Houston @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's LF dimensions are the 3rd-deepest. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Carlos Correa in today's matchup. In the past week, Carlos Correa's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yainer Diaz in today's game. Yainer Diaz's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 90.3-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 85.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Yainer Diaz's launch angle of late (4° in the past two weeks) is considerably worse than his 11.1° seasonal angle. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 49% to 42.4%. By putting up a 4.84 K/BB rate this year, Yainer Diaz has displayed bad plate discipline, ranking in the 9th percentile.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Coby Mayo will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Coby Mayo's launch angle of late (25.5° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 20.2° seasonal figure. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.232) suggests that Coby Mayo has suffered from bad luck this year with his .204 actual batting average. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Coby Mayo ranks in the 87th percentile with a 20.2° launch angle, which is among the most flyball-inducing angles in baseball.

Today, Jeremy Pena is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33% rate (75th percentile). Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Jeremy Pena's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88.2-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 86.2-mph in the past 14 days. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, falling from 43.3% on the season to 24% over the past 14 days. Jeremy Pena has been lucky this year, notching a .365 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .036 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Altuve will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup. Jose Altuve has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 92.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 89.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average. Batting from the opposite that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Jackson Holliday will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average. The shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hitting from the opposite that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Dylan Beavers will have an edge today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Dylan Beavers will hold that advantage today. Dylan Beavers has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits recently, angling balls between -4° and 26° 62.5% of the time over the past week.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Chas McCormick will have an advantage in today's matchup. Chas McCormick has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today. Chas McCormick has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last season's 90.9-mph EV. Last year, Chas McCormick had an average launch angle of 15.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 23.3°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Mauricio Dubon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 12.1% to 19.4%.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Alex Jackson will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Alex Jackson has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last year's 93.3-mph EV. Since the start of last season, Alex Jackson's 11.3% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 82nd percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average. Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today's game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ramon Urias will have the handedness advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup. Ramon Urias's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 38.1% to 44.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Ryan Mountcastle is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ryan Mountcastle has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Ryan Mountcastle will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Jeremiah Jackson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jeremiah Jackson will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jeremiah Jackson has hit one of the hardest balls in Major League Baseball in the last 7 days — 108.8-mph — which is a strong proxy for recent form and raw power. In the past 14 days, Jeremiah Jackson's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 28% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average. The shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Dylan Carlson will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Dylan Carlson's launch angle this season (18.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 15.5° figure last year. In the past 14 days, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 34.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 21.8°.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Christian Walker will have an advantage in today's game. Christian Walker's launch angle recently (49.7° in the last week's worth of games) is significantly better than his 16.8° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .303 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has been unlucky given the .027 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average. Gunnar Henderson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. in today's matchup. Gunnar Henderson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Luis Vazquez has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.