Boston @ Baltimore picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Despite posting a .229 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Connor Wong has had some very poor luck given the .066 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Connor Wong sits with a .321 BABIP since the start of last season.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Alex Bregman has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last season's 90.9-mph average.. Alex Bregman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (19° in the past week's worth of games) is significantly better than his 15.6° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Trevor Story is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Trevor Story has big-time HR ability (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Dietrich Enns struggles to strike batters out (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Story.. Over the past week, Trevor Story's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 99.6-mph of late.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 19th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.. Gunnar Henderson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

As it relates to his home run skill, Colton Cowser ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Colton Cowser will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. Hitting from the opposite that Dietrich Enns throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's game.. Using Statcast metrics, Masataka Yoshida grades out in the 82nd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .269.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dietrich Enns in today's game.. Jarren Duran has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 13.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 18.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ceddanne Rafaela's batting average talent is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ceddanne Rafaela has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.. Ceddanne Rafaela has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 17.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably lower than his 23.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. In the past 7 days, Carlos Narvaez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.2% up to 14.3%.. Carlos Narvaez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.1-mph.. Carlos Narvaez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 41.3% on the season to 57.1% in the past week's worth of games.

It is anticipated that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Mark Ripperger) behind the plate today.. The #3 park in the league for boosting home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. Given his large platoon split, Brayan Bello will have a tough matchup being matched up with 6 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the other side in this game.. Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Brayan Bello (49.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 FB hitters in Baltimore's projected lineup.