New York Mets Picks
5th in National League East
(40 - 57)
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NYM @ PHI Picks
MLB Picks
The first half of the season was a disaster for the Mets, but this plus-money price with the better pitching matchup is too good to pass up. THE BAT makes this fair price -106, giving it a projected ROI of 9.4%. The last time Christian Scott faced the Phillies, he lasted 82 pitches and allowed two runs on three hits as the Mets cruised to a 6-2 win as -130 favorites. Aaron Nola has been one of the most home run-prone pitchers in baseball this season, and the Phillies have dropped four of his last five starts. It could be an All-Star host hangover for Philadelphia, and I'm backing the dog.
Lefties have done the most damage against Christian Scott, which gives us plenty of Phillies bats to choose from. For the price, it's tough to ignore Brandon Marsh at +400 or better. Kyle Schwarber's and Bryce Harper's numbers have been bet down too far, while left-handed hitters have accounted for 11 of Scott's 15 home runs allowed. Marsh is a .300 hitter who was batting .335 to begin June. His BlastContact% sits just behind the big boppers in Harper and Schwarber, and he's not a guy looking to take a free pass with just a 5.2% walk rate. When he steps into the box, he's swinging. He faced Scott back in late June, and his only ball in play was a hard-hit single. Half of the balls put in play against Scott that day were hit at 95 mph or harder. Marsh has treated me well all season, and this is the price where I'm jumping back in while everyone else is piling onto Schwarber and Harper.
Juan Soto brings strong power indicators into this matchup, carrying a .302 ISO over the last two weeks with four homers in his last 13 games. He has also handled Aaron Nola well historically, while Nola has struggled with the long ball recently, allowing 2.61 HR/9 over the last month.
Bryson Stott entered the break swinging well, collecting four hits across his last two games, including three singles. His .291 xBA over the last seven games supports the recent contact, and Christian Scott’s four-seamer-heavy approach gives Stott a clear pitch matchup to attack after posting strong hard-contact numbers against fastballs.
JT Realmuto has shown more extra-base upside than his recent batting average suggests, posting a .250 ISO and 42.9% hard-hit rate over his last six games. He has cleared this total in three of four contests, while Christian Scott has allowed hard contact and 2.03 HR/9 over his last three outings.
With how poorly Nola has pitched this season and how hot the Mets offense was heading into the break, I want to be on the over.
Batters-Box projects six combined elite-rated bats and three more with strong ratings. Scott owns a poor rating in the default settings, while Nola carries a poor rating in the current season dataset. Both pitchers also grade out poorly in matchup hard contact, wOBA, and ISO.
Despite the first game back from the All-Star break being in the City of Brotherly Love, I think this is a letdown spot for the Philadelphia Phillies. Especially with Aaron Nola on the mound, as he owns a 6.61 ERA over his last three outings.
Meanwhile, New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott has been more than serviceable over his last three starts, posting a 3.38 ERA, 4.14 xERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Before the break, the Mets were on a tear, sporting a 117 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .172 ISO, and .757 OPS over their previous 12 games.
I don't venture into this price range too often, but on a smaller card, with a +EV number and a ton of familiarity in the matchup, Juan Soto is making the card today. He projects for nearly the same home run probability as Kyle Schwarber, but at a price roughly 50 points longer, according to Covers projections powered by THE BAT. Soto has also seen plenty of Aaron Nola over his career, facing him 42 times and taking him deep five times. One homer every eight at-bats is an elite home run rate against any pitcher. Nola has been a punching bag for hitters this season, ranking second-worst among qualified starters in HR/9, fourth-worst in HR/FB rate, and fourth-worst in BlastContact%. Since the start of 2024, left-handed hitters have accounted for 65% of the home runs he's allowed. I'm playing this down to +200.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusNYM @ PHI · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TOTAL HITS
B. Marsh
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
1.00
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
K. Schwarber
(DH)
0.5 Total Hits
0.91
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-0.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. Polanco
(DH)
0.5 Total Hits
0.99
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-3.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
F. Alvarez
(C)
0.5 Total Hits
0.87
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-3.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. Soto
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
1.19
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-4.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
B. Stott
(2B)
0.5 Total Hits
0.99
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-4.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
T. Turner
(SS)
0.5 Total Hits
1.15
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-6.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
J. Polanco
(DH)
1.5 Total Bases
1.81
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
15.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
B. Stott
(2B)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.19
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
8.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
C. Scott
(SP)
5.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.87
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
-24.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
F. Alvarez
(C)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.58
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
17.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. Polanco
(DH)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.62
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
15.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
K. Schwarber
(DH)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.93
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
15.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
B. Stott
(2B)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.59
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. Crawford
(CF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.32
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
J. Polanco
(1B)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.25
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
16.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
K. Schwarber
(DH)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.87
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
15.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
A. Bohm
(3B)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.10
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
8.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
B. Marsh
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.24
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
8.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
T. Turner
(SS)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.34
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
8.01%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low