Arizona Diamondbacks

2nd in National League West (55 - 51)

Next Game

Mon, Jul 27 18:40 ET

AZ @ PIT Picks

MLB Picks
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll logo Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Corbin Carroll is in a great spot Monday against Mitch Keller. The Diamondbacks star owns an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 90.4% of Keller's pitch mix, one of the highest arsenal coverage marks on the slate. Even though the results have not been there recently, Carroll is still producing elite quality of contact with a 58% hard hit rate and 21.1% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching. Keller has also struggled against lefties, allowing plenty of hard contact and loud damage. I think Carroll is overdue for a breakout and a strong extra base hit opportunity tonight.

Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ (+101)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
Joe Osborne image
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

Merrill Kelly has been strong this month, giving up two earned runs or fewer in all four of his July starts. The Pirates, meanwhile, can't get anything going at the plate, ranking 29th in OPS over the past week. The Diamondbacks have been the complete opposite, sitting second in OPS during that stretch, making this a tough matchup for Mitch Keller, who has struggled badly at home with a 5.68 ERA.

Total
Arizona Diamondbacks logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo o9.0 (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 hours ago
Jason Wilson image
Jason Wilson
Publishing Editor

I don't trust either starter even a lick, and considering the Pirates have scored the most runs in baseball in the last 30 days and the Diamondbacks are seventh on that list, this has the makings of a night to forget for Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller.

3 LEG PARLAY
Arizona Diamondbacks logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo
o9.0
Total
Gabriel Moreno profile picture
Gabriel Moreno o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
NG
Nick Gonzales o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 5 hours ago
Robert Criscola image
Robert Criscola
Publishing Editor

Tonight's starting pitching matchup makes the Over an automatic play. Merrill Kelly enters with a first percentile xERA (7.25), and Mitch Keller isn't much better in the 13th (5.23). Gabriel Moreno is batting .325 vs. righties this season, and .409 since the All-Star break. Nick Gonzalez is also on a roll since the second half began, batting .359. Play to +525.

Total Hits
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Jacob Gonzalez u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Gonzalez in the 14th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Jacob Gonzalez is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.. Jacob Gonzalez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 24% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.
Total Bases
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.27
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.
Total Bases
Nolan Arenado logo
Nolan Arenado o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe logo
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.02
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Ketel Marte logo
Ketel Marte o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.04
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases
Henry Davis logo
Henry Davis o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.37
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.
Total Bases
Max Kepler logo
Max Kepler o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Esmerlyn Valdez has big-time HR ability (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. Esmerlyn Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.
Total Bases
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Adrian Del Castillo o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.48
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller today.. Adrian Del Castillo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.. Over the past 7 days, Adrian Del Castillo's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%.
Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds logo
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+117)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Moneyline

65% picking Pittsburgh

35%
65%

Total PicksAZ 159, PIT 291

Moneyline
AZ
PIT
Moneyline
Total

64% picking Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over

64%
36%

Total PicksAZ 201, PIT 115

Total
Over
Under

AZ @ PIT · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
MONEYLINE
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
AZ +101 moneyline
AZ PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Polymarket
Best Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
AZ +101 moneyline

PROJECTION

AZ PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.69% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+105
Polymarket logo
TOTAL
Arizona Diamondbacks logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Over 9.5 Total
10.43 PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Polymarket
Best Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Over 9.5 Total

PROJECTION

10.43 PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.26% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o9.5 +105
Polymarket logo
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
AZ -1.5 spread
-0.45 PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
4.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Polymarket
Best Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
AZ -1.5 spread

PROJECTION

-0.45 PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
4.89% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-1.5 +165
Polymarket logo
TOTAL HITS
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Gonzalez in the 14th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Jacob Gonzalez is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.. Jacob Gonzalez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 24% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.

u0.5 +160
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
3.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
3.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Callihan in the 11th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Tyler Callihan is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. Tyler Callihan has been pulled from the game early 27% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.

u0.5 +115
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
2.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
2.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Tyler Locklear has been hot in recent games, notching a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past week.. Tyler Locklear has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 7 days — 111.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

o0.5 -140
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total Hits
1.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.05% EV

ANALYSIS

Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Brandon Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.3% down to 6.7%.. In the past 14 days, Brandon Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 95.5 mph to 92.9 mph.

u0.5 +192
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.06 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
0.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.06 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
0.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Today, Bryan Reynolds is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (83rd percentile).. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.. In the past week, Bryan Reynolds's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 94.8 mph to 74.3 mph.. Over the last week, Bryan Reynolds's 20% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 44.5%.. Despite posting a .365 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryan Reynolds has experienced some positive variance given the .026 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339.

u0.5 +202
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.86 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.86 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.8% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Over the last 7 days, Tim Tawa's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 12.5%.. Tim Tawa has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 94.2-mph in the past 14 days.. In the past week's worth of games, Tim Tawa's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.2%.

o0.5 -135
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total Hits
1.05 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-2.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.05 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-2.28% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 21st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. From last season to this one, Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 20.2% to 14.1%.. Geraldo Perdomo has been cold of late, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) over the last 14 days.

u0.5 +185
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3% EV

ANALYSIS

Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Esmerlyn Valdez will be in a tough position in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.. In the last two weeks, Esmerlyn Valdez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 28.4% down to 16.7%.. Despite posting a .437 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Esmerlyn Valdez has been very fortunate given the .105 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

u0.5 +155
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total Hits
0.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adrian Del Castillo in the 19th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Adrian Del Castillo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.. Adrian Del Castillo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 26% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Adrian Del Castillo will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

u0.5 +125
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.99 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.99 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o0.5 -165
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total Hits
1.18 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.18 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-5% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Moreno's 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

o0.5 -240
FanDuel logo
TOTAL HITS
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.54% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 7th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Max Kepler has been pulled from the game early 22% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Max Kepler in today's matchup.. Max Kepler has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 5% in the last 14 days.

u0.5 +153
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total Hits
1.12 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-6.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.12 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-6.48% EV

ANALYSIS

Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Ketel Marte will bat from his bad side against Mitch Keller today.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ketel Marte in today's game.. In the past two weeks, Ketel Marte's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 4%.. Ketel Marte's launch angle this season (12.2°) is significantly lower than his 15.3° mark last year.

u0.5 +195
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.19 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-7.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.19 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-7.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

o0.5 -270
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-7.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-7.28% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.

o0.5 -227
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL HITS
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total Hits
0.76 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-7.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.76 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-7.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

o0.5 -127
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-11.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-11.62% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.

o0.5 -231
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
2.27 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
16.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

2.27 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
16.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

o1.5 +100
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.57 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
16.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.57 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
16.06% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o1.5 +185
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 1.5 Total Bases
2.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
13.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

2.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
13.02% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

o1.5 +110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 1.5 Total Bases
2.04 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

2.04 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 1.5 Total Bases
1.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
11.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
11.98% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

o1.5 +210
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +140
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
10.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
10.75% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Esmerlyn Valdez has big-time HR ability (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. Esmerlyn Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.

o1.5 +137
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 1.5 Total Bases
1.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.37% EV

ANALYSIS

Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller today.. Adrian Del Castillo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.. Over the past 7 days, Adrian Del Castillo's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%.

o1.5 +170
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

o1.5 +117
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.75 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.75 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

o1.5 +128
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 1.5 Total Bases
1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
7.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
7.5% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Moreno's 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.. Gabriel Moreno has notched a .289 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (48.9% rate this year).

o1.5 +121
Caesars logo
TOTAL BASES
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.74% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.74% EV

ANALYSIS

Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. There has been a significant improvement in Jake Mangum's launch angle from last year's 0° to 3.1° this season.. Compared to his seasonal average of 3.1°, Jake Mangum has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 7.2° angle over the last two weeks.

o1.5 +140
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 1.5 Total Bases
1.58 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.58 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Geraldo Perdomo will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Geraldo Perdomo's launch angle of late (20.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 14.3° seasonal figure.. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Geraldo Perdomo is positioned in the 85th percentile for offensive skills.. Geraldo Perdomo has put up a .278 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +130
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
0.86 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
1.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.86 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
1.51% EV

ANALYSIS

Tim Tawa is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.. The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Mitch Keller will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tim Tawa in today's matchup.. In today's game, Tim Tawa is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.2% rate (77th percentile).

u1.5 -290
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 1.5 Total Bases
0.95 PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
0.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.95 PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
0.36% EV

ANALYSIS

Tyler Locklear is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Tyler Locklear will be at a disadvantage today.

u1.5 -260
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.41 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.41 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.11% EV

ANALYSIS

Jacob Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's matchup.. Jacob Gonzalez will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Jacob Gonzalez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.8% up to 9.1%.. Jacob Gonzalez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.9-mph figure.

o1.5 +150
BetMGM logo
TOTAL BASES
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
0.72 PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.72 PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Tyler Callihan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Callihan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

o1.5 +185
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.25 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
4.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.25 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
4.77% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

o0.5 +398
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.21 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
1.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.21 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
1.07% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +425
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.13 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.13 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.4% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o0.5 +700
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

o0.5 +505
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.09 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3.74% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.09 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3.74% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. From last season to this one, Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 20.2% to 14.1%.

u0.5 -1099
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.03 PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.93% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.03 PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.93% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. The switch-hitting Jake Mangum will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Merrill Kelly. Jake Mangum has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest LF fences today.. Jake Mangum's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.4-mph EV last year has dropped off to 84.7-mph.

u0.5 -4000
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-4.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-4.35% EV

ANALYSIS

Tyler Locklear has been hot in recent games, notching a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past week.. Tyler Locklear has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 7 days — 111.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

o0.5 +750
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.44% EV

ANALYSIS

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +500
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.20 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.20 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.91% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Esmerlyn Valdez will be in a tough position in today's game.. In the last two weeks, Esmerlyn Valdez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 28.4% down to 16.7%.

u0.5 -450
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Gabriel Moreno will have a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gabriel Moreno today.

u0.5 -1299
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Jacob Gonzalez is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.. Jacob Gonzalez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 24% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.

u0.5 -1099
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.16 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.16 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Today, Bryan Reynolds is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (83rd percentile).. In the past week, Bryan Reynolds's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 94.8 mph to 74.3 mph.. In the past 7 days, Bryan Reynolds's 10% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.4%.

u0.5 -752
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.15 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.15 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Adrian Del Castillo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.. Adrian Del Castillo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 26% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.

u0.5 -901
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.54% EV

ANALYSIS

Tim Tawa is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.. The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Mitch Keller will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tim Tawa in today's matchup.. In today's game, Tim Tawa is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.2% rate (77th percentile).

u0.5 -1408
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.24 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.24 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.58% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Brandon Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.3% down to 6.7%.. In the past 14 days, Brandon Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 95.5 mph to 92.9 mph.

u0.5 -450
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.15 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-10.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.15 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-10.85% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Henry Davis is in the 78th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 24.400.

o0.5 +600
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-19.97% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-19.97% EV

ANALYSIS

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Tyler Callihan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Callihan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

o0.5 +650
BetMGM logo
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
Merrill Kelly logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kelly (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.35 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-4.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Merrill Kelly logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kelly (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

PROJECTION

4.35 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-4.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.. PNC Park ranks as the #26 venue in MLB for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Merrill Kelly has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Merrill Kelly today.

u4.5 -130
bet365 logo
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
Mitch Keller logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
M. Keller (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Mitch Keller logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
M. Keller (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

PROJECTION

4.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.39% EV

ANALYSIS

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Mitch Keller will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Considering the 0.81 deviation between Mitch Keller's 6.90 K/9 and his 7.71 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to positively regress going forward.

o3.5 -161
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL RBIS
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
17.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
17.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Tyler Locklear has been hot in recent games, notching a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past week.. Tyler Locklear has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 7 days — 111.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.. In the last 7 days, Tyler Locklear's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 61.5% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

o0.5 +255
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.42 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.42 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.18% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Over the last 7 days, Tim Tawa's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 12.5%.. Tim Tawa has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 94.2-mph in the past 14 days.. In the past week's worth of games, Tim Tawa's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.2%.

o0.5 +287
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.06% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

o0.5 +158
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.03% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

o0.5 +166
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL RBIS
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.43% EV

ANALYSIS

Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller today.. Adrian Del Castillo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.. Over the past 7 days, Adrian Del Castillo's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%.

o0.5 +220
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.64 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.64 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

o0.5 +178
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.78 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
13.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.78 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
13.35% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +134
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL RBIS
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
12.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
12.68% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his home run skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Esmerlyn Valdez has big-time HR ability (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. Esmerlyn Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.

o0.5 +154
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.47 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.47 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.16% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

o0.5 +234
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.51 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
11.34% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.51 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
11.34% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o0.5 +210
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.59 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
11.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.59 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
11.26% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

o0.5 +169
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.61 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.61 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.96% EV

ANALYSIS

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +165
BetMGM logo
TOTAL RBIS
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Geraldo Perdomo will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Geraldo Perdomo's launch angle of late (20.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 14.3° seasonal figure.. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Geraldo Perdomo is positioned in the 85th percentile for offensive skills.. Geraldo Perdomo has put up a .278 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +213
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.58 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.58 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.77% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Moreno's 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.. Gabriel Moreno has notched a .289 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (48.9% rate this year).

o0.5 +174
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.45 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.45 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.88% EV

ANALYSIS

Jacob Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's matchup.. Jacob Gonzalez will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Jacob Gonzalez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.8% up to 9.1%.. Jacob Gonzalez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.9-mph figure.

o0.5 +185
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.26% EV

ANALYSIS

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Tyler Callihan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Callihan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

o0.5 +230
BetMGM logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.33 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-0% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.33 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-0% EV

ANALYSIS

Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. There has been a significant improvement in Jake Mangum's launch angle from last year's 0° to 3.1° this season.. Compared to his seasonal average of 3.1°, Jake Mangum has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 7.2° angle over the last two weeks.

o0.5 +267
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.74 PROJECTION
+1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.74 PROJECTION
+1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

o1.5 -143
Kalshi Sports logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.62 PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.62 PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.6% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 -137
Kalshi Sports logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.11% EV

ANALYSIS

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +100
BetMGM logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.01 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
13.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.01 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
13.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o1.5 +115
BetMGM logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.90 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
12.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.90 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
12.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Tyler Locklear has been hot in recent games, notching a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past week.. Tyler Locklear has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 7 days — 111.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.. In the last 7 days, Tyler Locklear's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 61.5% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

o1.5 +121
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.83 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.83 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller today.. Adrian Del Castillo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.. Over the past 7 days, Adrian Del Castillo's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%.

o1.5 +130
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.20 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
11.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.20 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
11.94% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Esmerlyn Valdez has big-time HR ability (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. Esmerlyn Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.

o1.5 -110
BetMGM logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.52 PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
11.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.52 PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
11.48% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

o1.5 -142
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.74 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.74 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.17% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Over the last 7 days, Tim Tawa's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 12.5%.. Tim Tawa has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 94.2-mph in the past 14 days.. In the past week's worth of games, Tim Tawa's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.2%.

o1.5 +134
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.32 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
10.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.32 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
10.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

o1.5 -129
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
9.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
9.9% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

o1.5 +137
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.21 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
8.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.21 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
8.77% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

o1.5 -126
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.31 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
7.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.31 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
7.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Moreno's 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.. Gabriel Moreno has notched a .289 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (48.9% rate this year).

o1.5 -135
FanDuel logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.16 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
6.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.16 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
6.79% EV

ANALYSIS

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Geraldo Perdomo will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Geraldo Perdomo's launch angle of late (20.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 14.3° seasonal figure.. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Geraldo Perdomo is positioned in the 85th percentile for offensive skills.. Geraldo Perdomo has put up a .278 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 -128
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. There has been a significant improvement in Jake Mangum's launch angle from last year's 0° to 3.1° this season.

o1.5 -130
Caesars logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.51 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-4.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.51 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-4.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Tyler Callihan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Callihan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

o1.5 +126
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-7.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-7.21% EV

ANALYSIS

Jacob Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's matchup.. Jacob Gonzalez will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Jacob Gonzalez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.8% up to 9.1%.. Jacob Gonzalez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.9-mph figure.

o1.5 -105
BetMGM logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
MONEYLINE
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
AZ +101 moneyline
AZ PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Polymarket
Best Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
AZ +101 moneyline

PROJECTION

AZ PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.69% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+105
Polymarket logo
TOTAL
Arizona Diamondbacks logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Over 9.5 Total
10.43 PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Polymarket
Best Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Over 9.5 Total

PROJECTION

10.43 PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.26% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o9.5 +105
Polymarket logo
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
AZ -1.5 spread
-0.45 PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
4.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Polymarket
Best Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
AZ -1.5 spread

PROJECTION

-0.45 PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
4.89% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-1.5 +165
Polymarket logo
TOTAL HITS
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Gonzalez in the 14th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Jacob Gonzalez is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.. Jacob Gonzalez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 24% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.

u0.5 +160
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
3.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
3.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Callihan in the 11th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Tyler Callihan is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. Tyler Callihan has been pulled from the game early 27% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.

u0.5 +115
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
2.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.95 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
2.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Tyler Locklear has been hot in recent games, notching a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past week.. Tyler Locklear has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 7 days — 111.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

o0.5 -140
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total Hits
1.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.05% EV

ANALYSIS

Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Brandon Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.3% down to 6.7%.. In the past 14 days, Brandon Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 95.5 mph to 92.9 mph.

u0.5 +192
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.06 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
0.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.06 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
0.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Today, Bryan Reynolds is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (83rd percentile).. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.. In the past week, Bryan Reynolds's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 94.8 mph to 74.3 mph.. Over the last week, Bryan Reynolds's 20% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 44.5%.. Despite posting a .365 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryan Reynolds has experienced some positive variance given the .026 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339.

u0.5 +202
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.86 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.86 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-1.8% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Over the last 7 days, Tim Tawa's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 12.5%.. Tim Tawa has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 94.2-mph in the past 14 days.. In the past week's worth of games, Tim Tawa's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.2%.

o0.5 -135
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total Hits
1.05 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-2.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.05 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-2.28% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 21st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. From last season to this one, Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 20.2% to 14.1%.. Geraldo Perdomo has been cold of late, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) over the last 14 days.

u0.5 +185
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3% EV

ANALYSIS

Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Esmerlyn Valdez will be in a tough position in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.. In the last two weeks, Esmerlyn Valdez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 28.4% down to 16.7%.. Despite posting a .437 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Esmerlyn Valdez has been very fortunate given the .105 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

u0.5 +155
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total Hits
0.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adrian Del Castillo in the 19th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Adrian Del Castillo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.. Adrian Del Castillo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 26% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Adrian Del Castillo will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

u0.5 +125
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HITS
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total Hits
0.99 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.99 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o0.5 -165
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total Hits
1.18 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.18 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-5% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Moreno's 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

o0.5 -240
FanDuel logo
TOTAL HITS
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total Hits
0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.93 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.54% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 7th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Max Kepler has been pulled from the game early 22% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Max Kepler in today's matchup.. Max Kepler has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 5% in the last 14 days.

u0.5 +153
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total Hits
1.12 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-6.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.12 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-6.48% EV

ANALYSIS

Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Ketel Marte will bat from his bad side against Mitch Keller today.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ketel Marte in today's game.. In the past two weeks, Ketel Marte's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 4%.. Ketel Marte's launch angle this season (12.2°) is significantly lower than his 15.3° mark last year.

u0.5 +195
bet365 logo
TOTAL HITS
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.19 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-7.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.19 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-7.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

o0.5 -270
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-7.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
-7.28% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.

o0.5 -227
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL HITS
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total Hits
0.76 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-7.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

0.76 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-7.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

o0.5 -127
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HITS
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total Hits
1.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-11.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total Hits

PROJECTION

1.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-11.62% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 6th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.

o0.5 -231
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
2.27 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
16.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

2.27 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
16.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

o1.5 +100
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.57 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
16.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.57 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
16.06% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o1.5 +185
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 1.5 Total Bases
2.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
13.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

2.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
13.02% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

o1.5 +110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 1.5 Total Bases
2.04 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

2.04 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 1.5 Total Bases
1.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
11.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.37 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
11.98% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

o1.5 +210
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL BASES
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +140
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
10.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
10.75% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Esmerlyn Valdez has big-time HR ability (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. Esmerlyn Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.

o1.5 +137
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 1.5 Total Bases
1.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.37% EV

ANALYSIS

Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller today.. Adrian Del Castillo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.. Over the past 7 days, Adrian Del Castillo's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%.

o1.5 +170
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.81 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

o1.5 +117
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.75 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.75 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
9.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

o1.5 +128
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 1.5 Total Bases
1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
7.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.72 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
7.5% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Moreno's 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.. Gabriel Moreno has notched a .289 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (48.9% rate this year).

o1.5 +121
Caesars logo
TOTAL BASES
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 1.5 Total Bases
1.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.74% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.55 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
4.74% EV

ANALYSIS

Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. There has been a significant improvement in Jake Mangum's launch angle from last year's 0° to 3.1° this season.. Compared to his seasonal average of 3.1°, Jake Mangum has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 7.2° angle over the last two weeks.

o1.5 +140
DraftKings logo
TOTAL BASES
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 1.5 Total Bases
1.58 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.58 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Geraldo Perdomo will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Geraldo Perdomo's launch angle of late (20.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 14.3° seasonal figure.. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Geraldo Perdomo is positioned in the 85th percentile for offensive skills.. Geraldo Perdomo has put up a .278 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +130
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
0.86 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
1.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.86 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
1.51% EV

ANALYSIS

Tim Tawa is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.. The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Mitch Keller will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tim Tawa in today's matchup.. In today's game, Tim Tawa is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.2% rate (77th percentile).

u1.5 -290
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 1.5 Total Bases
0.95 PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
0.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.95 PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
0.36% EV

ANALYSIS

Tyler Locklear is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Tyler Locklear will be at a disadvantage today.

u1.5 -260
bet365 logo
TOTAL BASES
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 1.5 Total Bases
1.41 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

1.41 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.11% EV

ANALYSIS

Jacob Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's matchup.. Jacob Gonzalez will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Jacob Gonzalez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.8% up to 9.1%.. Jacob Gonzalez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.9-mph figure.

o1.5 +150
BetMGM logo
TOTAL BASES
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 1.5 Total Bases
0.72 PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 1.5 Total Bases

PROJECTION

0.72 PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Tyler Callihan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Callihan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

o1.5 +185
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.25 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
4.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.25 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
4.77% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

o0.5 +398
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.21 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
1.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.21 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
1.07% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +425
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.13 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.13 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.4% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o0.5 +700
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.17 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

o0.5 +505
DraftKings logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.09 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3.74% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.09 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-3.74% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. From last season to this one, Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 20.2% to 14.1%.

u0.5 -1099
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.03 PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.93% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.03 PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
-3.93% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. The switch-hitting Jake Mangum will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Merrill Kelly. Jake Mangum has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest LF fences today.. Jake Mangum's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.4-mph EV last year has dropped off to 84.7-mph.

u0.5 -4000
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-4.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-4.35% EV

ANALYSIS

Tyler Locklear has been hot in recent games, notching a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past week.. Tyler Locklear has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 7 days — 111.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

o0.5 +750
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.44% EV

ANALYSIS

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +500
BetMGM logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.20 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.20 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-4.91% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Esmerlyn Valdez will be in a tough position in today's game.. In the last two weeks, Esmerlyn Valdez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 28.4% down to 16.7%.

u0.5 -450
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-5.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Gabriel Moreno will have a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gabriel Moreno today.

u0.5 -1299
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.12 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Jacob Gonzalez is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.. Jacob Gonzalez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 24% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.

u0.5 -1099
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.16 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.16 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Today, Bryan Reynolds is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (83rd percentile).. In the past week, Bryan Reynolds's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 94.8 mph to 74.3 mph.. In the past 7 days, Bryan Reynolds's 10% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.4%.

u0.5 -752
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.15 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.15 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Adrian Del Castillo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.. Adrian Del Castillo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 26% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.

u0.5 -901
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.10 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-6.54% EV

ANALYSIS

Tim Tawa is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.. The #3 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Mitch Keller will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tim Tawa in today's matchup.. In today's game, Tim Tawa is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.2% rate (77th percentile).

u0.5 -1408
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.24 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.24 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-6.58% EV

ANALYSIS

The #3 field in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The league's 6th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at PNC Park.. Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league parks.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Brandon Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.3% down to 6.7%.. In the past 14 days, Brandon Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 95.5 mph to 92.9 mph.

u0.5 -450
bet365 logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.15 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-10.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.15 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-10.85% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Henry Davis is in the 78th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 24.400.

o0.5 +600
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL HOME RUNS
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs
0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-19.97% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total Home Runs

PROJECTION

0.11 PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-19.97% EV

ANALYSIS

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Tyler Callihan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Callihan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

o0.5 +650
BetMGM logo
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
Merrill Kelly logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kelly (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.35 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-4.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Merrill Kelly logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kelly (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

PROJECTION

4.35 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
-4.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.. PNC Park ranks as the #26 venue in MLB for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Merrill Kelly has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Merrill Kelly today.

u4.5 -130
bet365 logo
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
Mitch Keller logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
M. Keller (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Mitch Keller logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
M. Keller (SP) 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

PROJECTION

4.18 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.39% EV

ANALYSIS

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Mitch Keller will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Considering the 0.81 deviation between Mitch Keller's 6.90 K/9 and his 7.71 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to positively regress going forward.

o3.5 -161
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL RBIS
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
17.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.48 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
17.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Tyler Locklear has been hot in recent games, notching a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past week.. Tyler Locklear has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 7 days — 111.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.. In the last 7 days, Tyler Locklear's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 61.5% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

o0.5 +255
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.42 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.42 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.18% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Over the last 7 days, Tim Tawa's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 12.5%.. Tim Tawa has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 94.2-mph in the past 14 days.. In the past week's worth of games, Tim Tawa's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.2%.

o0.5 +287
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.06% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

o0.5 +158
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.69 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.03% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

o0.5 +166
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL RBIS
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.52 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
14.43% EV

ANALYSIS

Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller today.. Adrian Del Castillo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.. Over the past 7 days, Adrian Del Castillo's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%.

o0.5 +220
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.64 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.64 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

o0.5 +178
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.78 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
13.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.78 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
13.35% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +134
Kalshi Sports logo
TOTAL RBIS
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
12.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.67 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
12.68% EV

ANALYSIS

When estimating his home run skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Esmerlyn Valdez has big-time HR ability (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. Esmerlyn Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.

o0.5 +154
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.47 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.47 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.16% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

o0.5 +234
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.51 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
11.34% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.51 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
11.34% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o0.5 +210
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.59 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
11.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.59 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
11.26% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

o0.5 +169
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.61 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.61 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.96% EV

ANALYSIS

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +165
BetMGM logo
TOTAL RBIS
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.49 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Geraldo Perdomo will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Geraldo Perdomo's launch angle of late (20.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 14.3° seasonal figure.. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Geraldo Perdomo is positioned in the 85th percentile for offensive skills.. Geraldo Perdomo has put up a .278 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o0.5 +213
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.58 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.58 PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.77% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Moreno's 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.. Gabriel Moreno has notched a .289 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (48.9% rate this year).

o0.5 +174
DraftKings logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.45 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.45 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.88% EV

ANALYSIS

Jacob Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's matchup.. Jacob Gonzalez will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Jacob Gonzalez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.8% up to 9.1%.. Jacob Gonzalez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.9-mph figure.

o0.5 +185
bet365 logo
TOTAL RBIS
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.38 PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
0.26% EV

ANALYSIS

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Tyler Callihan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Callihan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

o0.5 +230
BetMGM logo
TOTAL RBIS
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total RBIs
0.33 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-0% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 0.5 Total RBIs

PROJECTION

0.33 PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-0% EV

ANALYSIS

Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. There has been a significant improvement in Jake Mangum's launch angle from last year's 0° to 3.1° this season.. Compared to his seasonal average of 3.1°, Jake Mangum has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 7.2° angle over the last two weeks.

o0.5 +267
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.74 PROJECTION
+1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Corbin Carroll logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
C. Carroll (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.74 PROJECTION
+1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

o1.5 -143
Kalshi Sports logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.62 PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Kalshi Sports
Best Odds
Ketel Marte logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
K. Marte (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.62 PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.6% EV

ANALYSIS

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the past 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ketel Marte's true offensive talent to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .326 wOBA.. Ketel Marte has recorded a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 -137
Kalshi Sports logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Max Kepler logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
M. Kepler (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.14 PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.11% EV

ANALYSIS

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.. Max Kepler's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 16.5° angle last season.. Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .297 mark is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 +100
BetMGM logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.01 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
13.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Nolan Arenado logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
N. Arenado (3B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.01 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
13.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the last week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

o1.5 +115
BetMGM logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.90 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
12.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Tyler Locklear logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Locklear (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.90 PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
12.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Tyler Locklear has been hot in recent games, notching a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past week.. Tyler Locklear has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the last 7 days — 111.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.. In the last 7 days, Tyler Locklear's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 61.5% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

o1.5 +121
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.83 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
A. Del Castillo (DH) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.83 PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller today.. Adrian Del Castillo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.. Over the past 7 days, Adrian Del Castillo's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%.

o1.5 +130
bet365 logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.20 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
11.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
E. Valdez (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.20 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
11.94% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Esmerlyn Valdez has big-time HR ability (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. Esmerlyn Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.

o1.5 -110
BetMGM logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.52 PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
11.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Brandon Lowe logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Lowe (2B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.52 PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
11.48% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

o1.5 -142
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.74 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Tim Tawa logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
T. Tawa (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.74 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.17% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Over the last 7 days, Tim Tawa's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 12.5%.. Tim Tawa has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 94.2-mph in the past 14 days.. In the past week's worth of games, Tim Tawa's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.2%.

o1.5 +134
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.32 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
10.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bryan Reynolds logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
B. Reynolds (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.32 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
10.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

o1.5 -129
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
9.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Henry Davis logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
H. Davis (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
9.9% EV

ANALYSIS

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive talent to be a .315, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 disparity between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

o1.5 +137
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.21 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
8.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
R. O'Hearn (RF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.21 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
8.77% EV

ANALYSIS

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

o1.5 -126
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.31 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
7.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Gabriel Moreno logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Moreno (C) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.31 PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
7.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Moreno's 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.. Gabriel Moreno has notched a .289 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (48.9% rate this year).

o1.5 -135
FanDuel logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.16 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
6.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Arizona Diamondbacks logo
G. Perdomo (SS) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.16 PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
6.79% EV

ANALYSIS

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Geraldo Perdomo will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Geraldo Perdomo's launch angle of late (20.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 14.3° seasonal figure.. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Geraldo Perdomo is positioned in the 85th percentile for offensive skills.. Geraldo Perdomo has put up a .278 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

o1.5 -128
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Jake Mangum logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Mangum (CF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

2.02 PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Jake Mangum is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. There has been a significant improvement in Jake Mangum's launch angle from last year's 0° to 3.1° this season.

o1.5 -130
Caesars logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.51 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-4.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Tyler Callihan logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
T. Callihan (LF) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.51 PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-4.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Tyler Callihan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Callihan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

o1.5 +126
DraftKings logo
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-7.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Pittsburgh Pirates logo
J. Gonzalez (1B) 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

PROJECTION

1.71 PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-7.21% EV

ANALYSIS

Jacob Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's matchup.. Jacob Gonzalez will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Jacob Gonzalez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.8% up to 9.1%.. Jacob Gonzalez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.9-mph figure.

o1.5 -105
BetMGM logo

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'StevenB606' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over (9.0)

StevenB606 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (60-39-4) and +15815 units on the season.

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'StevenB606' picks Pittsburgh at (-127)

StevenB606 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (60-39-4) and +15815 units on the season.

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AZ
PIT
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'VenezUtah' picks Arizona at (101)

VenezUtah is #10 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (49-38-3) and +9905 units on the season.

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'VenezUtah' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over (9.0)

VenezUtah is #10 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (49-38-3) and +9905 units on the season.

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'moman' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over (9.0)

moman is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (37-20-2) and +9550 units on the season.

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'moman' picks Pittsburgh at (-127)

moman is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (37-20-2) and +9550 units on the season.

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PIT
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'any007' picks Pittsburgh at (-132)

any007 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (49-24-4) and +14080 units on the season.

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'any007' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over (9.0)

any007 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (49-24-4) and +14080 units on the season.

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'dglsgow' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Under (9.0)

dglsgow is #2 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (12-10-3) and +15180 units on the season.

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'dglsgow' picks Pittsburgh at (-132)

dglsgow is #2 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (12-10-3) and +15180 units on the season.

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PIT
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'Jhoa' picks Pittsburgh at (-132)

Jhoa is #3 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (29-14-2) and +12370 units on the season.

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PIT
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'Jhoa' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over (9.0)

Jhoa is #3 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (29-14-2) and +12370 units on the season.

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'luckyme1' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over (9.0)

luckyme1 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (42-26-2) and +12563 units on the season.

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'luckyme1' picks Arizona at (-104)

luckyme1 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (42-26-2) and +12563 units on the season.

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PIT
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'glen2003' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over (9.0)

glen2003 is #7 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (53-42-4) and +10895 units on the season.

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'glen2003' picks Pittsburgh at (-132)

glen2003 is #7 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (53-42-4) and +10895 units on the season.

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AZ
PIT
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'barrye1' picks Pittsburgh at (-127)

barrye1 is #7 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (21-9-0) and +10065 units on the season.

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'barrye1' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Over (9.5)

barrye1 is #7 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (21-9-0) and +10065 units on the season.

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'dawoodman' picks Arizona vs Pittsburgh to go Under (9.0)

dawoodman is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (34-23-1) and +9725 units on the season.

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'tazman333' picks Arizona at (101)

tazman333 is #9 on picking games that Arizona is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +9970 units on the season.

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PIT
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'dawoodman' picks Arizona at (-104)

dawoodman is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (34-23-1) and +9725 units on the season.

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PIT
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