Arizona @ Texas picks

Kelly has fanned five or fewer in five of his past seven starts while posting a pedestrian 6.9 K/9 and 18.9 K/9. He’s held opposing batters to an unsustainably low .209 BABIP during the stretch, and his 4.58 xFIP suggests his 3.10 ERA over the seven game is a bit of a mirage. Kelly will also face his former team Wednesday, and the Diamondbacks have been tough on righties all season with a league-high.340 wOBA (.333 mark since the All-Star break) and middling 21.6 K%.

While the right-hander did give up four earned runs last time out against the Philadelphia Phillies, he put together a dominant streak before that. Kelly had cashed the Under in earned runs surrendered in five consecutive outings, only allowing more than one run once during that span.

When estimating his home run ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage today.. Jake Burger's launch angle this season (16.6°) is quite a bit better than his 12.8° figure last season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Burger's true offensive talent to be a .342, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .057 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .285 wOBA.

Ketel Marte projects as the 11th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.. Ketel Marte's launch angle this season (14.8°) is significantly higher than his 9.3° angle last season.

Evan Carter is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Evan Carter will have the handedness advantage against Zac Gallen today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Evan Carter will hold that advantage today.

Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Rowdy Tellez will hold the platoon advantage over Zac Gallen today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Rowdy Tellez has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 8.1% rate last season to 15.9% this season.. Rowdy Tellez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 12% to 18.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Tyler Locklear is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Over the last 7 days, Tyler Locklear's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Ezequiel Duran will hold that advantage in today's game.. Ezequiel Duran has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season's 89.8-mph average.

Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.. James McCann has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph figure.. James McCann has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 25.15 ft/sec to 26.29 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).. James McCann has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .238 rate is deflated compared to his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Joc Pederson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Joc Pederson is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Zac Gallen throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge in today's game.. Joc Pederson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Jonah Heim will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jonah Heim's true offensive talent to be a .284, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .019 difference between that mark and his actual .265 wOBA.

Globe Life Field ranks as the #10 park in the game for walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Merrill Kelly today.. Merrill Kelly's slider percentage has fallen by 5% from last year to this one (11.8% to 6.8%) .. Among all starting pitchers, Merrill Kelly's fastball velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 22nd percentile this year.