Pittsburgh @ Baltimore Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Andrew McCutchen has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal mark of 94.3-mph.

Henry Davis has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 95.9-mph over the past 7 days. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.306) suggests that Henry Davis has suffered from bad luck this year with his .236 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Bradish throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's game. Oneil Cruz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year, putting up a .299 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .353 — a .054 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Tommy Pham is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Coby Mayo will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Coby Mayo ranks in the 88th percentile with a 20.3° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The shallowest right field fences among all parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Kyle Bradish. Bryan Reynolds has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 10.9% seasonal rate to 27.3% over the last 7 days.

Jared Triolo's BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jared Triolo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Jared Triolo has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jared Triolo has had some very poor luck this year. His .298 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .334. Jared Triolo has displayed strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 84th percentile with a 1.59 K/BB rate.

Over the last week, Cam Devanney has posted a 50° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

Ryan Mountcastle's BABIP ability is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan Mountcastle is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Ryan Mountcastle has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Ryan Mountcastle will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Spencer Horwitz is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Spencer Horwitz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Bradish in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Spencer Horwitz's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.3%.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 20th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have an edge in today's game. Gunnar Henderson may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP. Gunnar Henderson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

Jeremiah Jackson is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Jeremiah Jackson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Jeremiah Jackson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. In the past 14 days, Jeremiah Jackson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 99.4-mph lately.

Batting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Samuel Basallo will have an edge in today's matchup. Samuel Basallo may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Samuel Basallo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Samuel Basallo has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.3% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Beavers in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Dylan Beavers will have the handedness advantage against Michael Burrows in today's matchup. Dylan Beavers will probably have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Dylan Beavers is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#1-worst of the day).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Jackson Holliday will have an edge in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Holliday has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Jackson Holliday hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Emmanuel Rivera has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Emmanuel Rivera will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Emmanuel Rivera's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, rising from 49.4% on the season to 60.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.261) provides evidence that Emmanuel Rivera has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .247 actual batting average.