Baltimore @ Philadelphia picks

The wind is blowing in at 9.2 mph with temps around 80°, setting up well for an afternoon Under after yesterday’s 5-0 game between Dean Kremer and Taijuan Walker. Both teams have been profitable to the Under this season — Baltimore is 50-59 O/U, and Miami is 50-58. Ranger Suárez has been dominant, posting a 2.13 ERA since May 10 and allowing more than 3 earned runs just once over his last 15 starts (97 IP). Baltimore also ranks in the bottom 10 offensively vs. left-handed pitching. On the other side, Trevor Rogers has quietly put together five straight quality starts and owns a 1.45 ERA over his last 9 starts (56 IP, 9 ER on 29 hits).

Tyler O'Neill projects as the 11th-best home run batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have an advantage today.. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Harrison Bader has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (99% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Harrison Bader will have the upper hand today.. Harrison Bader pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Harrison Bader will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Harrison Bader has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 93.3-mph.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 19th-best hitter in the game.. Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. In the past week, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph lately.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 12th-best hitter in the game.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Bryce Harper will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Over the last 7 days, Bryce Harper's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.1% up to 21.4%.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Ranger Suarez.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Westburg is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. Jordan Westburg will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Otto Kemp will have an edge in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Otto Kemp will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Otto Kemp's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 21.1% on the season to 44.4% over the past two weeks.

Alex Jackson will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez today.. Alex Jackson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.2) suggests that Alex Jackson has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 18.8 actual HR/600.. Alex Jackson's 12.1% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 10th-best field in the game for home runs.. Citizens Bank Park has the 9th-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors.. Trevor Rogers will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. Trevor Rogers's four-seamer rate has risen by 10.5% from last year to this one (31.7% to 42.2%) .. Trevor Rogers has been lucky this year, compiling a 1.44 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.44 — a 3 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Colton Cowser has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.