St. Louis @ Miami picks

Sandy Alcantara has had an up-and-down season, but he has a great spot today indoors at home and vs. a Cardinals team that is off to Tampa Bay following this game. At home, the Miami starter has allowed fewer than a hit per inning and the Cardinals aren’t a powerhouse of a lineup. Alcantara is coming off one of his best starts of the year, allowing just two hits in Fenway and THE BAT is projecting 5.5 hits allowed on 93 pitches. His Over 4.5 Ks at -105 or better also looks good with a projection of 4.86. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.2 mph compared to last year's 91.5 mph mark.. By putting up a .353 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ivan Herrera is positioned in the 84th percentile.. Placing in the 93rd percentile, Ivan Herrera has notched a .341 BABIP this year.

Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today.. Eric Wagaman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Eric Wagaman has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 6.3% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 14 days.. Eric Wagaman has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.8-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara in today's matchup.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Alec Burleson has recorded a .345 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.

Heriberto Hernandez's batting average skill is projected to be in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the 7th-worst venue in the game for RHB home runs.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Andre Pallante will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Heriberto Hernandez in today's matchup.

Joey Wiemer hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team in action today.. Joey Wiemer will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Joey Wiemer has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 21.3° mark is among the highest in the majors since the start of last season (94th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Sandy Alcantara today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.7°, Nolan Gorman has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 33.8° figure in the last week's worth of games.. Grading out in the 77th percentile for power, Nolan Gorman has hit 25.8 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.