Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for pitching of all games today. Because of Dustin May's huge platoon split, Jordan Westburg will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jordan Westburg in today's game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for pitching of all games today. Because of Dustin May's huge platoon split, Ryan Mountcastle will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ryan Mountcastle in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for LHB batting average. Roman Anthony has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Roman Anthony will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Fenway Park. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Abraham Toro will get to bat from his good side against Trevor Rogers today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Abraham Toro has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.4-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 86.3-mph mark.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for pitching of all games today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Gunnar Henderson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Over the last week, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.1% down to 0%.

Jarren Duran's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for LHB batting average. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jarren Duran will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Jarren Duran has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 99.4-mph over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for LHB batting average. Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage over Dustin May in today's game... and even better, May has a huge platoon split. Colton Cowser has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Dylan Carlson's launch angle this year (18.5°) is significantly better than his 15.5° mark last year. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (29.8° over the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 22.6° seasonal mark. Dylan Carlson has been unlucky this year, compiling a .265 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .042 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Given Dustin May's huge platoon split, Dylan Beavers will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.

Jackson Holliday's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for LHB batting average. Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage over Dustin May in today's game... and moreover, May has a huge platoon split. Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Adley Rutschman has been unlucky this year, posting a .302 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .332 — a .030 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Alex Bregman will have an advantage in today's game. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Fenway Park. Carlos Narvaez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers in today's matchup. Carlos Narvaez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Carlos Narvaez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 98.5-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 15th-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP skill. Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez will have the handedness advantage over Trevor Rogers in today's game. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Trevor Story will have an advantage in today's game. Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Fenway Park. Rob Refsnyder has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last season's 89.5-mph figure. Rob Refsnyder grades out in the 93rd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (47.6% rate since the start of last season). Rob Refsnyder has notched a .357 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 91st percentile.

The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Coby Mayo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Coby Mayo's 56.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.238) provides evidence that Coby Mayo has been unlucky this year with his .204 actual batting average. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Coby Mayo ranks in the 86th percentile with a 20.1° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in baseball.

The #6 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Fenway Park.