Boston @ Baltimore Picks & Props

The #9 field in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Extreme flyball hitters like Coby Mayo usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Coby Mayo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Coby Mayo has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.1-mph figure. As it relates to his batting average, Coby Mayo has had bad variance on his side this year. His .194 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .226.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.7°, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 63° mark in the last 7 days. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (23.5°) is considerably better than his 19.7° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Dylan Beavers will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Dylan Beavers are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Dylan Beavers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The #9 field in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Despite posting a .229 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Connor Wong has had some very poor luck given the .066 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Connor Wong sits with a .321 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. Hitting from the opposite that Dietrich Enns throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage in today's game. David Hamilton has been unlucky this year, putting up a .237 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .283 — a .046 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Roman Anthony will have the handedness advantage over Dietrich Enns in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Vimael Machin will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Vimael Machin will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Trevor Story's BABIP skill is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #9 field in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Over the past week, Trevor Story's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 99.6-mph of late. Trevor Story's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 43.1% on the season to 64.3% in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Colton Cowser will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Dietrich Enns throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's game. Using Statcast metrics, Masataka Yoshida grades out in the 82nd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .269.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dietrich Enns in today's game. Posting a .328 BABIP this year, Jarren Duran finds himself in the 84th percentile.

The #9 field in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In the past 7 days, Carlos Narvaez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.2% up to 14.3%. Carlos Narvaez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.1-mph. Carlos Narvaez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 41.3% on the season to 57.1% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. Nathaniel Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dietrich Enns in today's game. Last year, Nathaniel Lowe had an average launch angle of 8.7° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 12.2°. Nathaniel Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, going from 12.3% on the season to 23.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Ceddanne Rafaela's batting average talent is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ceddanne Rafaela has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. The #9 field in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ceddanne Rafaela has had some very poor luck this year. His .305 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .329.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The #9 field in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Alex Bregman has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last season's 90.9-mph average. Alex Bregman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (19° in the past week's worth of games) is significantly better than his 15.6° seasonal figure.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 19th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Gunnar Henderson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Jackson Holliday will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage in today's game.

Ryan Mountcastle's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. The #9 field in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ryan Mountcastle will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Samuel Basallo will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. Samuel Basallo will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the last week, Samuel Basallo's maximum exit velocity (a strong proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 112.1-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the league.

Jeremiah Jackson is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The #9 field in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Jeremiah Jackson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Jeremiah Jackson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. A consistent launch angle is an indicator of good hitting, and Jeremiah Jackson has been very consistent with his recently, notching a 36.4° launch angle standard deviation in the last 7 days.