Pittsburgh @ Boston Picks & Props

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Batting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an advantage in today's matchup. Oneil Cruz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Oneil Cruz's true offensive ability to be a .353, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .050 gap between that figure and his actual .303 wOBA.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Romy Gonzalez will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Romy Gonzalez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year's 92.7-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jared Triolo is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jared Triolo has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jared Triolo has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 6.4% seasonal rate to 11.5% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Bryan Reynolds's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Lucas Giolito in this game. Bryan Reynolds has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Alexander Canario's footspeed has gotten better this year. His 27.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.98 ft/sec now. Alexander Canario has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .260 mark is considerably lower than his .312 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Alexander Canario's 12.8% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) is in the 85th percentile this year.

Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Spencer Horwitz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's game. Spencer Horwitz has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs), Spencer Horwitz and his 20.3% rank in the 96th percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. By putting up a 1.86 K/BB rate this year, Andrew McCutchen has displayed impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 75th percentile.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Henry Davis has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.7% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 14 days. Henry Davis has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph to 91-mph in the last week. Henry Davis's launch angle in recent games (28.1° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is a significant increase over his 23.6° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Tommy Pham's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.4% up to 27.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Roman Anthony will hold the platoon advantage over Mitch Keller in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Roman Anthony can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage in today's game. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Hamilton has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. David Hamilton has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. The 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Masataka Yoshida will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today. Masataka Yoshida may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.

Jarren Duran's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller in today's matchup. Jarren Duran may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.

Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, rising from 47.2% on the season to 61.3% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Trevor Story will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have the upper hand today. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 101.9-mph average in the last week to his seasonal EV of 93.4-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Carlos Narvaez has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Carlos Narvaez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Nate Eaton has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.