New York Mets

5th in National League East (62 - 76)

Next Game

Tue, Sep 1 18:40 ET

NYM @ TB Picks

MLB Picks
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez logo
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+265)
Projection 1.4
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.
Total Bases
Marcus Semien logo
Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.5
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.
Total Bases
Juan Soto logo
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.88
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.. Utilizing Statcast data, Juan Soto ranks in the 98th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .395.
Total Bases
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.14
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor logo
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.. Francisco Lindor has posted a .345 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases
Bo Bichette logo
Bo Bichette o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.. Posting a .311 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Bo Bichette has performed in the 99th percentile.
Total Bases
Ryan Vilade logo
Ryan Vilade u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.8
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Ryan Vilade is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan Vilade has had some very good luck given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.. Based on Statcast metrics, Ryan Vilade ranks in the 16th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .187.. Ryan Vilade and his -5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.
Total Bases
Brett Baty logo
Brett Baty o1.5 Total Bases (+280)
Projection 1.17
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.
Total Bases
Jorge Mateo logo
Jorge Mateo u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jorge Mateo ranks in the 3rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .188.
Total Bases
Yandy Diaz logo
Yandy Diaz o1.5 Total Bases (+107)
Projection 1.95
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Total

68% picking NY Mets vs Tampa Bay to go Over

68%
32%

Total PicksNYM 150, TB 72

Total
Over
Under

NYM @ TB · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
MONEYLINE
New York Mets logo
NYM +117 moneyline
NYM PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
New York Mets logo
NYM +117 moneyline

PROJECTION

NYM PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.57% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+117
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
New York Mets logo Tampa Bay Rays logo
Over 8.0 Total
9.31 PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
14.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
New York Mets logo Tampa Bay Rays logo
Over 8.0 Total

PROJECTION

9.31 PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
14.63% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o7.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
SPREAD
New York Mets logo
NYM -1.5 spread
-0.15 PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
6.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
New York Mets logo
NYM -1.5 spread

PROJECTION

-0.15 PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
6.27% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+1.5 -182
BetRivers logo
TOTAL HITS
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.77 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.77 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.8% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jared Young today.. Jared Young has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.. Jared Young has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 85.6-mph over the past 7 days.

u0.5 +130
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.80 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.80 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.08% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Ryan Vilade is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan Vilade has had some very good luck given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.. Based on Statcast metrics, Ryan Vilade ranks in the 16th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .187.. Ryan Vilade and his -5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.

u0.5 +140
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total Hits
0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
2.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
2.78% EV

ANALYSIS

Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jorge Mateo ranks in the 3rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .188.

u0.5 +110
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 0.5 Total Hits
0.75 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
1.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.75 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
1.85% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.5-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.9-mph.. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.4% to 6.7%.

u0.5 +125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HITS
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.04 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.04 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.66% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, falling from 10.8% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games.. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 48.7% to 41.1%.

u0.5 +200
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total Hits
0.76 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.76 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.

o0.5 -105
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.89 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.89 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.27% EV

ANALYSIS

Jonny DeLuca is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. The 9th-deepest CF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In the past two weeks, Jonny DeLuca's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.4%.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jonny DeLuca has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

u0.5 +140
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.88 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.88 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o0.5 -135
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total Hits
1.08 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-1.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.08 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-1.94% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Over the past 7 days, Junior Caminero's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 0%.. In the past two weeks, Junior Caminero's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.3%.. Junior Caminero has been lucky this year, compiling a .379 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .351 — a .028 deviation.

u0.5 +200
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.91 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-2.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.91 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-2.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will be at a big disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Jonathan Aranda has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 9.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 7 days.. Jonathan Aranda's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 16.3% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.

u0.5 +150
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.05% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Carson Benge will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Carson Benge has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph dropping to 84.2-mph over the past 14 days.

u0.5 +160
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-4.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-4.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Juan Soto will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. From last season to this one, Juan Soto's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 98.7 mph to 95.7 mph.

u0.5 +155
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total Hits
1.18 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-4.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.18 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-4.85% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Yandy Diaz's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 93-mph mark last year has fallen off to 90.7-mph.. Compared to his seasonal angle of 6°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.5°) over the last 14 days.. Despite posting a .362 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yandy Diaz has had positive variance on his side given the .021 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .341.

u0.5 +220
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total Hits
0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.17% EV

ANALYSIS

Taylor Walls's batting average ability is projected to be in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Taylor Walls is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today's game.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Taylor Walls has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the last week.. In notching a .270 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Taylor Walls is positioned in the 6th percentile for hitting ability.

u0.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HITS
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.87 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.87 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.19% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his BABIP talent, A.J. Ewing is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, A.J. Ewing will have an edge in today's game.. A.J. Ewing has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates A.J. Ewing's true offensive talent to be a .312, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .022 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .290 wOBA.. A.J. Ewing has posted a .313 BABIP this year, grading out in the 75th percentile.

o0.5 -148
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total Hits
1.13 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-5.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.13 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-5.79% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.. Posting a .311 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Bo Bichette has performed in the 99th percentile.

o0.5 -235
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total Hits
0.96 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-6.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.96 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-6.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Freddy Peralta today.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.. Francisco Lindor has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 85.2-mph in the past two weeks.

u0.5 +155
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-7.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-7.65% EV

ANALYSIS

Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.. Brett Baty has posted a .274 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +102
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 1.5 Total Bases
1.40 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.40 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
19% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.

o1.5 +265
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.50 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
18.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.50 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
18.78% EV

ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o1.5 +220
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.88 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
18.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.88 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
18.75% EV

ANALYSIS

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.. Utilizing Statcast data, Juan Soto ranks in the 98th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .395.

o1.5 +155
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 1.5 Total Bases
2.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
15.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

2.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
15.3% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

o1.5 +105
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 1.5 Total Bases
1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
14.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
14.52% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.. Francisco Lindor has posted a .345 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +155
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.73 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.73 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.. Posting a .311 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Bo Bichette has performed in the 99th percentile.

o1.5 +150
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
0.80 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
12.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.80 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
12.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Ryan Vilade is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan Vilade has had some very good luck given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.. Based on Statcast metrics, Ryan Vilade ranks in the 16th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .187.. Ryan Vilade and his -5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.

u1.5 -180
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

o1.5 +280
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 1.5 Total Bases
0.67 PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
10.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.67 PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
10.99% EV

ANALYSIS

Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jorge Mateo ranks in the 3rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .188.

u1.5 -240
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 1.5 Total Bases
1.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
10.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
10.55% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 +120
BetRivers logo
TOTAL BASES
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 +165
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 1.5 Total Bases
0.77 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
10.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.77 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
10.1% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jared Young today.. Jared Young has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.. Jared Young has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 85.6-mph over the past 7 days.

u1.5 -220
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 1.5 Total Bases
1.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Taylor Walls has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° mark last season.. Taylor Walls's launch angle of late (32° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

o1.5 +290
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.42 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.42 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. The 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the majors are found in Tropicana Field.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Jonny DeLuca will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Jonny DeLuca will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.. Jonny DeLuca has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 86.2-mph.

o1.5 +200
BetRivers logo
TOTAL BASES
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 1.5 Total Bases
0.75 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
7.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.75 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
7.54% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.5-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.9-mph.. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.4% to 6.7%.

u1.5 -260
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Jonathan Aranda has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

o1.5 +180
BetRivers logo
TOTAL BASES
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 1.5 Total Bases
0.87 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
3.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.87 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
3.56% EV

ANALYSIS

A.J. Ewing is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. A.J. Ewing will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.. Over the last 14 days, A.J. Ewing's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.

u1.5 -260
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.22 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.22 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.48% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, falling from 10.8% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

u1.5 -190
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
15.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
15.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.

o0.5 +700
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.14 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
12.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.14 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
12.31% EV

ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o0.5 +850
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
11.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
11.85% EV

ANALYSIS

Taylor Walls has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° mark last season.. Taylor Walls's launch angle of late (32° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

o0.5 +1500
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
10.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
10.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

o0.5 +1050
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
8.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
8.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor's launch angle of late (22.4° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit higher than his 19.1° seasonal figure.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.

o0.5 +600
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
4.22% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
4.22% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Jonathan Aranda has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

o0.5 +900
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.26 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
3.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.26 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
3.76% EV

ANALYSIS

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.

o0.5 +425
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.. By putting up a .356 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Bo Bichette is ranked in the 86th percentile for offensive skills.

o0.5 +850
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV

ANALYSIS

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Carson Benge ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Carson Benge's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 16.8% on the season to 25.8% in the last two weeks.

o0.5 +850
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.28 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-1.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.28 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-1.35% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o0.5 +310
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.13 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.13 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Ryan Vilade is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan Vilade has had some very good luck given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.. Ryan Vilade and his -5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.

u0.5 -752
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.01% EV

ANALYSIS

A.J. Ewing is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. A.J. Ewing will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.. Over the last 14 days, A.J. Ewing's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, A.J. Ewing's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 91.8 mph to 83.3 mph.

u0.5 -1695
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.46% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jared Young today.. Jared Young has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.. Jared Young has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 85.6-mph over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jared Young's true offensive ability to be a .305, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .032 disparity between that figure and his actual .337 wOBA.

u0.5 -1099
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.55% EV

ANALYSIS

Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Compared to his seasonal angle of 12.9°, Jorge Mateo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (9°) in the past 14 days.

u0.5 -1299
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.62% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Yandy Diaz's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 93-mph mark last year has fallen off to 90.7-mph.. Compared to his seasonal angle of 6°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.5°) over the last 14 days.. Despite posting a .362 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yandy Diaz has had positive variance on his side given the .021 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .341.

u0.5 -649
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.96% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Nick Fortes ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.5-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.9-mph.. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.4% to 6.7%.

u0.5 -2000
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.72% EV

ANALYSIS

Jonny DeLuca is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. The 9th-deepest CF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In the past two weeks, Jonny DeLuca's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.4%.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jonny DeLuca has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

u0.5 -1299
bet365 logo
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
Sean Manaea logo
New York Mets logo
S. Manaea (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Sean Manaea logo
New York Mets logo
S. Manaea (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

PROJECTION

4.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.45% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 20.2% underlying K%.. It is anticipated that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Ben May) calling pitches in this game.. Because of his large platoon split, Sean Manaea will have a disadvantage facing 6 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side today.. Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Sean Manaea in today's matchup.. Sean Manaea's slider usage has fallen by 5.1% from last season to this one (34.9% to 29.8%) .

u4.5 -110
BetMGM logo
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
Freddy Peralta logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
F. Peralta (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.84 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-2.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Freddy Peralta logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
F. Peralta (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

PROJECTION

4.84 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-2.82% EV

ANALYSIS

It is anticipated that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Ben May) calling pitches in this game.. With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Freddy Peralta encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Freddy Peralta has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 52.5% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

u4.5 +105
BetMGM logo
TOTAL RBIS
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
20.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
20.31% EV

ANALYSIS

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.

o0.5 +210
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.86 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
18.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.86 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
18.41% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

o0.5 +140
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.

o0.5 +280
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.53 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
17.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.53 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
17.39% EV

ANALYSIS

Jonny DeLuca has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. The 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the majors are found in Tropicana Field.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Jonny DeLuca will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Jonny DeLuca will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

o0.5 +230
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
16.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
16.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.. Francisco Lindor has posted a .345 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +240
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.46 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.46 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Jonathan Aranda has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Jonathan Aranda has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 93.3-mph in the past two weeks.

o0.5 +260
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.56 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.56 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.04% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.

o0.5 +201
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.71% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

o0.5 +330
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.47 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.47 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o0.5 +240
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.35 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.35 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.44% EV

ANALYSIS

Taylor Walls has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° mark last season.. Taylor Walls's launch angle of late (32° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

o0.5 +330
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o0.5 +204
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

o0.5 +187
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
8.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
8.54% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan Vilade is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Ryan Vilade will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Manaea has a large platoon split.. Ryan Vilade will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Ryan Vilade's quickness has gotten better this year. His 27.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.54 ft/sec now.. Checking in at the 92nd percentile, the hardest ball Ryan Vilade has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.6 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

o0.5 +200
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
7.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
7.53% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his BABIP talent, A.J. Ewing is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, A.J. Ewing will have an edge in today's game.. A.J. Ewing has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates A.J. Ewing's true offensive talent to be a .312, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .022 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .290 wOBA.

o0.5 +275
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.14% EV

ANALYSIS

Jared Young is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Jared Young will have the upper hand today.. Jared Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. With a 29.500 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jared Young grades out in the 91st percentile for power.

o0.5 +222
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.68% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Jorge Mateo will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Manaea in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Manaea has a large platoon split.. Jorge Mateo will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. In the past 7 days, Jorge Mateo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.6-mph over the course of the season to 92.8-mph of late.. Over the last 7 days, Jorge Mateo's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.2%.

o0.5 +233
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.30 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.30 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, falling from 10.8% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

u0.5 -320
theScore Bet logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.74 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
17.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.74 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
17.46% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.

o1.5 +170
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.39 PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
16.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.39 PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
16.87% EV

ANALYSIS

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.. Utilizing Statcast data, Juan Soto ranks in the 98th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .395.

o1.5 +100
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.71 PROJECTION
+1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.74% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.71 PROJECTION
+1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.74% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 -133
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.82 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
13.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.82 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
13.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o1.5 +135
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.20 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
11.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.20 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
11.94% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.

o1.5 -107
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.46 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
11.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.46 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
11.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

o1.5 +183
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.12 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
10.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.12 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
10.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.

o1.5 -105
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.46 PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.46 PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.18% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 -145
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.94 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.94 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 +102
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
8.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
8.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Jonathan Aranda has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

o1.5 +102
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.64 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
7.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.64 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
7.66% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his BABIP talent, A.J. Ewing is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, A.J. Ewing will have an edge in today's game.. A.J. Ewing has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates A.J. Ewing's true offensive talent to be a .312, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .022 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .290 wOBA.

o1.5 +140
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.77 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
6.34% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.77 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
6.34% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan Vilade is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Ryan Vilade will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Manaea has a large platoon split.. Ryan Vilade will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Ryan Vilade's quickness has gotten better this year. His 27.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.54 ft/sec now.

o1.5 +115
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.41 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
5.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.41 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
5.45% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Taylor Walls has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° mark last season.. Taylor Walls's launch angle of late (32° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

o1.5 +165
FanDuel logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.63 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.63 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Jared Young is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Jared Young will have the upper hand today.. Jared Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. With a 29.500 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jared Young grades out in the 91st percentile for power.

o1.5 +127
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-2.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-2.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.

u1.5 -114
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jorge Mateo ranks in the 3rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .188.

u1.5 -155
BetMGM logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
MONEYLINE
New York Mets logo
NYM +117 moneyline
NYM PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
New York Mets logo
NYM +117 moneyline

PROJECTION

NYM PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.57% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+117
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
New York Mets logo Tampa Bay Rays logo
Over 8.0 Total
9.31 PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
14.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
New York Mets logo Tampa Bay Rays logo
Over 8.0 Total

PROJECTION

9.31 PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
14.63% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o7.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
SPREAD
New York Mets logo
NYM -1.5 spread
-0.15 PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
6.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
New York Mets logo
NYM -1.5 spread

PROJECTION

-0.15 PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
6.27% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+1.5 -182
BetRivers logo
TOTAL HITS
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.77 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.77 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.8% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jared Young today.. Jared Young has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.. Jared Young has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 85.6-mph over the past 7 days.

u0.5 +130
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.80 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.80 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
3.08% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Ryan Vilade is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan Vilade has had some very good luck given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.. Based on Statcast metrics, Ryan Vilade ranks in the 16th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .187.. Ryan Vilade and his -5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.

u0.5 +140
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total Hits
0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
2.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
2.78% EV

ANALYSIS

Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jorge Mateo ranks in the 3rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .188.

u0.5 +110
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 0.5 Total Hits
0.75 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
1.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.75 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
1.85% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.5-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.9-mph.. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.4% to 6.7%.

u0.5 +125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HITS
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.04 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.04 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.66% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, falling from 10.8% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games.. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 48.7% to 41.1%.

u0.5 +200
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total Hits
0.76 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.76 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.

o0.5 -105
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.89 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.89 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.27% EV

ANALYSIS

Jonny DeLuca is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. The 9th-deepest CF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In the past two weeks, Jonny DeLuca's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.4%.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jonny DeLuca has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

u0.5 +140
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.88 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.88 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o0.5 -135
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total Hits
1.08 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-1.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.08 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-1.94% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Over the past 7 days, Junior Caminero's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 0%.. In the past two weeks, Junior Caminero's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.3%.. Junior Caminero has been lucky this year, compiling a .379 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .351 — a .028 deviation.

u0.5 +200
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.91 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-2.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.91 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-2.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will be at a big disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Jonathan Aranda has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 9.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 7 days.. Jonathan Aranda's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 16.3% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.

u0.5 +150
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.05% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Carson Benge will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Carson Benge has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph dropping to 84.2-mph over the past 14 days.

u0.5 +160
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-4.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-4.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Juan Soto will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. From last season to this one, Juan Soto's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 98.7 mph to 95.7 mph.

u0.5 +155
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total Hits
1.18 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-4.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.18 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-4.85% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Yandy Diaz's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 93-mph mark last year has fallen off to 90.7-mph.. Compared to his seasonal angle of 6°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.5°) over the last 14 days.. Despite posting a .362 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yandy Diaz has had positive variance on his side given the .021 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .341.

u0.5 +220
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HITS
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total Hits
0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.17% EV

ANALYSIS

Taylor Walls's batting average ability is projected to be in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Taylor Walls is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today's game.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Taylor Walls has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the last week.. In notching a .270 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Taylor Walls is positioned in the 6th percentile for hitting ability.

u0.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HITS
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.87 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.87 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.19% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his BABIP talent, A.J. Ewing is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, A.J. Ewing will have an edge in today's game.. A.J. Ewing has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates A.J. Ewing's true offensive talent to be a .312, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .022 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .290 wOBA.. A.J. Ewing has posted a .313 BABIP this year, grading out in the 75th percentile.

o0.5 -148
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total Hits
1.13 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-5.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.13 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-5.79% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.. Posting a .311 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Bo Bichette has performed in the 99th percentile.

o0.5 -235
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total Hits
0.96 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-6.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.96 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-6.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Freddy Peralta today.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.. Francisco Lindor has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 85.2-mph in the past two weeks.

u0.5 +155
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-7.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-7.65% EV

ANALYSIS

Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.. Brett Baty has posted a .274 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +102
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 1.5 Total Bases
1.40 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.40 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
19% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.

o1.5 +265
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.50 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
18.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.50 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
18.78% EV

ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o1.5 +220
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.88 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
18.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.88 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
18.75% EV

ANALYSIS

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.. Utilizing Statcast data, Juan Soto ranks in the 98th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .395.

o1.5 +155
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 1.5 Total Bases
2.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
15.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

2.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
15.3% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

o1.5 +105
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 1.5 Total Bases
1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
14.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
14.52% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.. Francisco Lindor has posted a .345 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +155
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.73 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.73 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.. Posting a .311 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Bo Bichette has performed in the 99th percentile.

o1.5 +150
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
0.80 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
12.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.80 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
12.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Ryan Vilade is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan Vilade has had some very good luck given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.. Based on Statcast metrics, Ryan Vilade ranks in the 16th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .187.. Ryan Vilade and his -5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.

u1.5 -180
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

o1.5 +280
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 1.5 Total Bases
0.67 PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
10.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.67 PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
10.99% EV

ANALYSIS

Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jorge Mateo ranks in the 3rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .188.

u1.5 -240
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 1.5 Total Bases
1.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
10.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
10.55% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 +120
BetRivers logo
TOTAL BASES
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 +165
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 1.5 Total Bases
0.77 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
10.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.77 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
10.1% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jared Young today.. Jared Young has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.. Jared Young has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 85.6-mph over the past 7 days.

u1.5 -220
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 1.5 Total Bases
1.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Taylor Walls has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° mark last season.. Taylor Walls's launch angle of late (32° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

o1.5 +290
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.42 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.42 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. The 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the majors are found in Tropicana Field.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Jonny DeLuca will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Jonny DeLuca will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.. Jonny DeLuca has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 86.2-mph.

o1.5 +200
BetRivers logo
TOTAL BASES
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 1.5 Total Bases
0.75 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
7.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.75 PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
7.54% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.5-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.9-mph.. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.4% to 6.7%.

u1.5 -260
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Jonathan Aranda has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

o1.5 +180
BetRivers logo
TOTAL BASES
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 1.5 Total Bases
0.87 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
3.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.87 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
3.56% EV

ANALYSIS

A.J. Ewing is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. A.J. Ewing will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.. Over the last 14 days, A.J. Ewing's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.

u1.5 -260
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL BASES
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.22 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.22 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.48% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, falling from 10.8% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

u1.5 -190
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
15.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
15.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.

o0.5 +700
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.14 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
12.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.14 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
12.31% EV

ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o0.5 +850
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
11.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
11.85% EV

ANALYSIS

Taylor Walls has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° mark last season.. Taylor Walls's launch angle of late (32° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

o0.5 +1500
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
10.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
10.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

o0.5 +1050
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
8.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
8.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor's launch angle of late (22.4° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit higher than his 19.1° seasonal figure.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.

o0.5 +600
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
4.22% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
4.22% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Jonathan Aranda has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

o0.5 +900
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.26 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
3.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.26 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
3.76% EV

ANALYSIS

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.

o0.5 +425
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.. By putting up a .356 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Bo Bichette is ranked in the 86th percentile for offensive skills.

o0.5 +850
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV

ANALYSIS

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Carson Benge ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Carson Benge's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 16.8% on the season to 25.8% in the last two weeks.

o0.5 +850
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.28 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-1.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.28 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-1.35% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o0.5 +310
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.13 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.13 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Ryan Vilade is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan Vilade has had some very good luck given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.. Ryan Vilade and his -5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.

u0.5 -752
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.01% EV

ANALYSIS

A.J. Ewing is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. A.J. Ewing will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.. Over the last 14 days, A.J. Ewing's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, A.J. Ewing's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 91.8 mph to 83.3 mph.

u0.5 -1695
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.46% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jared Young today.. Jared Young has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.. Jared Young has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 85.6-mph over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jared Young's true offensive ability to be a .305, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .032 disparity between that figure and his actual .337 wOBA.

u0.5 -1099
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.55% EV

ANALYSIS

Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Compared to his seasonal angle of 12.9°, Jorge Mateo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (9°) in the past 14 days.

u0.5 -1299
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.62% EV

ANALYSIS

The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Yandy Diaz's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 93-mph mark last year has fallen off to 90.7-mph.. Compared to his seasonal angle of 6°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.5°) over the last 14 days.. Despite posting a .362 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yandy Diaz has had positive variance on his side given the .021 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .341.

u0.5 -649
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nick Fortes logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
N. Fortes (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.08 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.96% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Nick Fortes ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.5-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.9-mph.. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.4% to 6.7%.

u0.5 -2000
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.72% EV

ANALYSIS

Jonny DeLuca is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. The 9th-deepest CF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. In the past two weeks, Jonny DeLuca's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.4%.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jonny DeLuca has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

u0.5 -1299
bet365 logo
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
Sean Manaea logo
New York Mets logo
S. Manaea (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Sean Manaea logo
New York Mets logo
S. Manaea (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

PROJECTION

4.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.45% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 20.2% underlying K%.. It is anticipated that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Ben May) calling pitches in this game.. Because of his large platoon split, Sean Manaea will have a disadvantage facing 6 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side today.. Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Sean Manaea in today's matchup.. Sean Manaea's slider usage has fallen by 5.1% from last season to this one (34.9% to 29.8%) .

u4.5 -110
BetMGM logo
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
Freddy Peralta logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
F. Peralta (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.84 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-2.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Freddy Peralta logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
F. Peralta (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

PROJECTION

4.84 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-2.82% EV

ANALYSIS

It is anticipated that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Ben May) calling pitches in this game.. With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Freddy Peralta encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Freddy Peralta has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 52.5% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

u4.5 +105
BetMGM logo
TOTAL RBIS
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
20.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
20.31% EV

ANALYSIS

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.

o0.5 +210
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.86 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
18.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.86 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
18.41% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

o0.5 +140
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.

o0.5 +280
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.53 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
17.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jonny DeLuca logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. DeLuca (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.53 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
17.39% EV

ANALYSIS

Jonny DeLuca has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. The 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the majors are found in Tropicana Field.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Jonny DeLuca will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Jonny DeLuca will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

o0.5 +230
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
16.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
16.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.. Francisco Lindor has posted a .345 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +240
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.46 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.46 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Jonathan Aranda has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Jonathan Aranda has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 93.3-mph in the past two weeks.

o0.5 +260
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.56 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.56 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.04% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.

o0.5 +201
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.71% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

o0.5 +330
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.47 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.47 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o0.5 +240
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.35 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.35 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.44% EV

ANALYSIS

Taylor Walls has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° mark last season.. Taylor Walls's launch angle of late (32° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

o0.5 +330
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o0.5 +204
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

o0.5 +187
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
8.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
8.54% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan Vilade is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Ryan Vilade will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Manaea has a large platoon split.. Ryan Vilade will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Ryan Vilade's quickness has gotten better this year. His 27.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.54 ft/sec now.. Checking in at the 92nd percentile, the hardest ball Ryan Vilade has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.6 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

o0.5 +200
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
7.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
7.53% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his BABIP talent, A.J. Ewing is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, A.J. Ewing will have an edge in today's game.. A.J. Ewing has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates A.J. Ewing's true offensive talent to be a .312, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .022 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .290 wOBA.

o0.5 +275
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
6.14% EV

ANALYSIS

Jared Young is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Jared Young will have the upper hand today.. Jared Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. With a 29.500 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jared Young grades out in the 91st percentile for power.

o0.5 +222
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.68% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Jorge Mateo will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Manaea in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Manaea has a large platoon split.. Jorge Mateo will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. In the past 7 days, Jorge Mateo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.6-mph over the course of the season to 92.8-mph of late.. Over the last 7 days, Jorge Mateo's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.2%.

o0.5 +233
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.30 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.30 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, falling from 10.8% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

u0.5 -320
theScore Bet logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.74 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
17.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Alvarez logo
New York Mets logo
F. Alvarez (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.74 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
17.46% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Ranking in the 75th percentile, Francisco Alvarez sits with a .315 BABIP this year.

o1.5 +170
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.39 PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
16.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Juan Soto logo
New York Mets logo
J. Soto (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.39 PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
16.87% EV

ANALYSIS

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 18%.. Utilizing Statcast data, Juan Soto ranks in the 98th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .395.

o1.5 +100
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.71 PROJECTION
+1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.74% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Junior Caminero logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Caminero (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.71 PROJECTION
+1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.74% EV

ANALYSIS

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Junior Caminero will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 -133
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.82 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
13.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Marcus Semien logo
New York Mets logo
M. Semien (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.82 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
13.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcus Semien's true offensive ability to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .277 wOBA.

o1.5 +135
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.20 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
11.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bo Bichette logo
New York Mets logo
B. Bichette (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.20 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
11.94% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bo Bichette's true offensive ability to be a .326, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.

o1.5 -107
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.46 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
11.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brett Baty logo
New York Mets logo
B. Baty (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.46 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
11.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Brett Baty will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brett Baty's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

o1.5 +183
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.12 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
10.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Francisco Lindor logo
New York Mets logo
F. Lindor (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.12 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
10.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Francisco Lindor has been unlucky this year, notching a .323 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .018 discrepancy.

o1.5 -105
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.46 PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Yandy Diaz logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Y. Diaz (DH) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.46 PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.18% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Because of Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 -145
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.94 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Carson Benge logo
New York Mets logo
C. Benge (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.94 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

o1.5 +102
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
8.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jonathan Aranda logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Aranda (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
8.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Jonathan Aranda has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

o1.5 +102
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.64 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
7.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
A.J. Ewing logo
New York Mets logo
A. Ewing (CF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.64 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
7.66% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his BABIP talent, A.J. Ewing is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, A.J. Ewing will have an edge in today's game.. A.J. Ewing has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates A.J. Ewing's true offensive talent to be a .312, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .022 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .290 wOBA.

o1.5 +140
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.77 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
6.34% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan Vilade logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
R. Vilade (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.77 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
6.34% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan Vilade is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Ryan Vilade will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Manaea has a large platoon split.. Ryan Vilade will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Ryan Vilade's quickness has gotten better this year. His 27.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.54 ft/sec now.

o1.5 +115
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.41 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
5.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Taylor Walls logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
T. Walls (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.41 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
5.45% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Taylor Walls has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° mark last season.. Taylor Walls's launch angle of late (32° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

o1.5 +165
FanDuel logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.63 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Young logo
New York Mets logo
J. Young (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.63 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Jared Young is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the best venue in baseball for lefty home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Jared Young will have the upper hand today.. Jared Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. With a 29.500 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jared Young grades out in the 91st percentile for power.

o1.5 +127
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-2.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Chandler Simpson logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
C. Simpson (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-2.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Given Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.

u1.5 -114
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jorge Mateo logo
Tampa Bay Rays logo
J. Mateo (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.43 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. In the last week, Jorge Mateo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jorge Mateo ranks in the 3rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .188.

u1.5 -155
BetMGM logo

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