Arizona Diamondbacks Picks
2nd in National League West
(49 - 47)
Next Game
STL @ AZ Picks
MLB Picks
Diamondbacks right hander Merrill Kelly draws a brutal matchup in his first start after the All-Star break, facing a fully elite rated Cardinals offense. Kelly is the worst rated pitcher on Batters-Box's current season dataset, while St. Louis enters with five elite rated bats and two strong rated bats. The Cardinals own a favorable .39 default rating, scoring 3+ runs 79% of the time in those situations. Kelly has struggled at home this season, allowing plenty of hard contact and barrels. With the data backing the matchup, this Cardinals lineup has a strong chance to attack Kelly early.
Merrill Kelly and Michael McGreevy, two pitchers who simply cannot miss bats. It's a recipe for an Over, even with a total as high as this. Neither bullpen profiles as particularly elite, either, so any extra lifting can get done in the later innings as well.
D-Backs right-hander Merrill Kelly is on borrowed time. He's getting knocked around the ballpark, doesn't miss bats at all, and can't keep runs off the board, which will only cause problems against a lineup featuring Jordan Walker plus several lefties who can do damage around him.
Diamondbacks right hander Merrill Kelly finds himself in a brutal matchup against Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson, who enters Friday with an elite Batters-Box rating and 100% arsenal coverage against Kelly’s pitch mix. Kelly has struggled significantly against left handed hitters this season, allowing plenty of hard contact and power production. Burleson has continued to generate elite contact quality against right handed pitching despite a recent cold streak, making this a matchup worth targeting. With Kelly’s struggles and Burleson’s ability to elevate the baseball, this spot sets up as a potential power opportunity, with a Burleson nuke in play.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusSTL @ AZ · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MONEYLINE
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
|
|||||||
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
M. Kepler
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.82
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
4.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
I. Vargas
(1B)
0.5 Total Hits
0.90
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
N. Church
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.86
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
T. Tawa
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.80
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
L. Gurriel Jr.
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.98
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-0.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
C. Carroll
(RF)
0.5 Total Hits
1.04
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-2.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
I. Herrera
(DH)
0.5 Total Hits
1.10
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-3.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. Walker
(RF)
0.5 Total Hits
1.08
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-3.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. Fermin
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.89
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
N. Arenado
(3B)
0.5 Total Hits
0.92
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
L. Nootbaar
(LF)
0.5 Total Hits
0.99
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-6.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
J. Wetherholt
(2B)
0.5 Total Hits
1.14
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-6.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HITS
M. Winn
(SS)
0.5 Total Hits
0.99
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-7.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
L. Nootbaar
(LF)
1.5 Total Bases
1.78
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
16.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
J. Wetherholt
(2B)
1.5 Total Bases
1.91
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
12.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
I. Herrera
(DH)
1.5 Total Bases
1.76
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
12.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
C. Carroll
(RF)
1.5 Total Bases
1.99
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
11.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
J. Walker
(RF)
1.5 Total Bases
1.99
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
9.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
M. Winn
(SS)
1.5 Total Bases
1.49
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
5.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
L. Gurriel Jr.
(LF)
1.5 Total Bases
1.51
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
5.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
M. Kepler
(LF)
1.5 Total Bases
1.47
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
3.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
N. Arenado
(3B)
1.5 Total Bases
0.92
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
2.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
N. Church
(LF)
1.5 Total Bases
1.39
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
0.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
J. Fermin
(LF)
1.5 Total Bases
0.89
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
-28.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
I. Vargas
(1B)
1.5 Total Bases
0.89
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL BASES
T. Tawa
(LF)
1.5 Total Bases
0.80
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
I. Herrera
(DH)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.15
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
0.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
T. Tawa
(LF)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
C. Carroll
(RF)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.19
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-5.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
J. Fermin
(LF)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
J. Walker
(RF)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.21
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-7.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
M. Winn
(SS)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.08
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-14.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL HOME RUNS
I. Vargas
(1B)
0.5 Total Home Runs
0.04
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
M. McGreevy
(SP)
2.5 Strikeouts Thrown
2.63
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
STRIKEOUTS THROWN
M. Kelly
(SP)
3.5 Strikeouts Thrown
4.00
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
2.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
L. Nootbaar
(LF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.63
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
15.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
I. Herrera
(DH)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.55
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
14.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
C. Carroll
(RF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.73
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
14.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. Walker
(RF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.73
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. Wetherholt
(2B)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.53
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
12.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
N. Arenado
(3B)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.47
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
12.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
T. Tawa
(LF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.37
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
7.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
L. Gurriel Jr.
(LF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.47
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
5.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
J. Fermin
(LF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.38
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
M. Kepler
(LF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.51
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
4.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
M. Winn
(SS)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.42
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
N. Church
(LF)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.42
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
2.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL RBIS
I. Vargas
(1B)
0.5 Total RBIs
0.34
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-6.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
L. Nootbaar
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.26
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
C. Carroll
(RF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.49
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
11.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
J. Walker
(RF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.45
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
J. Wetherholt
(2B)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.42
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
9.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
I. Herrera
(DH)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
2.32
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
9.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
N. Arenado
(3B)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.83
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
9.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
L. Gurriel Jr.
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.91
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
5.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
M. Winn
(SS)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.84
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
4.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
T. Tawa
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.58
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
M. Kepler
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.86
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
J. Fermin
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.68
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
2.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
N. Church
(LF)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.74
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
1.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
HITS+RUNS+RBIS
I. Vargas
(1B)
1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
1.61
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-5.07%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low