Baltimore @ Chicago picks

Rogers is a strikeout-reliant pitcher, but Hoerner doesn’t strike out against the pitches he throws, with a 5% K-rate against the fastball and a similar rate against the changeup. Hoerner ranks inside the Top 5 in both hard-hit rate and batting average against the changeup and the fastball, which make up over 60% of the arsenal Rogers throws.

The Wrigley winds are blowing in at 14 miles per hour this afternoon and Cade Horton has been in great form ahead of his matchup with the visiting Orioles. 
The rookie has gone Over this number three of his last four starts and even on an 85-90-pitch pitch count, he can pitch into the sixth today at home where he has gone 4-1 to the Over on this number across his last five starts at Wrigley.
The Orioles had the bats going in the Toronto series, but it was 110 degrees and the ball was flying at Camden. The pitching setting is in Horton’s favor and I’d play this Over to -125. 

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 17th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Gunnar Henderson will hold the platoon advantage against Cade Horton in today's game.. Gunnar Henderson has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 8.8% seasonal rate to 17.4% over the last week.. Over the last two weeks, Gunnar Henderson's 60% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.2%.

The Chicago Cubs projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.. Among every team playing today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.. Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Trevor Rogers in today's matchup.. Trevor Rogers has utilized his four-seam fastball 10.2% more often this season (41.9%) than he did last season (31.7%).. Trevor Rogers has been lucky this year, compiling a 1.49 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.53 — a 3.04 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 75th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. In the league, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. Coby Mayo has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11% seasonal rate to 20% over the last week.. Coby Mayo has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the last week to his seasonal figure of 90.7-mph.. Coby Mayo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, increasing from 13.3% on the season to 28.6% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Among every team playing today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Michael Busch will hold that advantage today.. Michael Busch's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 18.1% to 24.2%.. In the last two weeks, Michael Busch's 34.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 24.2%.

When estimating his home run talent, Colton Cowser ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Cade Horton throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge today.. Colton Cowser has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. Over the past 7 days, Colton Cowser's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.6% up to 40%.