Pittsburgh @ Boston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 field in baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dustin May today... and even more favorably, May has a huge platoon split. Oneil Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year, posting a .302 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .353 — a .051 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 field in baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against a pitcher with a huge platoon split (Dustin May) in today's game. Bryan Reynolds has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 field in baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Spencer Horwitz will have the handedness advantage over Dustin May today... and moreover, May has a huge platoon split. Spencer Horwitz has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Spencer Horwitz is in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (20.4% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the past two weeks, Tommy Pham's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 106.6-mph lately.

Jared Triolo's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jared Triolo is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Jared Triolo has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Jared Triolo has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 6.5% seasonal rate to 20% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 field in baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Roman Anthony will have the handedness advantage against Johan Oviedo in today's game. Roman Anthony may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 field in baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Johan Oviedo throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Liover Peguero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. The standard deviation of Liover Peguero's launch angle has been very consistent recently (34.8° in the past 14 days), which is a proxy for reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 field in baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Johan Oviedo throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage in today's game. David Hamilton may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP. David Hamilton has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jarren Duran is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 field in baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Johan Oviedo throws from, Jarren Duran will have the upper hand today. Jarren Duran has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 87th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Joey Bart's launch angle recently (35.5° in the last week) is considerably better than his 8.2° seasonal angle. Joey Bart's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 43.1% to 50.9%.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Andrew McCutchen has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 94.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph to 88-mph in the last week. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 47.4% on the season to 63.3% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Ceddanne Rafaela's batting average talent is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Romy Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB batting average. Carlos Narvaez has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's game.

Alexander Canario has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Henry Davis has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.