MONEYLINE
AZ
+135 moneyline
AZ
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-3.45%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
AZ
+135 moneyline
Close Modal
AZ
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-3.45%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
+140
TOTAL
9.17
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
1.35%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
9.17
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
1.35%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
u8.5
+100
SPREAD
AZ
+1.5 spread
0.57
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
-1.23%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
AZ
+1.5 spread
Close Modal
0.57
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
-1.23%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
+1.5
-155
TOTAL HITS
0.77
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
11.72%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.77
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
11.72%
EV
Jeremiah Jackson is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.. Merrill Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremiah Jackson in today's game.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Jeremiah Jackson's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 90.8-mph figure last season has decreased to 87.7-mph.. Jeremiah Jackson's launch angle this season (-0.4°) is quite a bit lower than his 11.7° angle last season.
u0.5
+146
TOTAL HITS
0.74
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
11.26%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.74
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
11.26%
EV
Dylan Beavers has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 39% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Dylan Beavers is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of the day).. Dylan Beavers's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 83.2-mph in the past week.. Dylan Beavers's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 3.6% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.
u0.5
+170
TOTAL HITS
0.94
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
9.48%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.94
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
9.48%
EV
Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Pete Alonso will be at a disadvantage today.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Pete Alonso's launch angle this year (8.7°) is considerably lower than his 15.3° mark last year.. Over the last week, Pete Alonso's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.9%.
u0.5
+202
TOTAL HITS
0.89
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.32%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.89
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.32%
EV
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ildemaro Vargas is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.. Ildemaro Vargas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Ildemaro Vargas will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. There has been a decrease in Ildemaro Vargas's average exit velocity this season, from 89.2 mph last year to 85.8 mph now
u0.5
+182
TOTAL HITS
0.90
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.42%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.90
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.42%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Samuel Basallo in the 23rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Samuel Basallo's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased lately; his 93.1-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 87.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.. This year, there has been a decline in Samuel Basallo's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.65 ft/sec last year to 22.65 ft/sec currently.. Samuel Basallo has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs lately, hitting balls between 23° and 34° just 0% of the time in the last week.
u0.5
+177
TOTAL HITS
0.70
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.84%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.70
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.84%
EV
Colton Cowser is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.. When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Colton Cowser has been pulled from the game early 39% of the time.. Colton Cowser has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Over the past week, Colton Cowser's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.5% up to 16.7%.
u0.5
+125
TOTAL HITS
0.96
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
5.38%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.96
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
5.38%
EV
Trevor Rogers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Corbin Carroll today.. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Corbin Carroll in today's game.. Corbin Carroll's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 13.7% to 8.1%.. In the last 7 days, Corbin Carroll's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.1%.
u0.5
+183
TOTAL HITS
0.74
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
4.48%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.74
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
4.48%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, James McCann ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. James McCann is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. 13% of the time that James McCann has started against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.. James McCann will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. This season, there has been a decline in James McCann's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.43 ft/sec last year to 25.1 ft/sec currently.
u0.5
+130
TOTAL HITS
0.88
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.01%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.88
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.01%
EV
Leody Taveras is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.. Leody Taveras has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Over the past 14 days, Leody Taveras has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.. Leody Taveras has notched a .250 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 19th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
u0.5
+163
TOTAL HITS
0.71
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.32%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.71
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.32%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 18th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Coby Mayo is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Coby Mayo will be in a tough position in today's matchup.. Coby Mayo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-deepest LF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
u0.5
+120
TOTAL HITS
0.94
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
2.75%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.94
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
2.75%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 18th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Trevor Rogers. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Geraldo Perdomo in today's game.. Geraldo Perdomo's launch angle recently (1.8° in the past week's worth of games) is a significant dropoff from his 9.7° seasonal angle.. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 20.2% to 6.5%.
u0.5
+175
TOTAL HITS
0.96
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
1.05%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.96
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
1.05%
EV
Nolan Arenado's BABIP skill is projected in the 3rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In today's matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.7% rate (99th percentile).. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nolan Arenado in today's matchup.. Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.5-mph EV last year has lowered to 81.1-mph.. Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 81.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 73.8-mph over the last week.
u0.5
+168
TOTAL HITS
0.90
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-0.34%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.90
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-0.34%
EV
Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Taylor Ward meets a tough challenge in today's game.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Taylor Ward has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 14.1% rate last year has lowered to 0% this season.. Taylor Ward's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 93.1-mph average last year has dropped off to 85.9-mph.. Despite posting a .398 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Taylor Ward has been very fortunate given the .060 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.
u0.5
+155
TOTAL HITS
0.71
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-0.75%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.71
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-0.75%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jorge Barrosa ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jorge Barrosa is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. 15% of the time that Jorge Barrosa has started against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. Jorge Barrosa pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jorge Barrosa will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.
u0.5
+110
TOTAL HITS
1.10
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-2.24%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
1.10
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-2.24%
EV
Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
u0.5
+205
TOTAL HITS
0.78
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-3.19%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
0.78
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-3.19%
EV
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Tim Tawa ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Tim Tawa is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Tim Tawa in today's matchup.. Tim Tawa has been cold of late, compiling a 86.6-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks.. Tim Tawa has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly recently, posting a 1° angle on such balls over the past two weeks.
u0.5
+115
TOTAL HITS
0.93
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.03%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.93
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.03%
EV
Jose Fernandez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Jose Fernandez will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Rogers today.. Jose Fernandez hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
o0.5
-149
TOTAL HITS
1.14
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-6.72%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
1.14
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-6.72%
EV
Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences today.. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ketel Marte today.. Ketel Marte's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 92-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 86.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.. There has been a significant decline in Ketel Marte's launch angle from last year's 15.3° to 7.4° this season.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.261) implies that Ketel Marte has been lucky since the start of last season with his .275 actual batting average.
u0.5
+200
TOTAL HITS
0.72
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-9.46%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.72
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-9.46%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blaze Alexander in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°.. Blaze Alexander has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Blaze Alexander will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Blaze Alexander has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .306 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .325.
o0.5
-125
TOTAL BASES
0.74
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
15.11%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
0.74
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
15.11%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, James McCann ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. James McCann is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. 13% of the time that James McCann has started against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.. James McCann will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. This season, there has been a decline in James McCann's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.43 ft/sec last year to 25.1 ft/sec currently.
u1.5
-170
TOTAL BASES
2.28
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.64%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
2.28
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.64%
EV
Ketel Marte projects as the 12th-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Trevor Rogers.
o1.5
+100
TOTAL BASES
0.74
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.23%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.74
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.23%
EV
Dylan Beavers has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 39% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Dylan Beavers is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of the day).. Dylan Beavers's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 83.2-mph in the past week.. Dylan Beavers's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 3.6% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.
u1.5
-170
TOTAL BASES
1.52
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
12.94%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
1.52
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
12.94%
EV
Jose Fernandez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Jose Fernandez will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Rogers today.. Jose Fernandez hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
o1.5
+190
TOTAL BASES
1.73
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
12.2%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
1.73
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
12.2%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Samuel Basallo in the 79th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Samuel Basallo is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o1.5
+140
TOTAL BASES
0.77
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
11.82%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.77
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
11.82%
EV
Jeremiah Jackson is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.. Merrill Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremiah Jackson in today's game.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Jeremiah Jackson's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 90.8-mph figure last season has decreased to 87.7-mph.. Jeremiah Jackson's launch angle this season (-0.4°) is quite a bit lower than his 11.7° angle last season.
u1.5
-180
TOTAL BASES
0.70
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.02%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.70
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.02%
EV
Colton Cowser is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.. When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Colton Cowser has been pulled from the game early 39% of the time.. Colton Cowser has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Over the past week, Colton Cowser's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.5% up to 16.7%.
u1.5
-230
TOTAL BASES
1.68
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.55%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
1.68
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.55%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Taylor Ward has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.
o1.5
+140
TOTAL BASES
2.18
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
10.38%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
2.18
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
10.38%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o1.5
-110
TOTAL BASES
1.72
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
1.72
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10%
EV
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corbin Carroll ranks as the 18th-best batter in the league.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Corbin Carroll pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game.
o1.5
+132
TOTAL BASES
1.63
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
8.61%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
1.63
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
8.61%
EV
Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an edge in today's game.. Nolan Arenado's launch angle this year (24.3°) is quite a bit better than his 19.1° figure last season.
o1.5
+140
TOTAL BASES
1.89
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.14%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
1.89
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.14%
EV
Pete Alonso projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. In MLB, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o1.5
+105
TOTAL BASES
0.71
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
7.67%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.71
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
7.67%
EV
Coby Mayo is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Coby Mayo will be in a tough position in today's matchup.. Coby Mayo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-deepest LF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Coby Mayo has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 10.3% rate last season has fallen off to 0% this season.
u1.5
-275
TOTAL BASES
0.71
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
6.7%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.71
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
6.7%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jorge Barrosa ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jorge Barrosa is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. 15% of the time that Jorge Barrosa has started against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. Jorge Barrosa pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jorge Barrosa will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.
u1.5
-275
TOTAL BASES
1.26
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
6.7%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
1.26
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
6.7%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Tim Tawa will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Rogers today.. Tim Tawa hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Tim Tawa has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .189 figure is quite a bit lower than his .221 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
o1.5
+215
TOTAL BASES
1.53
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
5.2%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
1.53
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
5.2%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Leody Taveras will hold that advantage today.. In the past 14 days, Leody Taveras's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 60% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.. Leody Taveras has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 8.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 16.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
o1.5
+145
TOTAL BASES
1.38
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.45%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
1.38
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.45%
EV
Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. In MLB, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Geraldo Perdomo grades out in the 85th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .354.
o1.5
+165
TOTAL BASES
1.32
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.41%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
1.32
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.41%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Ildemaro Vargas has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 4% rate last year to 11.1% this year.. Compared to last year, Ildemaro Vargas has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 36% to 66.7% this season.. Ildemaro Vargas has compiled a .293 batting average since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile.
o1.5
+146
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.15
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
12.26%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.15
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
12.26%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 82nd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Coby Mayo will hold that advantage today.
o0.5
+820
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.16
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
11.73%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.16
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
11.73%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Leody Taveras will hold that advantage today.. Leody Taveras has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 8.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 16.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Leody Taveras's 20.8° launch angle (an advanced standard to study a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in the game: 90th percentile.
o0.5
+710
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.30
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.49%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.30
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.49%
EV
Ketel Marte projects as the 12th-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Trevor Rogers.
o0.5
+374
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.16
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
8.05%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.16
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
8.05%
EV
Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an edge in today's game.. Nolan Arenado's launch angle this year (24.3°) is quite a bit better than his 19.1° figure last season.
o0.5
+680
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.22
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
6.38%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.22
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
6.38%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Samuel Basallo in the 79th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Samuel Basallo is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o0.5
+490
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.26
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
6.14%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.26
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
6.14%
EV
Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best home run hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Pete Alonso has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences today.
o0.5
+395
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.26
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.38%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.26
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.38%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o0.5
+371
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.17
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
5.35%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.17
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
5.35%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 87th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Colton Cowser will have an advantage today.. The Arizona Diamondbacks don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game.
o0.5
+610
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.19
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
5.18%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.19
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
5.18%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Taylor Ward has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.
o0.5
+570
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.18
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
4.92%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.18
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
4.92%
EV
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corbin Carroll ranks as the 18th-best batter in the league.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Corbin Carroll pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game.
o0.5
+590
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.12
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
0.02%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
0.12
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
0.02%
EV
Jose Fernandez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Jose Fernandez will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Rogers today.. Jose Fernandez hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
o0.5
+900
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.13
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.5%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.13
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.5%
EV
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Dylan Beavers ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Dylan Beavers is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o0.5
+760
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.08
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-3.55%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.08
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-3.55%
EV
Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. In MLB, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Geraldo Perdomo grades out in the 85th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .354.
o0.5
+1260
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.06
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-3.72%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.06
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-3.72%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jorge Barrosa ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jorge Barrosa is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. 15% of the time that Jorge Barrosa has started against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. Jorge Barrosa pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jorge Barrosa will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.
u0.5
-1695
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.07
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.52%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.07
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.52%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 5th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Ildemaro Vargas is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.. Ildemaro Vargas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Ildemaro Vargas will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. There has been a decrease in Ildemaro Vargas's average exit velocity this season, from 89.2 mph last year to 85.8 mph now
u0.5
-1695
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.11
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.68%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.11
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.68%
EV
Jeremiah Jackson is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.. Merrill Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremiah Jackson in today's game.. Jeremiah Jackson's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 90.8-mph figure last season has decreased to 87.7-mph.. Jeremiah Jackson's launch angle this season (-0.4°) is quite a bit lower than his 11.7° angle last season.. Jeremiah Jackson has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .342 figure is a good deal higher than his .276 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
u0.5
-1000
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.10
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.12%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.10
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.12%
EV
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Tim Tawa ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Tim Tawa is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Tim Tawa in today's matchup.. Tim Tawa has been cold of late, compiling a 86.6-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks.. Tim Tawa has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly recently, posting a 1° angle on such balls over the past two weeks.
u0.5
-1205
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.11
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.32%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.11
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.32%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, James McCann ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. James McCann is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. 13% of the time that James McCann has started against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.. James McCann will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (12.7) provides evidence that James McCann has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 18.9 actual HR/600.
u0.5
-1099
TOTAL HOME RUNS
0.08
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-16.41%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.08
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-16.41%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°.. Blaze Alexander has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Blaze Alexander will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. When it comes to his home runs, Blaze Alexander has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 14.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 20.2.
o0.5
+980
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
4.62
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-5.03%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
4.62
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-5.03%
EV
Trevor Rogers has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile.. Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Trevor Rogers will hold that advantage today.. Trevor Rogers's 2435-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 81st percentile among all SPs.. Trevor Rogers has recorded a 12.4% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season, placing in the 83rd percentile.
o4.5
-102
TOTAL RBIS
0.61
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.76%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.61
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.76%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Samuel Basallo in the 79th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Samuel Basallo is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o0.5
+180
TOTAL RBIS
0.65
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
12.76%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.65
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
12.76%
EV
Ketel Marte projects as the 12th-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Trevor Rogers.
o0.5
+169
TOTAL RBIS
0.55
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.71%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.55
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.71%
EV
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corbin Carroll ranks as the 18th-best batter in the league.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Corbin Carroll pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game.
o0.5
+190
TOTAL RBIS
0.45
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.29%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.45
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.29%
EV
Jose Fernandez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Jose Fernandez will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Rogers today.. Jose Fernandez hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
o0.5
+239
TOTAL RBIS
0.37
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
8.41%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.37
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
8.41%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Tim Tawa will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Rogers today.. Tim Tawa hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Tim Tawa has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .189 figure is quite a bit lower than his .221 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
o0.5
+280
TOTAL RBIS
0.68
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
7.55%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.68
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
7.55%
EV
Pete Alonso projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. In MLB, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o0.5
+135
TOTAL RBIS
0.59
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
7.33%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.59
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
7.33%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o0.5
+156
TOTAL RBIS
0.52
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
6.99%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.52
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
6.99%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Taylor Ward has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.
o0.5
+195
TOTAL RBIS
0.38
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.99%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.38
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.99%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. James McCann will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers today.. James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Since the start of last season, James McCann has an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph, which is one of the best in MLB at the 93rd percentile.
o0.5
+247
TOTAL RBIS
0.56
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.88%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.56
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.88%
EV
Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an edge in today's game.. Nolan Arenado's launch angle this year (24.3°) is quite a bit better than his 19.1° figure last season.
o0.5
+160
TOTAL RBIS
0.45
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.73%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.45
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.73%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Leody Taveras will hold that advantage today.. In the past 14 days, Leody Taveras's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 60% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.. Leody Taveras has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 8.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 16.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
o0.5
+200
TOTAL RBIS
0.44
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.63%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.44
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.63%
EV
Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. In MLB, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Geraldo Perdomo grades out in the 85th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .354.
o0.5
+205
TOTAL RBIS
0.41
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
2.92%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.41
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
2.92%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 82nd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Coby Mayo will hold that advantage today.
o0.5
+213
TOTAL RBIS
0.44
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-0.76%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.44
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-0.76%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Colton Cowser will have an advantage today.. The Arizona Diamondbacks don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game.
o0.5
+190
TOTAL RBIS
0.35
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.11%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.35
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.11%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 5th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Ildemaro Vargas is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.. Ildemaro Vargas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Ildemaro Vargas will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. There has been a decrease in Ildemaro Vargas's average exit velocity this season, from 89.2 mph last year to 85.8 mph now
u0.5
-235
TOTAL RBIS
0.40
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.86%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.40
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.86%
EV
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Dylan Beavers ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Dylan Beavers is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.
o0.5
+202
TOTAL RBIS
0.35
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.7%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.35
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.7%
EV
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Jeremiah Jackson has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jeremiah Jackson will hold that advantage today.. Jeremiah Jackson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 102.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 88.5-mph.
o0.5
+225
TOTAL RBIS
0.29
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.84%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
0.29
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.84%
EV
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jorge Barrosa ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jorge Barrosa is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. 15% of the time that Jorge Barrosa has started against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. Jorge Barrosa pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jorge Barrosa will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.
u0.5
-380
TOTAL RBIS
0.30
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-12.66%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.30
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-12.66%
EV
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blaze Alexander in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°.. Blaze Alexander has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Blaze Alexander will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. When it comes to his home runs, Blaze Alexander has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 14.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 20.2.
o0.5
+240