Baltimore @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Colton Cowser's true offensive ability to be a .327, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .030 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .297 wOBA.

Harrison Bader has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (99% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Harrison Bader will have the upper hand today. Harrison Bader pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Harrison Bader will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Harrison Bader has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 93.3-mph.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Dylan Carlson will get to bat from his better side against Ranger Suarez in today's game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 39.1% to 45.9%. Dylan Carlson has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .243 figure is a good deal lower than his .277 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 12th-best hitter in the game. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Bryce Harper will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Bryce Harper's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.1% up to 21.4%.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Coby Mayo will have an edge in today's game. Bats such as Coby Mayo with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ranger Suarez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Otto Kemp will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Otto Kemp will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Otto Kemp's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 21.1% on the season to 44.4% over the past two weeks.

Jackson Holliday's BABIP talent is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Ranger Suarez. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 19th-best hitter in the game. Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. In the past week, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph lately.

Alex Jackson will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez today. Alex Jackson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Alex Jackson's 12.1% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 86th percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Alex Jackson's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 75th percentile at 93.9 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have an advantage today. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Batting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Edmundo Sosa will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Edmundo Sosa will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Checking in at the 87th percentile, Edmundo Sosa has put up a .323 BABIP since the start of last season.

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #24 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which generally leads to less offense. Trea Turner's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 43.4% on the season to 18.8% in the past week. Trea Turner and his 7° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 12th percentile, among the lowest in the league this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. J.T. Realmuto will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Rogers in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jordan Westburg is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Jordan Westburg will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Nick Castellanos's batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Nick Castellanos will hold the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers today. Nick Castellanos will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Jeremiah Jackson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Jeremiah Jackson will have the handedness advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Compiling a 96.2-mph average exit velocity in the last week's worth of games, Jeremiah Jackson has been in great form of late.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 13th-best hitter in baseball. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Kyle Schwarber will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Kyle Schwarber has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.6% rate last season to 20.7% this year.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Weston Wilson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Weston Wilson will hold that advantage in today's game. By putting up a .259 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Weston Wilson grades out in the 78th percentile. In notching a .263 batting average since the start of last season, Weston Wilson grades out in the 83rd percentile.

Max Kepler has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Brandon Marsh has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Bryson Stott has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.