Tampa Bay @ Seattle picks
T-Mobile Park
TB vs SEA Picks
MLB Picks
Total

Kenny Ducey
Betting Analyst
Seattle does hit for a decent amount of power, however, and despite striking out at a brutal 24.9% clip, its walk rate is at least up at 9.1% over the last two weeks. One interesting note, too, is that while the Mariners’ home run-to-fly ball ratio has certainly been lower at home, it still sits near the top of the leaderboard at 12.7%. The Tampa Bay Rays may be cold at the plate right now, but this team can still hit for a little power – and if not for abysmal plate discipline numbers, it would be looking a lot better. Evans is striking out very few batters, and he’s throwing a lot of hittable strikes – making the call on the Over here an easy one.
Total RBIs

Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 11th-best batter in the game when estimating his batting average ability.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. T-Mobile Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Julio Rodriguez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 93.3-mph over the last two weeks.
Total RBIs

Yandy Diaz o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his batting average skill.. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Yandy Diaz has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year's 91.9-mph figure.. Last season, Yandy Diaz had an average launch angle of 1.3° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 6.3°.
Total RBIs

Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Eugenio Suarez projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.. Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Eugenio Suarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Eugenio Suarez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last season's 92.6-mph EV.
Outs Recorded

Joe Boyle u14.5 Outs Recorded (+120)
Projection 13.5 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Joe Boyle is projected to throw 82 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of all pitchers on the slate.. The 5th-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Seattle Mariners.. It is likely that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Ramon De Jesus) behind the plate today.. T-Mobile Park has the 4th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks.. Joe Boyle will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.
Total Bases

Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-165)
Projection 0.7 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 3rd-best pitching conditions of all games today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for hurlers.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Joe Boyle
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Cole Young o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-145)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Batting from the opposite that Joe Boyle throws from, Cole Young will have an advantage today.. Cole Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Cole Young will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Over the past two weeks, Cole Young's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.2-mph over the course of the season to 94.2-mph of late.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.6) implies that Cole Young has experienced some negative variance this year with his 9.8 actual HR/600.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Dominic Canzone o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Canzone in the 76th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. T-Mobile Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls.. Hitting from the opposite that Joe Boyle throws from, Dominic Canzone will have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Dominic Canzone will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Dominic Canzone has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last year's 89.9-mph figure.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

J.P. Crawford o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Batting from the opposite that Joe Boyle throws from, J.P. Crawford will have the upper hand in today's game.. J.P. Crawford has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and J.P. Crawford will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. J.P. Crawford's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 16.6% to 19.9%.. J.P. Crawford's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 19.9% on the season to 35.7% in the past 7 days.
Outs Recorded

Logan Evans o15.5 Outs Recorded (+132)
Projection 15.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
It may be smart to expect negative regression for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.. Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 3rd-best pitching conditions of all games today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Tristan Gray o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 1.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating