Tampa Bay @ Seattle picks

Through 22 starts this season, Drew Rasmussen is 9-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally impressive, as he ranks in the 72nd percentile or higher in expected ERA (xERA), walk rate, and barrel rate. He outranks Mariners SP Luis Castillo across the board, and the right-hander has struggled vs. Tampa.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 5th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Over the last 14 days, Julio Rodriguez has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.9% to 17%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 7th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.. Junior Caminero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 105.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 96.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best batter in MLB when it comes to his batting average ability.. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (6.3°) is significantly higher than his 1.3° angle last year.. Using Statcast data, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 94th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .290.

The #1 field in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which often leads to worse offense.. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will bat from his worse side (0) today against Drew Rasmussen. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today.

Taylor Walls has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 7th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 15.8% to 19.9%.. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, rising from 19.9% on the season to 28.6% over the past 7 days.. In terms of his batting average, Taylor Walls has had some very poor luck this year. His .222 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .238.

Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cole Young will have an advantage in today's game.. Cole Young pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Cole Young will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Cole Young has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 91.2-mph.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.3) implies that Cole Young has had some very poor luck this year with his 10.1 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Considering Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 7th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Hunter Feduccia will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo in today's game... and moreover, Castillo has a large platoon split.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 7th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Because of Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Tristan Gray will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 7th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, J.P. Crawford will have an advantage today.. J.P. Crawford has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. J.P. Crawford will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. J.P. Crawford has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 5.7% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past week.. J.P. Crawford's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 16.6% to 19.8%.