Milwaukee Brewers Picks
1st in National League Central
(103 - 59)
Next Game
TB @ MIL Picks
MLB PicksNick Martinez’s plan against left-handed hitters maps directly to Bauers’ strengths. He throws changeups 29% of the time in that split, followed by sinkers at 26% and cutters at 22%. Bauers produced a .500 xSLG against changeups, .494 against sinkers and .465 against cutters.
Mitchell’s path runs through Martinez’s cutter. The Tampa Bay right-hander throws it 22% of the time to left-handed hitters, and opponents generated a .403 xSLG against it. Mitchell did substantially more damage to that pitch, posting a .797 xSLG, .839 actual slugging percentage and 59.1% hard-hit rate against cutters this season.
Jacob Misiorowski’s four-seamer is one of baseball’s least inviting pitches, but it will account for nearly two-thirds of this matchup and gives Caminero a defined hunting zone. The third baseman generated a .652 xSLG and 62.2% hard-hit rate against four-seamers this season, with a 116.9-mph max exit velocity showing he does not need to cheat for triple digits.
Martinez pitched to contact during the regular season with a career-low 15.1% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate, while opposing hitters made contact on 90.7% of his pitches in the strike zone. His postseason 4.33 xERA and 4.11 xFIP are also well above his 3.00 ERA across nine innings, and he’s recorded a 4.28 xERA and 4.14 xERA across 12 career appearances – seven starts – against the Brewers. With the familiarity the Milwaukee lineup has against Martinez, I recommend this prop up to 59%.
This is trading at 49%, and I have it priced at 55%. The Rays' starting rotation has posted a 1.98 ERA so far in the playoffs, a Top-10 postseason mark since 1969. Nick Martinez has allowed just three runs over nine innings in two starts, and the rested Rays bullpen should have an advantage earlier in the series before the Brewers get more looks at its arms. Jacob Misiorowski will do what he does, and even if he doesn't record 15 outs, he'll hand things over to Milwaukee's biggest edge: its bullpen. Through 40+ postseason innings, the Brewers' pen is pitching to a 1.33 ERA.
The Tampa Bay Rays are trading as 38% underdogs in Game 1 of the World Series, and I'll hit the button at that price, as I make their chances closer to 40%. It's a small edge, but that's typical for a World Series matchup that will attract plenty of attention from traders. Jacob Misiorowski hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in either of his last two starts, not because he's been hit hard, but because he's reached the 90-pitch mark. The Rays are well equipped to grind out at-bats and avoid being intimidated by the consistent 100-plus mph readings on the radar gun.
This Chourio prop is recommended to 58% because he piled up six hits, two runs and seven RBI across eight postseason games despite hitting just .171 with a .239 wOBA. His underlying .389 xwOBA and .271 xISO also have my attention after he posted respective .343 and .269 marks against Tampa Bay starter Nick Martinez across 12 plate appearances.
Misiorowski to record 16 or more outs is in play to 57%. The Milwaukee ace will pitch Game 1 on 11 days rest, and he's held opposing batters to a pedestrian .248 wOBA and .052 ISO across 20 1/3 postseason innings, while also limiting hitters to a league-low .226 xwOBA during the regular season. While Brewers manager Pat Murphy was incredibly cautious with Misiorowski’s workload down the stretch and to this point of the postseason, there's no reason to rein him in now.
Jackson Chourio is my top choice to leave the ballpark.
He leads all players in this series with 12 hard hit balls vs. right-handed pitching, and he’s near the top of the leaderboard with a .456 xSLG.
He also hits southpaws very well, which makes it almost impossible to gameplan around him.
There’s hot, and there’s Jackson Chourio at home. He has cleared 1.5 H+R+R in 15 of the last 17 games in Milwaukee, averaging 3.7 H+R+R during that stretch.
Drew Rasmussen finished in the 91st percentile in BA against right-handed hitters this year but sits in the 64th percentile over the last six starts.
Chourio is consistently hitting the ball hard, and his .291 xBA vs. righties in the playoffs is a good sign results will follow.
I like the Milwaukee Brewers to take the series opener up to 63%.
The Tampa Bay Rays were simply not the same team on the road during the regular season, posting a 43-38 record.
Their numbers on the road leave plenty to be desired in the playoffs as well. The sample is much smaller, of course, but they have managed just a .228 xwOBA on the road vs. righties.
That’s not ideal walking into a matchup with Jacob Misiorowski, who allowed two runs or fewer in 16 of 18 home starts this season.
Caminero gets a velocity test but will see the pitch he damages most, while Bauers gets a softer, shape-heavy arsenal and the platoon advantage. Both occupy premium lineup spots, giving each a strong chance at four plate appearances.
I’m combining the Brewers on the moneyline with Jackson Chourio and Junior Caminero to record hits.
I’ve isolated these stars in part due to their ability to hit pitchers of both handedness effectively.
It certainly helps that Chourio owns a .314 xBA during the playoffs and Caminero posted a 15% barrel rate in the postseason to date. I want to follow the hard contact.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusTB @ MIL · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TOTAL
|
|||||||
|
SPREAD
MIL
-1.5 spread
-1.17
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
Y. Diaz
(DH)
0.5 Total Hits
1.01
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
2.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. Chourio
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
1.13
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
0.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
G. Mitchell
(CF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.79
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
0.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
C. Simpson
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.94
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-0.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
V. Mesa Jr.
(RF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.64
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-0.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
C. Pratt
(SS)
0.5 Total Hits
0.91
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. Aranda
(1B)
0.5 Total Hits
0.72
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-1.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. Bauers
(1B)
0.5 Total Hits
0.81
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-2.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
B. Williamson
(2B)
0.5 Total Hits
0.73
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-2.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
T. Walls
(SS)
0.5 Total Hits
0.51
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-3.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
S. Frelick
(RF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.80
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-3.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
W. Contreras
(C)
0.5 Total Hits
1.00
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-4.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. DeLuca
(RF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.71
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
L. Hicks
(C)
0.5 Total Hits
0.73
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
C. Yelich
(DH)
0.5 Total Hits
0.93
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
B. Turang
(2B)
0.5 Total Hits
0.91
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-6.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
J. Bauers
(1B)
1.5 Total Bases
1.56
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
15.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
J. Chourio
(LF)
1.5 Total Bases
1.99
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
14.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
C. Yelich
(DH)
1.5 Total Bases
1.53
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
14.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
W. Contreras
(C)
1.5 Total Bases
1.71
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
J. Aranda
(1B)
1.5 Total Bases
1.31
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
Y. Diaz
(DH)
1.5 Total Bases
1.46
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
8.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
G. Mitchell
(CF)
1.5 Total Bases
0.78
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
7.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
V. Mesa Jr.
(RF)
1.5 Total Bases
1.19
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
6.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
L. Hicks
(C)
1.5 Total Bases
1.15
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
6.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
J. DeLuca
(RF)
1.5 Total Bases
0.72
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
5.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
C. Pratt
(SS)
1.5 Total Bases
0.90
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
-0.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
T. Walls
(SS)
1.5 Total Bases
0.79
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
-4.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
B. Turang
(2B)
1.5 Total Bases
0.91
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
C. Yelich
(DH)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.13
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
13.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
J. Chourio
(LF)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.20
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
11.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
J. Aranda
(1B)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.13
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
B. Turang
(2B)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.13
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
V. Mesa Jr.
(RF)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.13
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
J. Bauers
(1B)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.19
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
6.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
G. Mitchell
(CF)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
B. Williamson
(2B)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.02
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
-3.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
W. Contreras
(C)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.15
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-8.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
C. Simpson
(LF)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.01
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
N. Martinez
(SP)
3.5 Strikeouts Thrown
3.33
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
2.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
J. Misiorowski
(SP)
6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
6.87
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
W. Contreras
(C)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.63
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
21.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
L. Hicks
(C)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.41
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
19.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. Aranda
(1B)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.41
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
17.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. Bauers
(1B)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.56
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
17.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
C. Yelich
(DH)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.55
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
16.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. Chourio
(LF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.58
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
15.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
T. Walls
(SS)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.24
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
14.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
B. Turang
(2B)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.49
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
11.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
V. Mesa Jr.
(RF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.38
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
Y. Diaz
(DH)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.35
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
6.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. DeLuca
(RF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.31
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
G. Mitchell
(CF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.41
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
C. Simpson
(LF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.31
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
C. Pratt
(SS)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.35
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
1.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
B. Williamson
(2B)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.22
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-7.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
J. Aranda
(1B)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.64
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
14.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
W. Contreras
(C)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.25
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
13.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
J. Bauers
(1B)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.00
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
13.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
J. Chourio
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.45
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
12.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
C. Yelich
(DH)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.00
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
11.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
B. Turang
(2B)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.04
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
9.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
L. Hicks
(C)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.46
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
8.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
V. Mesa Jr.
(RF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.37
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
6.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Y. Diaz
(DH)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.85
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
4.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
C. Pratt
(SS)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.61
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
0.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
J. DeLuca
(RF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.33
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-2.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
C. Simpson
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.58
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
T. Walls
(SS)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.02
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
-5.07%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low