard is picking up the slack, not just left by stars like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum but also the rest of the Celtics’ support staff. Derrick White is broken and Sam Hauser is ineffective, leaving key minutes to fall to Pritchard. He’s a collective 22 for 43 from the field the past three games (51%) and with Game 6 expected to be the tightest of the series (Boston -6.5), game script says he’ll log his standard of 32+ minutes. Player projections are positive for Pritchard as well, with models ranging from 14.9 to 15.3 points in a crucial contest for the Celtics.