Kansas City @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense. Alex Bregman has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .293 rate is considerably higher than his .234 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Romy Gonzalez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 19% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound this year. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Romy Gonzalez's true offensive talent to be a .327, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .045 deviation between that mark and his actual .372 wOBA.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense. Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Salvador Perez in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams in action today. Salvador Perez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Salvador Perez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 17.6% to 14.2%.

Roman Anthony's BABIP skill is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for LHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Roman Anthony has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense. Brayan Bello will hold the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams in action today. Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Bobby Witt Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 94.9 mph to 92.9 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for LHB batting average. The shallowest RF dimensions in the league are found in Fenway Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, John Rave will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. John Rave has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 90.2-mph mark.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Jarren Duran is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for LHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage today.

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for LHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Vinnie Pasquantino will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for LHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Mike Yastrzemski tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for LHB batting average. The shallowest RF dimensions in the league are found in Fenway Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Kyle Isbel will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for LHB batting average. The shallowest RF dimensions in the league are found in Fenway Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Adam Frazier will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Adam Frazier's launch angle recently (32.4° over the last week) is considerably better than his 14.3° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Maikel Garcia has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jonathan India ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan India is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.

The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Abraham Toro will get to bat from his strong side against Bailey Falter in this game. Abraham Toro hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Abraham Toro will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Trevor Story's BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Trevor Story will hold the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter today. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Connor Wong will hold the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter today. Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°. Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Carlos Narvaez will have an advantage in today's game. Carlos Narvaez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.