Kochanowicz’ underlying profile screams regression, and the Yankees tendency to hit the ball hard and put it in the air should serve them well in a hitter-friendly ballpark with warm weather and the wind blowing out.
Kochanowicz has allowed a .204 average on balls put in play. That is unsustainably low and well below the near .300 BABIP allowed over 175 innings of work the two seasons prior. Regression is coming, and the Yankees (3rd in fly ball rate, 7th in hard hit rate) are a good team to force the issue.
Jo Adell is red hot right now, with six hits over his last three games, including a home run at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday against Ryan Weathers. On Wednesday, I’m riding the hot bat and looking for Adell to go back-to-back with another homer, especially at this price. Adell is listed at +424 to hit a home run, but with temperatures in the low 80s and the wind blowing out to left-center field at 9 mph, I make the fair price closer to +305. Adell handles velocity well—he’s more vulnerable to high-level breaking pitches that move off his barrel. Fortunately for him, Luis Gil relies heavily on a fastball that doesn’t have much run, which sets up well for Adell in this matchup.