Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

In today's matchup, Kyle Tucker is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.1% rate (89th percentile). Kyle Tucker will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Kyle Tucker's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 91.1-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 88.4-mph in the past 7 days. Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 23.6% to 20.6%. Kyle Tucker has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .288 BA is a fair amount higher than his .269 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nico Hoerner is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game. Batting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Nico Hoerner will not have the upper hand in today's game. Nico Hoerner has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will be challenged by the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the past week's worth of games, Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 86.8 mph to 80.1 mph.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-largest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally bad for homers. Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs. Masyn Winn has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 89.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 85.5-mph in the last 14 days. Masyn Winn's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, decreasing from 43.8% on the season to 32.4% over the last 14 days.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Shaw has experienced some negative variance this year. His .274 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .299.

Andre Pallante will have the handedness advantage against Seiya Suzuki in today's game. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will get to bat from his strong side against Andre Pallante in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage over Andre Pallante in today's matchup. Michael Busch has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 93.5-mph.

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Brendan Donovan will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Nolan Gorman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Nolan Gorman's launch angle of late (34° in the past week) is quite a bit higher than his 21.7° seasonal mark.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Carson Kelly has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.5-mph mark. Carson Kelly has compiled a .359 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 88th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Carson Kelly has posted a .362 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 87th percentile.

Alec Burleson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Willson Contreras will have an advantage in today's game.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Pedro Pages will have an edge in today's matchup. Pedro Pages will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. In the past two weeks, Pedro Pages has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 30.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 11.9°.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Nolan Arenado will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 94°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters. Thomas Saggese will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage today.

Yohel Pozo has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.