San Francisco @ New York Picks & Props

Luis Matos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game. This season, Luis Matos has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 93.3 mph compared to last year's 89.6 mph mark. Luis Matos's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 11.8% to 18.8%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Matos's true offensive ability to be a .309, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .067 difference between that figure and his actual .242 wOBA.

Dominic Smith is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage over Kodai Senga in today's game. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Compared to last year, Dominic Smith has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 41.2% to 55.4% this season.

Brett Baty will hold the platoon advantage against Kai-Wei Teng in today's matchup. Brett Baty has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.267) may lead us to conclude that Brett Baty has been unlucky this year with his .226 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. Jung Hoo Lee will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kodai Senga in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Jung Hoo Lee's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.4-mph over the course of the season to 100.2-mph in recent games. Over the last week, Jung Hoo Lee's 70% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.7%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kodai Senga today. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Rafael Devers has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.9-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.4-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Heliot Ramos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Heliot Ramos's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 41.9% to 47.1%. With a .324 BABIP this year, Heliot Ramos is ranked in the 82nd percentile.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Patrick Bailey will get to bat from his better side against Kodai Senga in this game. Patrick Bailey's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 39.9% on the season to 57.1% in the past 14 days. Patrick Bailey has been unlucky this year, posting a .248 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .283 — a .035 deviation.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. Cedric Mullins will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kai-Wei Teng today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Cedric Mullins will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.8°, Cedric Mullins has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 28.5° mark in the last two weeks' worth of games. Cedric Mullins's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (15.7°) is significantly higher than his 12.5° mark last year.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Francisco Alvarez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last year's 88.7-mph average. In the last two weeks, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph lately. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Francisco Alvarez has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 21.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.7°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. Francisco Lindor will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Francisco Lindor's true offensive ability to be a .342, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .022 disparity between that figure and his actual .320 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. Juan Soto will have the handedness advantage over Kai-Wei Teng in today's matchup. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Ronny Mauricio will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Kai-Wei Teng today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Ronny Mauricio will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Ronny Mauricio's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.4% up to 23.1%. Ronny Mauricio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, going from 12.6% on the season to 21.4% in the past week.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.242) may lead us to conclude that Andrew Knizner has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .170 actual batting average.

Casey Schmitt pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Casey Schmitt has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.2-mph EV. Casey Schmitt has notched a .334 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 79th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Matt Chapman has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.1% seasonal rate to 20% over the last two weeks. Matt Chapman has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.5-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 94.8-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an advantage in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Brandon Nimmo will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 20th-best batter in the league. Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. Pete Alonso will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Pete Alonso has made big improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 13.2% rate last year to 19.4% this season.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Mark Vientos will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Mark Vientos has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 7.6% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last week. Mark Vientos has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark. In the past two weeks, Mark Vientos has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 19.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 11°.

Jeff McNeil is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums. Jeff McNeil will have the handedness advantage over Kai-Wei Teng today. Jeff McNeil will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Jeff McNeil has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 6% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Willy Adames is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Willy Adames pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Willy Adames has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.9-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 94.9-mph. Over the past 14 days, Willy Adames's 52.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.6%.