Boston @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Nate Eaton has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 91-mph. Nate Eaton's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 21.7% on the season to 25% in the last 7 days. Nate Eaton is notably toolsy, grading out in the 97th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.54 ft/sec this year.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP ability is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Rob Refsnyder has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season's 89.5-mph average. Compared to last season, Rob Refsnyder has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 11.8% to 21.6% this season. In the past two weeks, Rob Refsnyder's 40.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.6%.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Bob Seymour will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Bob Seymour has hit one of the hardest balls in the league in the past week's worth of games — 115-mph — which is a favorable indicator of recent form and raw power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Junior Caminero will hold the platoon advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Richie Palacios will hold that advantage today. Richie Palacios has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .306 mark is considerably lower than his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of plate discipline, Richie Palacios's ability is quite impressive, sporting a 1.43 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 95th percentile.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 12th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Romy Gonzalez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Romy Gonzalez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.4-mph average to last season's 92.7-mph figure.

Everson Pereira's BABIP talent is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Everson Pereira has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Everson Pereira will have an advantage in today's game. Everson Pereira will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 16th-best batter in the game when it comes to his batting average skill. Chandler Simpson is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Chandler Simpson will hold that advantage in today's game. Chandler Simpson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 87-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 80.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Nathaniel Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. Nathaniel Lowe is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Ceddanne Rafaela has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .295 figure is considerably lower than his .313 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Carlos Narvaez has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Drew Rasmussen today. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best hitter in the game when it comes to his batting average talent. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Yandy Diaz will have an edge today. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Alex Bregman has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year's 90.9-mph EV. Posting a .357 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Alex Bregman is ranked in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Christopher Morel is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Christopher Morel will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Josh Lowe is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Josh Lowe will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Josh Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 14.4% on the season to 30% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's game. Masataka Yoshida will probably have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Williams in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Carson Williams will have an edge today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Carson Williams will hold that advantage in today's game. Carson Williams has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.3% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Trevor Story is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Trevor Story has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. With a .335 BABIP this year, Trevor Story finds himself in the 90th percentile.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Tristan Gray will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Over the past week, Tristan Gray's 70% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.7%. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Tristan Gray has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .265 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .344.

Nick Fortes has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Nick Fortes will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nick Fortes will hold that advantage today. Nick Fortes has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.4-mph average to last year's 84.1-mph EV.