Arizona @ Texas Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Tyler Locklear is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Over the last 7 days, Tyler Locklear's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Ezequiel Duran will hold that advantage in today's game. Ezequiel Duran has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season's 89.8-mph average.

James McCann has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph figure. James McCann has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 25.15 ft/sec to 26.29 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). James McCann has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .238 rate is deflated compared to his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Merrill Kelly. Over the past 7 days, Geraldo Perdomo's 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.3%. Using Statcast metrics, Geraldo Perdomo is in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .283. When it comes to plate discipline, Geraldo Perdomo's talent is quite impressive, putting up a 0.84 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 100th percentile.

Evan Carter is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Evan Carter will have the handedness advantage against Zac Gallen today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Evan Carter will hold that advantage today.

Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Alek Thomas will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Alek Thomas has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.4-mph mark. Ranking in the 75th percentile, Alek Thomas has put up a .317 BABIP this year.

Ketel Marte projects as the 11th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Ketel Marte's launch angle this season (14.8°) is significantly higher than his 9.3° angle last season. Ketel Marte's launch angle recently (19.5° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 14.6° seasonal mark. Ketel Marte has compiled a .390 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 97th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage today. Jake Burger's launch angle this season (16.6°) is quite a bit better than his 12.8° figure last season. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Burger's true offensive talent to be a .342, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .057 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .285 wOBA. This year, Jake Burger's 12.4% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 79th percentile among his peers.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 7th-best batter in the majors. Corey Seager is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Corey Seager will have the handedness advantage over Zac Gallen today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Corey Seager will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Corey Seager has been unlucky this year, notching a .360 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .380 — a .020 discrepancy.

Adolis Garcia's launch angle this year (17.9°) is significantly better than his 14.8° figure last season. Adolis Garcia has been unlucky this year, notching a .285 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .040 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 79th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Jake McCarthy will have the handedness advantage over Merrill Kelly in today's game. This season, Jake McCarthy has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 91.7 mph compared to last year's 87.1 mph mark. Jake McCarthy has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .242 figure is a good deal lower than his .281 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blaze Alexander in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Blaze Alexander has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 3.4% rate last year to 14.1% this season. Blaze Alexander has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.9-mph average to last season's 88.5-mph mark. Blaze Alexander has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 94.1-mph over the past week. Blaze Alexander has recorded a .330 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Josh Smith is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. Josh Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zac Gallen in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Josh Smith will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.2°, Josh Smith has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 34.3° figure over the last 7 days. Josh Smith has shown favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 76th percentile with a 1.81 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Despite posting a .318 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Wyatt Langford has experienced some negative variance given the .034 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .352.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Marcus Semien ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Marcus Semien will hold that advantage today. Marcus Semien's launch angle this season (19.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 16.7° angle last season. Marcus Semien has been unlucky this year, putting up a .289 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .038 disparity.

Jonah Heim will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jonah Heim's true offensive talent to be a .284, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .019 difference between that mark and his actual .265 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Josh Jung will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Josh Jung's 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.262) suggests that Josh Jung has had bad variance on his side this year with his .244 actual batting average.

Adrian Del Castillo is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Adrian Del Castillo will have an advantage in today's game. Adrian Del Castillo has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 5.9% seasonal rate to 25% over the last week. Adrian Del Castillo has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91-mph EV. Compared to his seasonal average of 27°, Adrian Del Castillo has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 37.6° mark over the last two weeks.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.8% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the past week. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 92.2-mph. In the last week, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s 64.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.9%.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Joc Pederson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Joc Pederson is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Hitting from the opposite that Zac Gallen throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge in today's game. Joc Pederson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Joc Pederson has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 9.2% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week's worth of games.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an advantage in today's game. Corbin Carroll has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 7.3% rate last season to 15.6% this season. Corbin Carroll has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 15.2% seasonal rate to 30.8% in the last 7 days.

Rowdy Tellez will hold the platoon advantage over Zac Gallen today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's game. Rowdy Tellez has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 8.1% rate last season to 15.9% this season. Rowdy Tellez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 12% to 18.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.251) suggests that Rowdy Tellez has experienced some negative variance this year with his .220 actual batting average.

Sam Haggerty has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.