Kansas City @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Jac Caglianone will hold the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's matchup. Jac Caglianone has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.2-mph EV. Jac Caglianone has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .223 mark is a fair amount lower than his .336 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. This year, the hardest ball Jac Caglianone has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.1 mph (a reliable metric to study power), ranking in the 91st percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jonathan India ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Jonathan India's launch angle this season (17°) is a significant increase over his 13.3° figure last year. Jonathan India has been unlucky this year, notching a .301 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .033 discrepancy. In terms of plate discipline, Jonathan India's skill is quite strong, posting a 1.83 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 75th percentile.

Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Michael Massey will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Michael Massey's launch angle this year (22.4°) is significantly higher than his 16.7° angle last year.

Maikel Garcia's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Maikel Garcia has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal mark of 90.6-mph. Maikel Garcia's launch angle this season (9.7°) is quite a bit better than his 6.2° angle last season.

Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Kyle Isbel will hold the platoon advantage over Walker Buehler today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage over Michael Lorenzen in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today's game. Max Kepler has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 6.2% rate last season to 11.7% this season.

Bryson Stott's batting average talent is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand today. Bryson Stott has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Bryson Stott's launch angle lately (21.5° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 16° seasonal mark.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have the upper hand today. Over the last 7 days, Vinnie Pasquantino's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.3% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Edmundo Sosa will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Edmundo Sosa has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph to 91.9-mph over the last 14 days. Edmundo Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 39.5% to 45.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Otto Kemp is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Otto Kemp will hold that advantage in today's game. Otto Kemp has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .233 BA is significantly deflated relative to his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Mike Yastrzemski will have an advantage in today's game. In the last 7 days, Mike Yastrzemski's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.5%. Mike Yastrzemski's 19.5° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in Major League Baseball: 92nd percentile.

Harrison Bader is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Harrison Bader pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Harrison Bader will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Harrison Bader's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.6-mph over the course of the season to 107.5-mph in recent games. Harrison Bader's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, increasing from 42% on the season to 66.7% in the past week's worth of games.

Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Adam Frazier will have an edge in today's game. Over the last week, Adam Frazier's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2% up to 14.3%. Last season, Adam Frazier had an average launch angle of 11.9° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 16.2°. Over the last week, Adam Frazier's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.9%.

Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 8th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.2-mph EV. In the last two weeks, Bobby Witt Jr.'s 26.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Salvador Perez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.337) suggests that Salvador Perez has been unlucky this year with his .305 actual wOBA. This year, Salvador Perez's 14.8% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. J.T. Realmuto will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates J.T. Realmuto's true offensive ability to be a .333, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .017 deviation between that figure and his actual .316 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 12th-best hitter in the league. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Michael Lorenzen today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his BABIP talent, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brandon Marsh is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an advantage in today's matchup. Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 13th-best hitter in baseball. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge today. Bryce Harper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage in today's game.