New York @ St. Louis picks

Aaron Judge figures to be in a great spot tonight. The three primary pitches of Andre Pallante (fastball, slider, sinker) are three pitches that Judge ranks in the top three among Yankees in hard-hit rate against. Judge performing favorably in these metrics is certainly not earthshaking news, given that he’s Aaron Judge; however, the fastball reliance is quite a story. Pallante throws the heater over 50% of the time, and the season-long metrics heavily indicate how little he trusts his other options. This will put him in the uncomfortable position of being forced to throw some heaters to Judge, who is one of the best fastball hitters of his generation.

I debated this play and Andre Pallante’s Under 3.5 Ks at plus money, but with the Yankees in town and it being close to 100-degree feel-like temperatures, I’m taking the runs. The St. Louis starter is coming off a short outing vs. the Cubs, where he gave up six runs on just five total outs. He allows more than a hit per inning, can hand out free passes, and has terrible K stuff. He needs contact to get outs and the setting is working against him today. 

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in MLB.. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather on the slate today at 89°.. Hitting from the opposite that Luis Gil throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ben Rice ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.. Ben Rice will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Luis Gil in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather on the slate today at 89°.. Ivan Herrera hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his home run talent, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the upper hand today.

Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's game.. Austin Wells is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.. Extreme groundball hitters like Austin Wells are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.. Lars Nootbaar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Gil in today's matchup.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 4th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.. Giancarlo Stanton has big-time HR ability (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante struggles to strike batters out (13th percentile K%) — great news for Stanton.