NBA Picks

If all Jarrett Allen needs is eight or more rebounds on Monday, then give me that number all the way up to 60%, with 53% feeling like a steal.

Allen has been a certified double-double machine against Minnesota, registering five in the last six encounters to the tune of 17.2 points and 11.5 boards.

That should be difficult to pull off standing opposite a four-time Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert, yet Allen consistently and effectively continues to find ways to get his numbers. 

The 6-foot-9 center is bringing in 7.5 in a small sample size, but his rebounding chances are nearly double that at 14. If the Timberwolves get sloppy offensively, then expect to see Allen clean up their mess.

I'd fade Diabate here up to 53%. He'll have his hands full against Davis, and foul trouble is always a concern with Charlotte's physical big man. Diabate has fallen short of this number in all three games so far this season (7.0 RPG), and the arrival of Reid in the starting lineup is cutting into his rebounding tallies.

Giddey is in a favorable situation Monday, and I’ll trade this line up to 8.5. Chicago’s floor general has handed out 8+ assists in 35 of his last 57 appearances, including a 10-assist performance against Boston last season.

The C’s have given up the 12th-most assists (27), and they’ve allowed opponents to hit 38.8% of three-point shots. Chicago ranks fourth in 3PA (41.3), and Giddey will have a clear outlet to feed teammates on the perimeter and clear this assists line.

The Miami Heat only had two losing streaks of four games or more in 2025-26, and the first didn't occur until Dec. 9. It currently sits 27th in both offense (105.1 points per 100 possessions) and defense (121.4 points per 100 possessions allowed). This is a roster that was projected to be vying for a top-five defense, with elite defenders like Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, and Davion Mitchell in the starting unit. That hasn't manifested as of yet, but that core is too stacked in that department not to get their act together sooner rather than later.

Working in the Heat's favor is the Dallas Mavericks being down key bodies, with Naji Marshall (illness) officially out and former No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg questionable as of Monday morning with a bad shoulder. Flagg's potential absence would be especially devastating, as Dallas was just 4-8 straight up whenever he was unavailable during his rookie year.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has become one of the most reliable scorers in the NBA over the past four years, averaging at least 30.1 ppg in each of those campaigns. SGA has continued to show his scoring prowess to start the year, pouring in 32+ points in two of his first three games. I'm trading Gilgeous-Alexander to get 30+ points tonight at up to 65%.

Alexander-Walker has cooled off some since a spectacular opener against the Magic where he accumulated 38 PRA, as he's averaged 24.5 PRA in the subsequent pair of contests while shooting a middling 42.9%. The Rockets typically have played very stingy defense at home during the last couple of seasons once Ime Udoka's system took hold, and Houston's backcourt is also back to full strength Monday with Fred VanVleet back from a rest day.

It's rare to find significant value on an 81% moneyline favorite, but that's exactly what we have with the Celtics, who I price closer to 89% against the Nets. Brooklyn will struggle to create offense against Boston's switchable defense, while Egor Demin faces relentless point-of-attack pressure. Meanwhile, Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta can limit Julius Randle's opportunities around the rim. Boston is already a heavy favorite, but my projections suggest the market still isn't giving the Celtics enough credit.

The Spurs offer a small edge at 88%, as I price them closer to 90% favorites against the Kings. Victor Wembanyama's defensive impact is amplified in this matchup, as Domantas Sabonis' lack of perimeter shooting allows Wembanyama to sag off, disrupt passing lanes, and protect the rim. That creates problems for Sacramento's offense and makes it tougher for Darius Acuff Jr. to attack the basket. It's a steep price, but Wembanyama's matchup advantage gives San Antonio value.

The Jalen Duren injury looms large against Karl-Anthony Towns, while Ausar Thompson's questionable tag adds another concern for Detroit. If Thompson sits, the Pistons lose a key point-of-attack defender against Jalen Brunson. I price the Knicks as showing an edge at 60% favorites even with Thompson projected to play limited minutes, making New York an appealing side. If Thompson is ruled out, the Knicks' edge only grows.

Luka Doncic is coming off a 52-point explosion, but Toumani Camara and Jrue Holiday offer a much tougher defensive challenge. Donovan Clingan can protect the paint and limit Doncic's driving lanes, especially with Walker Kessler's lack of perimeter shooting allowing Portland to keep its rim protection intact. The Trail Blazers are among the NBA's most underrated teams early this season, and I'll gladly back them as 42% underdogs against the Lakers.