Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 11, 2026
DET
@
CLE
Mon, May 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Duncan Robinson o2.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)
The Pistons’ sharpshooter is clicking at 58% from distance in the series, 43% for the playoffs, and has knocked down at least three triples in eight of his 10 postseason outing. Fourteen of his 24 total 3-point shots have come with no defender within at least four feet of Robinson (making nine of those “open” to “wide open” looks). It also helps that Robinson is 6-foot-7 and facing smaller defenders in Donovan Mitchell (6-foot-2), James Harden (6-foot-5), Max Strus (6-foot-5), who struggle to get a hand up on closeouts. His Game 4 forecast call for at least three makes from downtown with a ceiling of 3.6 treys.
Cade Cunningham o9.5 Total Assists (+110)
Part of the problem in Game 3 was that Cleveland couldn’t miss on offense, shooting a sizzling 58% from the field. That forced a Detroit attack to start its possessions off the inbounds, rather than having their defense fuel the offense in transition and from turnovers. The Cavs’ shooting comes back to earth in Game 4 and Cunningham will find himself in his usual spot behind the wheel, pushing pace and creating for teammates in the open floor. His models for Game 4 are divided, ranging from 8.2 to 10.3 assists. Given the unique circumstances on Saturday, I’m leaning toward the high side of Cunningham’s playmaking versus a Cleveland defense that’s 25th in opponent assist rate (64.9%).
OKC
@
LAL
Mon, May 11 • 10:30 PM ET
Luguentz Dort o1.5 3-Pointers Made (-105)
Dort has connected for two more treys in five of OKC’s first seven playoff games and is shooting 37% from deep in the postseason. All 13 of his 3-point attempts are graded as “open” or “wide open”, with no defender within at least four feet – including 10 3PAs with no Lakers within six feet. Dort, who strangely shoots significantly better beyond the arc on the road (39.4% vs. 30.8% at home), is projected for two makes from distance in Game 4 with models either leaning to the Over or call for 2+ triples.
Isaiah Hartenstein o8.5 Points Scored (+110)
Hartenstein is getting his share of looks, especially with L.A. selling out to stop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That past two games, he’s a collective 11 for 13 from the floor for totals of 10 and 12 points with his usage almost doubling to 13.2% from 7.3% in Game 1. His 31 minutes in Game 3 tied his season high in floor time and his seven shots matched his postseason pinnacle. His scoring prop for tonight remain modest, however, at 8.5 O/U. Game 4 projections are very bullish on the Oklahoma City’s big man, with most north of 9.5 points and a ceiling of 11.0.
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MIN
@
SA
Tue, May 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Victor Wembanyama o12.5 Total Rebounds (-125)
In the three games prior to his Game 4 ejection, Wembanyama snatched up 15 rebounds in each outing on almost 22 rebounding chances per game. Wemby has plucked at least 13 boards in a dozen of his previous 15 games prior to the Game 4 ejection. With the series swinging back to San Antonio, Minnesota’s shooting could take a dip. That means more rebounding chances for Wembanyama, who is projected for as many as 15+ boards again.
Ayo Dosunmu o1.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)
Minnesota had shot 30 and 40 3PAs in the two games prior to Game 4, so with Wembanyama clear of a suspension, expect the T-Wolves to get pushed back out to the perimeter in Game 5. Guard Ayo Dosunmu went 1 for 4 from 3-point range in Game 4, which was a stark decline from his 3-for-8 effort from outside in Game 3. He missed Game 1 due to injury and was limited to only 10 minutes in Game 2, shooting 0 for 1 from distance. His 3-point prop for Game 5 is offering great value on the Over 1.5 considering game script and projections at 1.8 3PMs.
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