Chicago @ Los Angeles picks
Angel Stadium
CHW vs LAA Picks
MLB Picks
Total Home Runs


Tony Sartori
Betting Analyst
Through 13 starts, Aaron Civale is 2-6 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally concerning, as the right-hander ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), strikeout rate and barrel rate. There may be no better candidate to take advantage than Mike Trout, who boasts an .833 slugging percentage through six plate appearances against Civale. He has homered once during that span and has added two more home runs over his past eight games.
Strikeouts Thrown

Kyle Hendricks o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
Projection 4.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colson Montgomery, Luis Robert Jr., Kyle Teel).. It is expected that we will see a Huge Pitchers Umpire (Brennan Miller) calling pitches today.. Angel Stadium ranks as the #9 park in baseball for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Because of his reverse platoon split, Kyle Hendricks will benefit from matching up with 6 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the other side in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Kyle Hendricks will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Taylor Ward o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Taylor Ward is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Taylor Ward will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs

Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Mike Trout projects as the 9th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Mike Trout will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs

Logan O'Hoppe o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run talent, Logan O'Hoppe ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Logan O'Hoppe will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last week, Logan O'Hoppe's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.4% up to 27.3%.
Total RBIs

Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Despite posting a .309 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Miguel Vargas has been unlucky given the .021 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.
Total RBIs

Zach Neto o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Neto in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Zach Neto is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs

Andrew Benintendi o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Hendricks throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run skill, Jo Adell ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Jo Adell will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases

Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Taylor Ward is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Taylor Ward will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases

Logan O'Hoppe o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run talent, Logan O'Hoppe ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Angel Stadium has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Logan O'Hoppe will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last week, Logan O'Hoppe's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.4% up to 27.3%.