Los Angeles @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Gavin Lux has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Gavin Lux will have the upper hand in today's game. Gavin Lux hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Gavin Lux has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 4.1% seasonal rate to 10.5% in the past 14 days.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. The San Diego Padres have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums. Shohei Ohtani will have the handedness advantage against Dylan Cease in today's game.

Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Cavan Biggio will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Cavan Biggio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Cavan Biggio's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (39.3° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 24.8° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-worst ballpark in the majors for lefty batting average. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-best for pitching on the slate. Batting from the same side that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Luis Arraez encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.6-mph mark last season has dropped to 87.1-mph.

Kike Hernandez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Kike Hernandez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph EV. Kike Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, increasing from 42.6% on the season to 72.7% over the last week. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Kike Hernandez's true offensive ability to be a .293, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .036 gap between that mark and his actual .257 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Ha-seong Kim will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today's game. Ha-seong Kim hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Ha-seong Kim will hold that advantage today. Ha-seong Kim has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 88.2-mph average to last year's 86.1-mph mark. Ha-seong Kim has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .230 BA is significantly deflated relative to his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums. Over the past week, Nick Ahmed's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.9% up to 11.1%. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.5°, Nick Ahmed has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 33.3° mark over the past 7 days. Nick Ahmed's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (15.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 11.7° figure last season.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Teoscar Hernandez is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. In the last week, Teoscar Hernandez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 101-mph recently. Teoscar Hernandez's launch angle of late (24.8° in the last 7 days) is significantly higher than his 9.7° seasonal angle. By putting up a .344 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Teoscar Hernandez is positioned in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Donovan Solano is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Donovan Solano will have the handedness advantage over Clayton Kershaw in today's game. Donovan Solano hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Donovan Solano will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Jurickson Profar will get to bat from his strong side against Clayton Kershaw in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Luis Campusano will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Luis Campusano will hold that advantage today.

Jason Heyward is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Jason Heyward will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Cease today. Over the past week, Jason Heyward's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.3-mph over the course of the season to 94.6-mph recently. Jason Heyward has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, checking in at the 85th percentile with a 1.92 K/BB rate.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Manny Machado will have an advantage in today's matchup. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Jackson Merrill will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. In the last week, Jackson Merrill's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.5% up to 16.7%. Jackson Merrill has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 92.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums. Jake Cronenworth will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jake Cronenworth's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 40% to 47%.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums. Andy Pages has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 91-mph. In the last week's worth of games, Andy Pages's 38.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16%. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Andy Pages has had some very poor luck this year. His .294 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .329.

James Outman has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

David Peralta has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.