Minnesota @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Hitters such as James Outman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ranger Suarez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. James Outman has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 96.1-mph. In the past two weeks, James Outman has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 32° compared to his seasonal mark of 23.1°. In terms of his batting average, James Outman has suffered from bad luck this year. His .135 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .171.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Batting from the opposite that Mick Abel throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage in today's game. Bryson Stott has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Bryson Stott has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 5.1% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last 14 days.

Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs.

Kody Clemens is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Kody Clemens's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 17.2% on the season to 26.9% in the past two weeks. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.241) provides evidence that Kody Clemens has experienced some negative variance this year with his .215 actual batting average. Kody Clemens has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 17.2° mark is among the highest in the league this year (89th percentile).

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. J.T. Realmuto will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. J.T. Realmuto has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90-mph figure. Despite posting a .307 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has had some very poor luck given the .024 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Nick Castellanos will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Nick Castellanos has been unlucky this year, compiling a .303 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .320 — a .017 discrepancy.

Royce Lewis is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Royce Lewis will have the handedness advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. Royce Lewis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Royce Lewis has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 9.2% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the past 7 days. In the past two weeks, Royce Lewis has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 20.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 11.6°.

Edmundo Sosa's batting average ability is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Edmundo Sosa will hold that advantage in today's game. Edmundo Sosa is notably athletic, checking in at the 96th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.43 ft/sec this year. Edmundo Sosa has put up a .337 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Brooks Lee pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Brooks Lee's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.8% up to 13.3%. Brooks Lee has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.5-mph average. Brooks Lee's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 17% on the season to 33.3% over the past week.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Ryan Jeffers will have an edge today. Ryan Jeffers has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.1-mph average to last year's 86.9-mph average.

Harrison Bader is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Harrison Bader pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Harrison Bader will hold that advantage today. Harrison Bader's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (19.7° over the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 12.1° seasonal mark. Posting a .353 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Harrison Bader has performed in the 83rd percentile.

Byron Buxton projects as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Byron Buxton is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Byron Buxton will have an advantage today. Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Byron Buxton are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Martin in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Austin Martin is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Austin Martin will have an advantage in today's matchup. Austin Martin has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 5.6% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last week's worth of games.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brandon Marsh is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Batting from the opposite that Mick Abel throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an edge in today's matchup. Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his batting average talent, Alec Bohm is projected as the 19th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Alec Bohm will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Alec Bohm has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 94.8-mph over the past two weeks.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 12th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Mick Abel in today's game. Bryce Harper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 10th-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Kyle Schwarber will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mick Abel in today's matchup. Kyle Schwarber will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs. Carson McCusker will hold the platoon advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's matchup.

Trevor Larnach has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.