Boston @ Houston picks

Arrighetti has been hit hard in consecutive starts (12.27 ERA and 2.45 WHIP) since returning from a broken thumb, and he wasn’t sharp during his rehab assignments in the minors (5.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), either. This checks out as a daunting matchup, too. Boston sports the fourth-highest wOBA and below-average 21.3 K% against righties since the calendar flipped to July.

In his first start with the Red Sox, Dustin May allowed three earned runs to the Royals. He’s cashed the Over in earned runs allowed in three of his last four outings, previously giving up four earned runs to Boston while still a member of the Dodgers. He’s only cashed the Under in earned runs twice in his previous eight appearances. May’s 4.93 ERA is already unsightly, and he’s been substantially worse on the road, posting a 7.09 mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Grading out in the 85th percentile for power, Alex Bregman has paced 28.4 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in the league.. Considering Dustin May's huge platoon split, Taylor Trammell will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Taylor Trammell will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 7th-worst venue in the league for run-scoring.. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Dustin May will have the handedness advantage over Christian Walker today... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering May's huge platoon split.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 7th-worst venue in the league for run-scoring.. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Grading out in the 85th percentile for power, Alex Bregman has paced 28.4 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

When assessing his home run skill, Trevor Story ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 95th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge today.. Wilyer Abreu has hit 35.3 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 95th percentile for power.