Boston @ Texas Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mitch Garver in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Mitch Garver is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season. Mitch Garver will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Mitch Garver has made notable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.8% rate last season to 14.4% this season. Mitch Garver's launch angle lately (23.7° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is significantly better than his 18.8° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Connor Wong will have the handedness advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup. With a .345 BABIP this year, Connor Wong is ranked in the 86th percentile.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Corey Seager hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .440 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Corey Seager has had positive variance on his side given the .051 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .389.

Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP ability is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Nathaniel Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford today. Extreme flyball bats like Nathaniel Lowe generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Nathaniel Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Evan Carter will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Evan Carter will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week, Evan Carter has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .386. In the last two weeks, Evan Carter has averaged an impressive 102.4-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced measure of home run potential. Evan Carter has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits lately, angling balls between -4° and 26° 63.6% of the time in the past 14 days.

Luis Urias will have the handedness advantage against Jordan Montgomery today.

Robbie Grossman will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Robbie Grossman has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7.2% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the past week. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Robbie Grossman's 26.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.2%. With a 1.86 K/BB rate this year, Robbie Grossman has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 80th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Justin Turner ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Justin Turner is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Justin Turner will have the handedness advantage over Jordan Montgomery today. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. In the past week, Justin Turner's 29.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Marcus Semien is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Marcus Semien will hold that advantage in today's game. Marcus Semien's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 17% to 20.4%. Over the past week, Marcus Semien's 36.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.4%.

Pablo Reyes is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. Pablo Reyes will have the handedness advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's game. Pablo Reyes's footspeed has increased this year. His 27.16 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.95 ft/sec now. In notching a .284 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Pablo Reyes is positioned in the 89th percentile. Pablo Reyes has exhibited good plate discipline this year, ranking in the 84th percentile with a 1.77 K/BB rate.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jonah Heim will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.2% up to 13.3%. In the last week, Jonah Heim's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.7-mph over the course of the season to 105.9-mph recently. Compared to last season, Jonah Heim has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.4% to 18.4% this season.

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Adam Duvall will have the handedness advantage against Jordan Montgomery today. There has been a significant improvement in Adam Duvall's launch angle from last season's 23.4° to 29.7° this year. Compared to his seasonal average of 29.7°, Adam Duvall has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 37.3° mark in the past two weeks. With a .354 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Adam Duvall is positioned in the 81st percentile.

Josh Smith will have the handedness advantage over Kutter Crawford in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Josh Smith will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Josh Smith has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 11.5% to 18.5%. Josh Smith's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.7% to 19.1%. In the last two weeks, Josh Smith's 35.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.1%.