Minnesota @ Texas Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ezequiel Duran will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Placing in the 81st percentile, Ezequiel Duran sports a .324 BABIP this year.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Cody Freeman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week, Cody Freeman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.6-mph over the course of the season to 91.9-mph lately. Cody Freeman's launch angle lately (18.1° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is considerably better than his 11.8° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Trevor Larnach will have an advantage in today's matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. Ryan Jeffers has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.1-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph mark. Ryan Jeffers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 37.5% to 45.4%.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Edouard Julien is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Edouard Julien will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. Edouard Julien's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 50% to 56%. Edouard Julien's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 56% on the season to 62.5% in the past week.

Brooks Lee is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Brooks Lee will get to bat from his good side against Jacob deGrom in today's matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. Brooks Lee has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.5-mph average to last season's 85.8-mph figure. In the last week, Brooks Lee's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.7-mph over the course of the season to 106.9-mph lately.

James Outman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob deGrom today. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. James Outman has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 18.6% seasonal rate to 44.4% in the past two weeks' worth of games. James Outman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.1-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 88-mph mark. In terms of his batting average, James Outman has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .145 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .185.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jake Burger is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Jake Burger will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Jake Burger has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 13.6% seasonal rate to 23.5% over the last 14 days. In the past 14 days, Jake Burger's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.3-mph over the course of the season to 101.5-mph in recent games.

Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. Royce Lewis has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.4% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last 7 days. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.9°, Royce Lewis has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 24.3° angle in the past week's worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Royce Lewis's true offensive ability to be a .320, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .025 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .295 wOBA.

Josh Smith is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Josh Smith will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Josh Smith will hold that advantage today. Josh Smith has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past week. In the last 7 days, Josh Smith's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Martin in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Austin Martin is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. This season, Austin Martin has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 90.8 mph compared to last year's 87.2 mph mark. Austin Martin has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 94.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 90.8-mph.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jonah Heim will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 11.1% to 15.7%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Adolis Garcia will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Despite posting a .285 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Adolis Garcia has been unlucky given the .039 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

Kody Clemens is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Kody Clemens will hold the platoon advantage against Jacob deGrom in today's matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. Kody Clemens has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12% seasonal rate to 21.7% in the last 14 days. Over the last 7 days, Kody Clemens's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95-mph over the course of the season to 107.1-mph lately.

Josh Jung's BABIP skill is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Josh Jung will hold that advantage today. Josh Jung has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.1-mph average to last season's 86.2-mph average. Josh Jung has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 93.3-mph.

Ryan Fitzgerald will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob deGrom in today's matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.

Joc Pederson is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Joc Pederson will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Joc Pederson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.1°, Joc Pederson has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 31.3° angle over the last 7 days. Joc Pederson has been unlucky this year, notching a .280 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .342 — a .062 difference.

Byron Buxton projects as the 16th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Byron Buxton is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. Using Statcast data, Byron Buxton ranks in the 89th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .357. Sporting a .367 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Byron Buxton grades out in the 92nd percentile.

Alejandro Osuna is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Alejandro Osuna will have the handedness advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game. Alejandro Osuna will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Over the past week, Alejandro Osuna's 54.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.2%. Alejandro Osuna has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .265 mark is deflated compared to his .331 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Rowdy Tellez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Rowdy Tellez has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 8.1% rate last season to 14.1% this year. Rowdy Tellez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 12% to 17.7%.

Michael Helman will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.