Houston @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which tends to lead to worse offense. Alex Bregman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, going from 40.7% on the season to 33.3% in the past 7 days. Alex Bregman has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .301 figure is inflated compared to his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in MLB for left-handed batting average. The shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage against Walker Buehler in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which tends to lead to worse offense. Walker Buehler will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve today. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Altuve in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which tends to lead to worse offense. Walker Buehler will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz in today's matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yainer Diaz today. Yainer Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (3.7° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit lower than his 10.1° seasonal mark.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which tends to lead to worse offense. Walker Buehler will hold the platoon advantage over Jeremy Pena today. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Jeremy Pena has been lucky this year, putting up a .375 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .046 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in MLB for left-handed batting average. Roman Anthony has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the Houston Astros.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in MLB for left-handed batting average. Jesus Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage over Walker Buehler in today's matchup. Jesus Sanchez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 19th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in MLB for left-handed batting average. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the Houston Astros. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in MLB for left-handed batting average. Victor Caratini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Victor Caratini has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 103.3-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 93.1-mph. Victor Caratini's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (14°) is a considerable increase over his 7.5° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Abraham Toro will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Colton Gordon in this game. Abraham Toro hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the Houston Astros. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Romy Gonzalez will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game. Romy Gonzalez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Trevor Story will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon in today's matchup. Trevor Story has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Over the last 7 days, Ramon Urias's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.9% up to 16.7%. In the last week's worth of games, Ramon Urias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.1-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph recently. In the past 7 days, Ramon Urias's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the Houston Astros.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Carlos Correa is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Carlos Correa has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 95.2-mph over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Carlos Narvaez will hold the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon today. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the Houston Astros. Carlos Narvaez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Christian Walker has been unlucky this year, putting up a .298 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .028 deviation.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average talent is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Mauricio Dubon has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 12.1% to 20.2%. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 42.6% on the season to 57.8% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for RHB batting average. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an edge in today's matchup.

Masataka Yoshida has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.